Critical Transitions in Nature and Society available in Paperback
Critical Transitions in Nature and Society
- ISBN-10:
- 0691122040
- ISBN-13:
- 9780691122045
- Pub. Date:
- 07/26/2009
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- ISBN-10:
- 0691122040
- ISBN-13:
- 9780691122045
- Pub. Date:
- 07/26/2009
- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
Critical Transitions in Nature and Society
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Overview
Marten Scheffer accessibly describes the dynamical systems theory behind critical transitions, covering catastrophe theory, bifurcations, chaos, and more. He gives examples of critical transitions in lakes, oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, climate, evolution, and human societies. And he demonstrates how to deal with these transitions, offering practical guidance on how to predict tipping points, how to prevent "bad" transitions, and how to promote critical transitions that work for us and not against us. Scheffer shows the time is ripe for understanding and managing critical transitions in the vast and complex systems in which we live. This book can also serve as a textbook and includes a detailed appendix with equations.
- Provides an accessible introduction to dynamical systems theory
- Covers critical transitions in lakes, oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, the climate, evolution, and human societies
- Explains how to predict tipping points
- Offers strategies for preventing "bad" transitions and triggering "good" ones
- Features an appendix with equations
Product Details
ISBN-13: | 9780691122045 |
---|---|
Publisher: | Princeton University Press |
Publication date: | 07/26/2009 |
Series: | Princeton Studies in Complexity , #16 |
Edition description: | New Edition |
Pages: | 400 |
Product dimensions: | 5.50(w) x 8.40(h) x 0.90(d) |
About the Author
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments xiii
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Coral Reef Collapse 2
1.2 The Birth of the Sahara Desert 3
1.3 Shifts in Societies 5
1.4 Content of this Book 6
Part I Theory of Critical Transitions
Chapter 2 Alternative Stable States 11
2.1 The Basics 13
2.2 Some Mechanisms 25
2.3 Synthesis 36
Chapter 3 Cycles and Chaos 37
3.1 The Limit Cycle 37
3.2 Complex Dynamics 42
3.3 Basin Boundary Collision 50
3.4 Synthesis 54
Chapter 4 Emergent Patterns in Complex Systems 55
4.1 Spatial Patterns 56
4.2 Stability of Complex Interacting Networks 65
4.3 The Adaptive Cycle Theory 75
4.4 Synthesis 79
Chapter 5 Implications of Fluctuations, Heterogeneity, and Diversity 81
5.1 Permanent Change 82
5.2 Spatial Heterogeneity and Modularity 85
5.3 Diversity of Players 90
5.4 Synthesis 95
Chapter 6 Conclusion: From Theoretical Concepts to Reality 96
6.1 Alternative Stable States 96
6.2 Basins of Attraction 98
6.3 Resilience 101
6.4 Adaptive Capacity 103
6.5 Critical Transitions 104
6.6 Synthesis 104
Part II Case Studies
Chapter 7 Lakes 109
7.1 Transparency of Shallow Lakes 110
7.2 Dynamics 125
7.3 Other Alternative Stable States 131
7.4 Synthesis 138
Chapter 8 Climate 139
8.1 Deep Time Climate Shifts 141
8.2 Glaciation Cycles 149
8.3 Abrupt Climate Change on Shorter Timescales 157
8.4 Synthesis 164
Chapter 9 Evolution 166
9.1 Introduction 166
9.2 Early Animal Evolution and the Cambrian Explosion 168
9.3 The End-Permian Extinction 172
9.4 The Angiosperm Radiation 174
9.5 From Dinosaurs to Mammals 176
9.6 Global Warming and the Birth of Primates, Deer, and Horses 177
9.7 In Search of the Big Picture178
9.8 Synthesis 184
Chapter 10 Oceans 186
10.1 Open Ocean Regime Shifts 187
10.2 Coastal Ecosystems 201
10.3 Synthesis 213
Chapter 11 Terrestrial Ecosystems 216
11.1 Vegetation-Climate Shifts in Dry Regions 216
11.2 Small-Scale Transitions in Semiarid Vegetation 221
11.3 Boreal Forests and Tundra 226
11.4 The Rise and Fall of Raised Bogs 230
11.5 Species Extinction in Fragmented Landscapes 234
11.6 Epidemics as Critical Transitions 237
11.7 Synthesis 239
Chapter 12 Humans 240
12.1 Shifting Cells 242
12.2 Shifting Minds 243
12.3 Behavioral Lock-In 244
12.4 Inertia and Shifts in Group Attitudes 246
12.5 Societies in Crisis 250
12.6 Synthesis 257
Chapter 13 Conclusion: Critical Transitions In a Complex World 259
Part III Dealing with Critical Transitions
Chapter 14 How to Know if Alternative Basins of Attraction Exist 265
14.1 Hints from Field Data 265
14.2 Experimental Evidence 270
14.3 Mechanistic Insight 273
14.4 Synthesis 280
Chapter 15 How to Know If a Threshold Is Near 282
15.1 The Theory: Signs of Upcoming Transitions 283
15.2 Precursors of Transitions in Real Systems 290
15.3 Reliability of the Signals 293
15.4 Synthesis 294
Chapter 16 The Winding Road from Science to Policy 296
16.1 Exploiting Nature in the Smartest Way 297
16.2 Barriers to Good Solutions 303
16.3 Synthesis 309
Chapter 17 New Approaches to Managing Change 311
17.1 Promoting Good Transitions 312
17.2 Preventing Bad Transitions 320
17.3 Synthesis 324
Chapter 18 Prospects 326
18.1 The Delicate Issue of the Burden of Proof 326
18.2 Toward a Practical Science of Critical Transitions 327
Appendix 329
A.1 Logistic Growth 329
A.2 Allee Effect 332
A.3 Overexploitation 332
A.4 Competition between Two Species 334
A.5 Multispecies Competition 338
A.6 Predator-Prey Cycles 339
A.7 The Hopf Bifurcation 341
A.8 Stabilization by Spatial Heterogeneity 341
A.9 Basin Boundary Collision 344
A.10 Periodic Forcing 344
A.11 Self-Organized Patterns 345
A.12 Alternative Stable States in Shallow Lakes 347
A.13 Floating Plants 348
A.14 Contingency in Behavior 350
Glossary 353
Notes 359
Index 379
What People are Saying About This
"This is an important book. Critical transitions and resilience are powerful explanatory tools in ecology today, and it is significant that Scheffer, the leading expert in the applications of critical transitions in ecology, has written a monograph in this area. Scheffer is an excellent writer, and a very good expositor of theoretical concepts in ecology. The ideas in this book should be part of every educated person's mental framework."—Donald L. DeAngelis, University of Miami"This is a timely book that will have considerable impact on multiple disciplines, including ecology, the social sciences, and economics. It focuses on the theory, examples, and implications of complex systems, particularly critical transitions resulting from positive feedbacks. Scheffer has always been a master at presenting complex issues in a simple way, and this book is no exception. This is a rare gem."—Jon Norberg, Stockholm University