Conspiracy: Why the Rational Believe the Irrational

by Michael Shermer

Overview

"A well-written and essential tool for those navigating today's complicated geopolitical landscape."—Library Journal Best-selling author Michael Shermer presents an overarching theory of conspiracy theories—who believes them and why, which ones are real, and what we should do about them.

Nothing happens by accident, everything is connected, and there are no coincidences: that is the essence of conspiratorial thinking. Long a fringe part of the American political landscape, conspiracy theories are now mainstream: 147 members of Congress voted in favor of objections to the 2020 presidential election based on an unproven theory about a rigged electoral process promoted by the mysterious group QAnon. But this is only the latest example in a long history of ideas that include the satanic panics of the 1980s, the New World Order and Vatican conspiracy theories, fears about fluoridated water, speculations about President John F. Kennedy's assassination, and the notions that the Sandy Hook massacre was a false-flag operation and 9/11 was an inside job.

In Conspiracy, Michael Shermer presents an overarching review of conspiracy theories—who believes them and why, which ones are real, and what we should do about them. Trust in conspiracy theories, he writes, cuts across gender, age, race, income, education level, occupational status—and even political affiliation. One reason that people believe these conspiracies, Shermer argues, is that enough of them are real that we should be constructively conspiratorial: elections have been rigged (LBJ's 1948 Senate race); medical professionals have intentionally harmed patients in their care (Tuskegee); your government does lie to you (Watergate, Iran-Contra, and Afghanistan); and, tragically, some adults do conspire to sexually abuse children. But Shermer reveals that other factors are also in play: anxiety and a sense of loss of control play a role in conspiratorial cognition patterns, as do certain personality traits.

This engaging book will be an important read for anyone concerned about the future direction of American politics, as well as anyone who's watched friends or family fall into patterns of conspiratorial thinking.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781421449074
Publisher:	Johns Hopkins University Press
Publication date:	02/27/2024
Pages:	376
Sales rank:	528,072
Product dimensions:	6.10(w) x 8.90(h) x 1.00(d)

About the Author

Michael Shermer (SANTA BARBARA, CA) is the publisher of Skeptic magazine, a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University, the host of the popular podcast The Michael Shermer Show, and the Skeptic Substack weekly columnist. He is the author of many New York Times–bestselling books, including Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other Confusions of Our Time, The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies—How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths, and The Moral Arc: How Science Makes Us Better People.

Table of Contents

Apologia
Prologue. The Conspiracy Effect: Why Smart People Believe Blatantly Wrong Things for Apparently Rational Reasons
Part I. Why People Believe Conspiracy Theories
Chapter 1. Conspiracies and Conspiracy Theories: The Difference in Thinking and the Difference It Makes
Chapter 2. A Brief History of Conspiracy Theories and Conspiracists: Toward a Science of Conspiracism
Chapter 3. Proxy and Tribal Conspiracism: How Conspiratorial Beliefs Are Reinforced as Truths
Chapter 4. Constructive Conspiracism: Paranoia, Pessimism, and the Evolutionary Origins of Conspiracy Cognition
Chapter 5. A Case Study in Conspiracism: The Sovereign Citizens Conspiracy Theory
Part II. How to Determine Which Conspiracy Theories Are Real
Chapter 6. The Conspiracy Detection Kit: How to Tell If a Conspiracy Theory Is True or False
Chapter 7. Truthers and Birthers: The 9/11 and Obama Conspiracy Theories
Chapter 8. JFK Blown Away: The Mother of All Conspiracy Theories
Chapter 9. Real Conspiracies: What If They Really Are Out to Get You?
Chapter 10. The Deadliest Conspiracy in History: The Trigger of World War I and How Conspiracies Really Work
Chapter 11. Real and Imagined Enemies: Conspiracies in Reality and in Our Imaginations
Part III. Talking to Conspiracists and Rebuilding Trust in Truth
Chapter 12. How to Talk to Conspiracy Theorists: Engaging with People with Whom We Disagree
Chapter 13. How to Rebuild Trust in Truth: Reason, Rationality, and Empiricism in Reality-Based Communities
Coda. What People Believe About Conspiracy Theories and Why: Results of the Skeptic Research Center Survey
Acknowledgments
Notes
Index

What People are Saying About This

Carol Tavris

Conspiracists are often dismissed as fools or psychopaths, but Michael Shermer shows we are all susceptible: left and right, old and young, educated and illiterate. In this erudite account of the history and mystery of conspiratorial beliefs, he explores the devastating social consequences conspiracies can create—along with their powerful psychological and evolutionary benefits.

Jan-Willem van Prooijen

I enjoyed reading this book tremendously. Seeking to debunk some common yet irrational conspiracy theories, Shermer explains what drives people's belief in them while also acknowledging that real conspiracies do occur. Along the way, he delves deeper into a range of other interesting questions, examining what the evidence says about a Kennedy or 9/11 conspiracy, how to detect if conspiracy theories are likely true or false, how to talk to conspiracy theorists, and the details of the real conspiracy that ultimately gave rise to World War I. Shermer does a terrific job making this complex yet interesting research field accessible to any reader.

