Hinge Points: An Inside Look at North Korea's Nuclear Program

by Siegfried S. Hecker, Elliot A. Serbin (With)

Overview

North Korea remains a puzzle to Americans. How did this country—one of the most isolated in the world and in the policy cross hairs of every U.S. administration during the past 30 years—progress from zero nuclear weapons in 2001 to a threatening arsenal of perhaps 50 such weapons in 2021?

Hinge Points brings readers literally inside the North Korean nuclear program, joining Siegfried Hecker to see what he saw and hear what he heard in his visits to North Korea from 2004 to 2010. Hecker goes beyond the technical details—described in plain English from his on-the-ground experience at the North's nuclear center at Yongbyon—to put the nuclear program exactly where it belongs, in the context of decades of fateful foreign policy decisions in Pyongyang and Washington.

Describing these decisions as "hinge points," he traces the consequences of opportunities missed by both sides. The result has been that successive U.S. administrations have been unable to prevent the North, with the weakest of hands, from becoming one of only three countries in the world that might target the United States with nuclear weapons. Hecker's unique ability to marry the technical with the diplomatic is well informed by his interactions with North Korean and U.S. officials over many years, while his years of working with Russian, Chinese, Indian, and Pakistani nuclear officials have given him an unmatched breadth of experience from which to view and interpret the thinking and perspective of the North Koreans.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781503634459
Publisher:	Stanford University Press
Publication date:	01/10/2023
Pages:	410
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x (d)

About the Author

Siegfried S. Hecker is senior fellow and professor emeritus at Stanford Universityand director emeritus of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. His expertise ranges from plutonium science to nuclear weapons and international security. Hecker has documented the history of post-Soviet Russian – American nuclear cooperation in the highly acclaimed Doomed to Cooperate. His scientific and diplomatic achievements have been recognized internationally, including the presidential Enrico Fermi Award, the American Nuclear Society's Eisenhower Medal and election to the National Academy of Engineering. Elliot A. Serbin worked with Siegfried Hecker at Stanford Universityfrom 2016 to 2020. Serbin supported the Nuclear Risk Reduction Project and extensively researched the history and status of North Korea's nuclear program. Serbin has most recently worked at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He is currently a student at Harvard Universitywhere he is pursuing a J.D. and an M.A. in Public Policy.

Table of Contents

Preface ix

1 Introduction 1

2 Nuclear Background 14

3 The State of Play Prior to January 2004 32

4 "Would You Like to See Our Product?" 45

5 Disastrous Consequences of Bolton's Hammer 82

6 Back to North Korea: "No LWR Till Pigs Fly" 95

7 Kim Jong II: Buying Time 127

8 "Tell America It Worked. DPRK Is Filled with Pride" 140

9 2007: Back to the Negotiating Table 158

10 2007 and 2008 Visits: Back to Yongbyon to Confirm Disablement 168

11 2008: Almost There, but It All Falls Apart 194

12 2009 Visit: "You Don't Know How Bad It Will Get" 209

13 2009 and 2010: Clenching the Fist, Not Reaching for Obama's Outstretched Hand 217

14 2010 Visit: "Tomorrow, You Will Have a Bigger Surprise" 233

15 November 2010 to April 2012: Deal Blows Up, Along with Rocket 250

16 "Does the U.S. Blow This Up Over One Stupid Rocket Launch?" 260

17 From Strategic Patience to Benign Neglect 267

18 The "Fire and Fury" of 2017 287

19 From the Olympics to Singapore 311

20 The Train Wreck in Hanoi 325

21 Closing Observations: Hinge Points and Missteps 351

Epilogue 363

Acknowledgments 367

Index 371

About the Authors 387

Figures follow page 208

Editorial Reviews

"Hinge Points is a must-read for any serious practitioner of foreign relations. Siegfried Hecker lays out a riveting narrative derived from his "man in the ring" experiences over several decades. His deep insights are highly relevant to the challenges deriving from a nuclear-capable North Korea playing out in real-time."—Vincent K. Brooks, General, U.S. Army (Retired)

"With dramatic visits to North Korea's long-closed nuclear facilities, and a full cast of top nuclear scientists and diplomats, Hinge Points offers a remarkable account of how North Korea became a nuclear power. Only Siegfried Hecker could have written this sobering tale of why and how the US—with worrying consequences—continues to get North Korea wrong."—Mike Chinoy, USC US-China Institute

