Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century: Volume 2 A Comparative Perspective

by William Potter (Editor), Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova (Editor)

Overview

This volume provides the most comprehensive and authoritative projections of nuclear proliferation over the next decade and offers a range of practical nonproliferation measures.

The authors address a set of overarching questions regarding the propensity of selected states from different regions of the world to "go nuclear," the sources of national decisions to do so, and the potential for one state's proliferation behavior to impact on that of other states. In addition, authors address the most effective policy tools available for impeding nuclear weapons spread. Although this volume is not the first effort to look systematically and comparatively at nuclear decision-making, it is unique in its combination of future orientation, comparative perspective, and emphasis on harnessing the insights from social science theory and country case studies to aid policy makers in forecasting nuclear proliferation developments.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780804769716
Publisher:	Stanford University Press
Publication date:	08/03/2010
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	488
Product dimensions:	6.10(w) x 8.90(h) x 1.10(d)

About the Author

William C. Potter is Director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova is a Research Associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments vii

Part I Introduction

1 An Introduction to Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century William C. Potter Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova 3

Part II Middle East

2 Will Egypt Seek Nuclear Weapons? An Assessment of Motivations, Constraints, Consequences, and Policy Options Jim Walsh 13

3 Pride and Prejudice: Understanding Iran's Nuclear Program Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova 42

4 Saudi Petro-Nukes? Riyadh's Nuclear Intentions and Regime Survival Strategies Ibrahim al-Marashi 76

5 The Syrian Nuclear Puzzle Leonard S. Spector Deborah R. Berman 100

Part III East Asia

6 The Perils of Prediction: Japan's Once and Future Nuclear Status Etel Solingen 131

7 South Korean Nuclear Decision Making Scott Snyder 158

8 Taiwan and Nuclear Weaponization: Incentives versus Disincentives Monte Bullard Jing-dong Yuan 182

Part IV Europe

9 Nuclear Weapons in the Balkans: Why Yugoslavia Tried and Serbia Will Not Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova 205

10 Turkey in Transition: Toward or Away from Nuclear Weapons? Jessica C. Varnum 229

11 Ukraine: A Postnuclear Country Nikolai Sokov 255

Part V Other Regions

12 Australia: A Potential Future Nuclear Proliferator? Wayne Reynolds John Simpson 285

13 From Pariah to Nuclear Poster Boy: How Plausible Is a Reversal? Jean du Preez Thomas Meeting 302

Part VI Conclusion

14 In Search of Proliferation Trends and Tendencies William C. Potter Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova 337

Notes 357

Contributors 441

Index 447

Editorial Reviews

"Students, academics, and, yes, practitioners will find much to admire in the analysis contained in both volumes . . . The two volumes add to a rich qualitative literature on proliferation, while applying rigorous quantitative analysis to proliferation cases. The contributing factors for proliferation are widely acknowledged and include domestic drivers, economic and security concerns, as well as regime and leadership types . . . The two-volume set on Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century is helpful in many valuable ways. There are sound analytical reasons for concluding that, despite the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, the sky is not falling, nor is it likely to fall over the next decade."—Michael Krepon, Nonproliferation Review

"This impressive—nearly 800 pages—collective study aims at taking a fresh look at the causes of nuclear proliferation, with the goal of enhancing the ability of analysts and policymakers to forecast its future and improve its prevention. It effectively combines quantitative and qualitative approaches, and includes a systematic review of the literature, from the early studies of proliferation dynamics of the 1960s to the latest statistical analyses of the past decade, as well as a range of case studies that goes beyond the 'usual suspects' to include Australia, Ukraine and Yugoslavia."—Bruno Tertrais, Survival

"This volume contains 12 case studies and offers many insights into the decision-making processes in the countries studied. It will be invaluable to those interested in proliferation analysis, and to students and researchers."—T.V. Paul, James McGill Professor of International Relations, McGill University

From the Publisher

"This volume contains 12 case studies and offers many insights into the decision-making processes in the countries studied. It will be invaluable to those interested in proliferation analysis, and to students and researchers."

T.V. Paul

"This impressive—nearly 800 pages—collective study aims at taking a fresh look at the causes of nuclear proliferation, with the goal of enhancing the ability of analysts and policymakers to forecast its future and improve its prevention. It effectively combines quantitative and qualitative approaches, and includes a systematic review of the literature, from the early studies of proliferation dynamics of the 1960s to the latest statistical analyses of the past decade, as well as a range of case studies that goes beyond the 'usual suspects' to include Australia, Ukraine and Yugoslavia."

Bruno Tertrais

"Students, academics, and, yes, practitioners will find much to admire in the analysis contained in both volumes . . . The two volumes add to a rich qualitative literature on proliferation, while applying rigorous quantitative analysis to proliferation cases. The contributing factors for proliferation are widely acknowledged and include domestic drivers, economic and security concerns, as well as regime and leadership types . . . The two-volume set on Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century is helpful in many valuable ways. There are sound analytical reasons for concluding that, despite the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, the sky is not falling, nor is it likely to fall over the next decade."

Nonproliferation Review - Michael Krepon