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Overview
From the most basic concepts and measures to developments in spatial demography and hazard modeling at the research frontier, Essential Demographic Methods brings out the wider appeal of demography in its connections across the sciences and humanities. It is a lively, compact guide for understanding quantitative population analysis in the social and biological world.
Product Details
| ISBN-13: | 9780674045576 |
|---|---|
| Publisher: | Harvard University Press |
| Publication date: | 06/23/2014 |
| Pages: | 312 |
| Product dimensions: | 6.20(w) x 9.30(h) x 1.20(d) |
About the Author
Table of Contents
List of Figures and Tables xi
Preface xv
Introduction: Why Study Demography? 1
1 Exponential Growth 5
1.1 The Balancing Equation 5
1.2 The Growth Rate R 9
1.3 The Exponential Curve 14
1.4 Models and Parameters 16
*1.5 Taylor Series 19
*1.6 Logistic Growth 22
1.7 Doubling Times 24
2 Periods and Cohorts 30
2.1 Lexis Diagrams 30
2.2 Period Person-Years Lived 33
2.3 The Crude Rate Model 35
2.4 The Infant Mortality Rate 37
*2.5 Person-Years and Areas 39
2.6 Cohort Person-Years Lived 41
2.7 The Stationary Population Identity 44
3 Cohort Mortality 48
3.1 Cohort Survival by Analogy 48
3.2 Probabilities of Dying 52
3.3 Columns of the Cohort Life Table 54
3.3.1 King Edward's Children 54
3.3.2 From nLx to ex 59
3.3.3 The Radix 61
*3.4 Hazards and Survivors 63
*3.5 Gompertz Hazards 65
3.6 Annuities and Insurance 71
3.7 Mortality of the 1300s and 2000s 74
4 Cohort Fertility 79
4.1 Generational Renewal 79
4.2 Age-Specific Fertility 83
4.3 ASFRs and the NRR 84
4.4 Cohort Parity 86
4.5 Natural Fertility 89
5 Population Projection 98
5.1 Transition Matrices 98
5.2 Structural Zeros 101
5.3 The Leslie Matrix Subdiagonal 103
*5.4 The Leslie Matrix First Row 106
5.5 Projecting Fillies, Mares, Seniors 110
*5.6 Multi-State Tables 114
*5.7 Population Renewal 116
*5.8 Variable r and the Lexis Surface 119
6 Period Fertility 125
6.1 Period Measures 125
6.2 Period Age-Specific Fertility 128
6.3 Period NRR, GRR, and TFR 130
*6.4 Log(GRR) Plots 133
6.5 Age-Standardized Rates 136
*6.6 Tempo and Quantum 138
6.7 Princeton Indices 141
6.8 Coale and Trussell's M and m 145
7 Period Mortality 153
7.1 Period Lifetables 153
7.2 Gaps and Lags 157
7.3 The 1660s and Laws of Mortality 150
7.4 Graunt's Model Lifetable 162
7.5 Coale-Demeny Model Lifetables 164
7.6 Brass Relational Logit Models 165
*7.7 Lee-Carter Models 369
8 Heterogeneous Risks 174
8.1 Fleterogeneity 174
8.2 Multiple Decrements 175
*8.3 Competing Risks 179
*8.4 Calculations with Hazards 181
*8.5 Lifeluck, Risk, and Frailty 185
*8.6 Proportional Hazards 187
*8.7 Cox Regression Estimation 191
*8.8 Frailty Models 194
9 Marriage and Family 201
9.1 The Complexity of Marriage 201
9.2 First Marriage by Analogy 203
9.3 The SMAFM 206
*9.4 The Singulate Mean Formula 209
9.5 Marity 212
10 Stable Age Structures 218
10.1 Age Pyramids 218
10.2 Stationary Equivalent Populations 221
10.3 Consequences of Unchanging Rates 224
10.4 Stable Age Pyramids 229
10.5 The Many Faces of Lotka's r 233
*10.6 The Euler-Lotka Equation 235
*10.7 Life Left in Stable Populations 241
10.8 Population Momentum 243
11 Migration and Location 250
11.1 Spatial Demography 250
11.2 Flows of People 251
11.3 Concentrations 256
*11.4 Random Walks 262
11.5 GIS and Cartograms 265
Conclusion 271
Appendix A Sources and Notes 273
Appendix B Useful Formulas 275
Bibliography 279
Index 285