"Written by a scientist who has actually walked around North Korea's nuclear complex, Hinge Points is a piercing analysis of the decades-long failure to curb Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions. With unparalleled mastery of both technical details and diplomatic complexities, Siegfried Hecker lays bare the history in a way that opens a future path to progress."—John Delury, Yonsei University

"With Hinge Points, Siegfried Hecker offers unique insights into North Korea' dangerous nuclear program. And no-one is better qualified to do so. Hecker has visited the North and talked with their nuclear experts many times—and has held their plutonium in his (gloved) hand."—William J. Perry 19th U.S. Secretary of Defense

"Hinge Points is an excellent book full of fascinating people and science and first-rate analysis from a man who has seen North Korea firsthand and knows better than most the dangers of a nuclear stand-off. The book lays bare Washington's missed opportunities to create a more stable and prosperous Korean Peninsula, as well as the difficult questions facing policymakers in the White House, Pyongyang and beyond."—David Tizzard, NK News

"As the former head of Los Alamos National Laboratory, Hecker had unique opportunities to visit North Korean nuclear facilities between 2004 and 2010 and played a role in the negotiations intended to stop North Korea from becoming a credible nuclear power. Here, he describes the failure of that diplomatic effort."—Lawrence D. Freedman, Foreign Affairs

"Unlike other physical scientists who have turned their hands to policy, Hecker understands the complexities without trying to reduce them to simple solutions. His frustration at the lack of progress with North Korea is palpable and a refreshing contrast to the tired cynicism of experts in Washington who believe that Pyongyang is a hopeless case yet refuse to adopt different approaches. One can only hope Hecker has another chance to visit North Korea to brighten the prospects for diplomacy."—Sharon Squassoni, Arms Control Today

"Hecker dives into the technical detail and, with the mastery of a medieval alchemist, transforms it into the gold of plain English."—Glyn Ford, Asian Affairs

"Hinge Points provides a trenchant critique of the failed attempts of the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations to denuclearize North Korea.... Highly recommended."—M. E. Carranza, CHOICE

"Hecker is correct to suggest that the Korean question is the most urgent unsolved long-term crisis in global politics. Hinge Points serves as a very useful overview of the problem. Anyone concerned with international politics needs to read this study drawing the general public's attention to the potential tinderbox of war that is East Asia."—James Flowers, H-Sci-Med-Tech

From the Publisher

2022-11-22
The former head of Los Alamos National Laboratory, who visited North Korean nuclear sites over seven consecutive years, reflects on the series of missed opportunities by U.S. policymakers to thwart the nation’s nuclear buildup.

How did North Korea go from “zero nuclear weapons in 2001 to an arsenal” of nearly 50 just 20 years later? Hecker’s first invitation to observe the country’s budding nuclear program came in 2004, after the Clinton-era Agreed Framework deal, which halted nuclear proliferation, had broken down under the hawkish George W. Bush administration. This, the author laments, was one of America’s greatest foreign policy errors, because the Agreed Framework allowed North Korea to ply the diplomacy track rather than the nuclear. With neoconservative hard-liners like Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld constantly questioning North Korea’s sincerity, tensions ratcheted up between the countries and the diplomatic door closed. As a scientist, Hecker, now at Stanford, observed how North Korea had indeed shut down the main Yongbyon reactor until renewed enmity prompted a restart and acceleration of the nuclear weapons program, proudly vaunted by North Korean officials. Above all, Pyongyang sought normalization of relations and the lifting of sanctions for their economy. However, when it was discovered that North Korea abetted the creation of a reactor in Syria (subsequently bombed by Israel), U.S. officials balked. Later, Donald Trump’s much-hyped summit in Singapore, ostensibly focused on the “denuclearization” of the entire Korean Peninsula, was not backed by any real substance. Furthermore, despite the subsequent “love letters” between Trump and Kim Jong Un, national security adviser John Bolton effectively stymied any accord before the Hanoi summit in 2019—another lost diplomatic opportunity, writes Hecker. Though the text may be overly technical for general readers, it’s a valuable look at a shadowy regime.

An informed scientist effectively argues for diplomacy in nuclear armament talks with North Korea.

Kirkus Reviews