Table of Contents
List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes xiii
Preface xvii
About the Authors xx
Part I Fundamentals of Deception and Counterdeception
Chapter 1 Deception: The Basics 3
Why Deception? 6
Definitions 9
Deception 9
Counterdeception 10
Counterintelligence 11
Operations 12
Psychological Operations 12
The Deception Target 12
The Decision Maker 12
The Intelligence Service 13
A Defined Group 14
Basic Principles 17
Truth 17
Denial 19
Deceit 21
Misdirection 23
Roles of Operations and Intelligence 25
Notes 28
Chapter 2 The Methodology 31
The OODA Loop 32
OODA Loop Perspectives 33
Perspective 1-Understand Your Own OODA Loop 34
Perspective 2-Understand the Adversary's OODA Loop 35
Perspective 3-Understand How the Adversary Views Your OODA Loop 36
Planning Deception: The Inverse OODA Loop 37
Executing Deception: The Forward OODA Loop 40
Notes 43
Chapter 3 The Outcome Scenario 45
Outcome Scenarios: The PMESII View 45
Political 47
Military 48
Economic 50
Social 51
Information 52
Infrastructure 54
Notes 55
Chapter 4 The Target 57
Individual Decision Modeling 57
Rational Models 58
Administrative Models 60
Emotional Models 61
Collective Decision Modeling 62
Game Theory 63
Modeling Alternative Decisions 65
Cultural Modeling 67
Power Distance Index 68
Individualism versus Collectivism 69
Uncertainty Avoidance 70
Masculinity versus Femininity 72
Long-Term Orientation versus Short-Term Orientation 73
Indulgence versus Restraint 74
Notes 76
Chapter 5 The Story 79
What Makes a Good Story? 79
Characteristics of a Good Deception Story 80
Plausibility 81
Reinforcement 84
Influence Nets 86
Notes 88
Chapter 6 The Channels 89
Understanding the Channels 90
Sensor Mapping 91
Observation 92
Orientation 94
Channel Characterization 94
Modeling the "Black Box" of Orientation 96
The Case of the Daesh 2013-2014 Intelligence Organization 96
Channel Exploitation 99
Notes 101
Chapter 7 The Traditional Intelligence Channels 103
OSINT 104
COMINT 107
Helping COMINT Deception Succeed 109
Deceiving Traffic Analysis 110
HUMINT 111
Overt HUMINT 112
Clandestine HUMINT 114
IMINT 115
Technical Collection 117
Radar 117
Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) 118
Foreign Instrumentation Signals Intelligence (FISINT) 119
Acoustic and Infrasound 119
Notes 120
Chapter 8 The Cyberspace Channel 121
Deception in Cyberspace 122
Web-Based Deception 122
News and Reference Media 123
E-mails 124
Social Media 124
Memetic Conflict 125
Web-Based CNE/CNA 126
Web-Based Channels 127
The Tools of Cyber Operations 129
Standalone Computers and Intranets 134
Social Engineering 134
Deception in Hardware 137
Cyber Deception 137
How Cyber Deception Works 138
Projecting a Deception 139
Notes 139
Chapter 9 Planning and Executing Deception 143
Checking the Decision/Action Model: Red Team Analysis 143
Checking for Unfavorable Outcomes: Alternative Analysis 144
Deconfliction 147
Overview of the Execution Process 148
Achieving Surprise 149
Operating inside the Opponent's OODA Loop 152
Attending to Details and Timing 156
Managing the Developing Scenario 157
Notes 159
Chapter 10 Preparing to Counter Deception 161
Assessing Vulnerability 162
Observation [Collection] 162
Orientation (Analysis) 164
Decision/Action (The Decision Maker) 167
Assessing the Threat 168
Assess the Situation 168
Assess the Adversary's History, Capability, and Motivations 168
Assess the Adversary's Understanding of Your OODA Loop 170
Notes 170
Chapter 11 Identifying Deception 173
Deception Detection via Channel Management 173
Evaluating the Source 176
Literal Sources 176
Nonliteral Sources 181
Evaluating the Channel 184
Evaluating the Evidence 186
Traps to Avoid in Evaluating Evidence 186
Evaluating Alternative Hypotheses 187
Notes 188
Part II Exercises
Chapter 12 Sensor Napping and Channel Tracking Exercises 193
Sensor Mapping Exercises 193
Example Exercise in Sensor Modeling: Pirating in the North Sea 194
Sensor Mapping Exercise 12.1: The Red 5th Battalion 197
Sensor Mapping Exercise 12.2: Hells Cross Motorcycle Gang 198
Sensor Mapping Exercise 12.3: People's Party Militia Wing 201
Channel Management Exercises-Deception Projection 203
Channel Management Exercise 12.1: Pick a Port 204
Channel Management Exercise 12.2: Bangui Backroads 206
Note 208
Chapter 13 General Deception Planning Exercises 209
Exercise 1 Derailing a Trade Negotiation 209
Key Participants 210
Guidance 211
Exercise 2 Protecting Drug Cartel Shipments 211
Sea Delivery Option 213
Airborne Delivery Option 213
Cartel OODA 213
US OODA 214
Guidance 216
Exercise 3 Taking Down the Fordow Uranium Enrichment Facility 216
Fordow Background 216
Recent Events 217
Key Personnel at the Fordow Facility 218
Iranian OODA 220
Israeli OODA 220
Guidance 221
Exercise 4: Countering Israeli Efforts to Take Down Fordow 222
Iranian OODA 222
Israeli OODA 223
Guidance 224
Exercise 5 Supporting a NEO Evacuation 224
Background 224
Daesh Background 226
Daesh OODA 227
Libya Dawn Background 227
Libya Dawn OODA 228
Zintan Brigades 228
NATO Force 228
NATO OODA 229
Guidance 230
Exercise 6 Disrupting Boko Haram Operations 230
Boko Haram Background 231
Key Officers 231
Your Resources 233
Channels 234
Guidance 234
Notes 234
Chapter 14 Military Deception Planning Exercises 235
MILDEC CONOR Example: Operation Bulldozer 235
Situation 235
Basic CONOP Format 237
Exercise 1 Operation Lights Out 240
Scenario 240
Situation 243
Task 244
Guidance 246
Exercise 2 Operation Timber Float 246
Scenario 246
Task 250
Guidance 250
Exercise 3 Operation Closing Time 252
Scenario 252
Task 253
Guidance 254
Chapter 15 Deception Detection Exercises 255
Exercise 1 The Valley of Doubt 255
Scenario 255
Situation 256
Task 257
Guidance 260
Exercise 2 The YUTA Ghost 261
Scenario 261
Situation 261
Task 261
Guidance 267
Bibliography 269
Index 273