From the Publisher

I enjoyed reading this book tremendously. Seeking to debunk some common yet irrational conspiracy theories, Shermer explains what drives people's belief in them while also acknowledging that real conspiracies do occur. Along the way, he delves deeper into a range of other interesting questions, examining what the evidence says about a Kennedy or 9/11 conspiracy, how to detect if conspiracy theories are likely true or false, how to talk to conspiracy theorists, and the details of the real conspiracy that ultimately gave rise to World War I. Shermer does a terrific job making this complex yet interesting research field accessible to any reader.
—Jan-Willem van Prooijen, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, editor of The Psychology of Political Polarization

Conspiracists are often dismissed as fools or psychopaths, but Michael Shermer shows we are all susceptible: left and right, old and young, educated and illiterate. In this erudite account of the history and mystery of conspiratorial beliefs, he explores the devastating social consequences conspiracies can create—along with their powerful psychological and evolutionary benefits.
—Carol Tavris, coauthor of Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me)

Searingly smart and fascinatingly informative, Conspiracy is also an exhilarating read. With his trademark flair, brilliance, and hawk-eyed clarity, Michael Shermer helps us make sense of a world run amok.
—Amy Chua, Yale Law Professor and author of Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother and Political Tribes: Group Instinct and the Fate of Nations

Imagined conspiracies claim one implausible explanation for many real problems. But some conspiracy claims are true, and more were true in our tribal past. How can you tell actual conspiracies from crazy theories? Once again, Michael Shermer has written a sparkling, irresistible, astonishing romp through one of today's biggest problems.
—Jared Diamond, author of Guns, Germs, and Steel

Amy Chua

Searingly smart and fascinatingly informative, Conspiracy is also an exhilarating read. With his trademark flair, brilliance, and hawk-eyed clarity, Michael Shermer helps us make sense of a world run amok.

Jared Diamond

Imagined conspiracies claim one implausible explanation for many real problems. But some conspiracy claims are true, and more were true in our tribal past. How can you tell actual conspiracies from crazy theories? Once again, Michael Shermer has written a sparkling, irresistible, astonishing romp through one of today's biggest problems.

Editorial Reviews

Conspiracies succeed thanks to repetition, and Shermer's numerous examples prove how entrenched these beliefs are within contemporary American culture. The book includes solid tips on how to assess a conspiracy theory's veracity, how to talk to conspiracists, and how to restore trust and truth in national conversations....A well-written and essential tool for those navigating today's complicated geopolitical landscape.
—Library Journal (starred review)

A fascinating tour of oddball wrongheadedness, with gentle but firm prescriptions for combatting it.
—Kirkus Reviews

What Shermer's book does is delve into the reasons why we are so ready to believe that, to borrow a phrase from perhaps the ultimate conspiracy theory work of culture, the X-Files: The Truth is Out There....Part of why we think that is because our levels of trust in those in power has plummeted in recent years....The answer, according to Shermer, is very simple. If everyone told the truth, and we all believed that was the case, there would be no need for conspiracy theories.
—The Independent

Deep and engaging.
—Ralph Lewis, MD, Psychology Today

Many books about conspiracies and conspiracy theories exist, but this one stands out as an authoritative, very readable overview of the subject.
—Choice

Though we may think conspiracy theories appeal only to the naïve or uneducated, Shermer dispels that myth, showing how pervasive they really are.His book doesn't leave readers feeling overwhelmed or powerless, but offers a primer on how not to be duped—and how to help others who've fallen prey to conspiracies.
—Greater Good Magazine

From the Publisher

★ 09/01/2022

Shermer's (Why People Believe Weird Things) latest work is organized in two parts: the first details the psychology behind belief in conspiracies; the second half uses this knowledge to break down popular conspiracies, including the 9/11 truth movement, Obama birthers, and the JFK assassination. In addition to terms and examples, there are solid insights that show that when faced with facts that contradict belief, most will double down on their beliefs, creating a cognitive dissonance that's hard to counter. Conspiracies succeed thanks to repetition, and Shermer's numerous examples prove how entrenched these beliefs are within contemporary American culture. The book includes solid tips on how to assess a conspiracy theory's veracity, how to talk to conspiracists, and how to restore trust and truth in national conversations. A copy of Skeptic Research Center's 2021 poll on conspiracies appears at the end of the book, providing insights into the composition of current conspiracists—a composition that may be surprising to some. VERDICT A well-written and essential tool for those navigating today's complicated geopolitical landscape.—Tina Panik

Library Journal

2022-07-13
The bestselling author and publisher of Skeptic magazine investigates why people believe conspiracy theories.

For many contemporary Americans, QAnon is an alluring explanation for the unexplainable. Technically, writes Shermer, “it’s not even wrong” because its claims are so broad that it resists being proven wrong. There may be such a thing as a “deep state”—even if, as the author points out, most people aren’t good enough at keeping secrets or carrying out their part in conspiracies to make them work. As evidence, he cites two assassinations. The plot to kill Abraham Lincoln also included multiple other targets, but only John Wilkes Booth succeeded in his assignment. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand almost happened by accident, since Gavrilo Princip lost sight of his target and only stumbled on the car because of a driver’s error. The conspiracy theory that evolved led to catastrophe: Austro-Hungarians assumed that the Serbian government was in on the plot, and World War I ensued. “Imagine how differently the twentieth century would have unfolded without the Great War,” writes Shermer, “sparing the lives of tens of millions of people…[and] almost certainly…no Hitler, no Nazis, no World War II, and no Holocaust.” The author writes that while the conspiracy theories surrounding John F. Kennedy’s death are understandable, given that governments, spy agencies, and the CIA harbor secrets, there’s no good evidence to support any postulate other than that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. Noting that there are degrees of belief in conspiracy theory—36% of people Shermer surveyed believe that the government is hiding information about the JFK assassination, while, only 11% believe that 5G towers increase the risk of Covid-19 infection—the author suggests that perhaps the best thing to do with the QAnon believer at the dinner table is to try to listen sympathetically while pushing back respectfully. Better still is to stop the spread of misinformation in the first place, which is far more difficult.

A fascinating tour of oddball wrongheadedness, with gentle but firm prescriptions for combatting it.

Kirkus Reviews