Deterrence under Uncertainty:: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare

by Edward Geist

Overview

For decades, films such as WarGames and The Terminator have warned that the combination of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons might be a recipe for an apocalypse. Might these prophecies of doom become reality in coming decades?

Using insights from computer science, Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely. Detailed chapters explain how the landscape of nuclear deterrence is changing and debunks the myths of machine intelligence and nuclear weapons. This book gives a practitioner's perspective on how artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies could change the role of nuclear weapons in international relations.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780192886323
Publisher:	Oxford University Press
Publication date:	11/30/2023
Pages:	288
Product dimensions:	4.50(w) x 1.70(h) x 0.70(d)

About the Author

Edward Geist, Policy Researcher, RAND Corporation

Edward Geist is a Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation, where his research interests include Russia (primarily defense policy), civil defense, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and particularly the potential impact of emerging technologies on nuclear strategy. He is the author of Armageddon Insurance (University of North Carolina Press, 2019).

Table of Contents

Introduction: Artificial Intelligence and the Nuclear DilemmaThe Emerging Strategic EnvironmentFrom Celluloid Nightmares to Silicon RealitiesNo Place to Hide? Recipe for a WOPRFog-of-War MachinesStrategic Stability in a Deception-Dominant WorldConclusion: A Case for (Tempered) OptimismAppendix A: The Mathematics of TrackingAppendix B: A Bayesian Perspective on Camouflage, Concealment, and DeceptionAppendix C: A Rudimentary Model of Ontological ConfrontationIndex

Editorial Reviews

"Geist, steeped in the history and craft of deception as a specialist in defence policy and security, thinks even the smartest agent can be made self destructively stupid by subterfuge. Fakery is so cheap and effective that Geist envisions a future where AI-driven "fog-of-war machines" create a world that favours neither side, but backs "those who seek to confound"." — Simon Ings, New Scientist

"Deterrence Under Uncertainty is an accessible exploration into the challenges and opportunities that arise when integrating AI with nuclear warfare. The concepts may be complex, but Geist makes them accessible to the average reader while offering more detailed explanations in the appendices." — Brock Sargent, H-Net Reviews

"Some books are erudite and learned. Some books are entertaining and even funny. Some books offer a whole different perspective on a topic. Some books teach interesting things. Some books are well written. Deterrence Under Uncertainty by Edward Geist is exemplary in each of these categories. It is essential reading for a world awash with conversations about the revolutionary impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on armed conflict." — Herbert Lin, Arms Control Today

From the Publisher