Iran's Nuclear Program: A Study in Proliferation and Rollback

by Farhad Rezaei

Overview

This book presents the first full and systematic account of Iran’s nuclear program from 1979 to 2015. Throughout this time, foreign policy makers, intelligence experts, and scholars on the subject have repeatedly failed to understand the internal dynamics behind Iran's nuclear project and have underestimated the depth of the regime’s commitment to develop nuclear weapons. The author presents an account of little-understood episodes in the history of the nuclear project, including an analysis of the decision making process of the “nuclear sanctum.” A full account is given of the organizations that ran the project and a listing of the suppliers that made the project possible. Finally, the book offers a detailed analysis of the international sanctions placed on Iran, including the induced anomie and legitimacy crisis which expedited the decision to rollback.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9783319441191
Publisher:	Springer International Publishing
Publication date:	01/06/2017
Edition description:	1st ed. 2017
Pages:	272
Product dimensions:	5.83(w) x 8.27(h) x (d)

About the Author

Farhad Rezaei is Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Middle East Institute (ORMER), Sakarya University, Turkey. He obtained his PhD in International Relations from the Department of International and Strategic Studies at the University of Malaya, Malaysia.

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 PROLIFERATION, SANCTIONS AND ROLLBACK: A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH
1
The Puzzle of Iran’s Proliferation: Optimists vs. Pessimists
2
Rolling Back Iran’s Nuclear Program? Sanction Advocates vs. Sanction Skeptics
6
Iran as a Non-Unitary Actor: The Negotiated Political Order
9
Methodology and Structure
12
CHAPTER 2 THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION AND THE BOMB: QURAN MEETS REALISM

16
The Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic: The High Cost of Exporting the Revolution
17
The Quranic Way Of War: Is There Room For Nuclear Weapons?

28
Bushehr and Beyond: Building a Case for Nuclear Weapons
33
CHAPTER 3 RAFSANJANI’S NUCLEAR TAKEOFF: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE WEAK NON-PROLIFERATION REGIME
46
Hiding in Plain Site: The Legitimate Infrastructure of an Illicit Program 47

Building its Own Scientific Cadre: Iran as a Nuclear Science Beacon to the World?
57
The Pakistani Connection: Making the Dream of a Muslim Bomb a Doable Reality?
61
Shopping in the A. Q. Khan Nuclear Bazaar: the Centrifuge Blueprint Purchase
66
Beyond the “Khan Bazaar”: Making Pakistani Proliferation Official?
72
The North Korean Connection: Shopping For Missiles and More
76
Evading the Nonproliferation Regime: Complexity and Dissimulation 84

CHAPTER 4
KHATAMI’S DIALOGUE AMONG CIVILIZATIONS AND THE NUCLEAR “DISAPPEARANCE ACT”
100
Khatami’s Vision of Foreign Policy: The Meaning of the Dialogue among Civilizations
100
On Khatami’s Watch: Speeding Up the Nuclear Project 112
The MEK‘s Disclosure and its Aftermath: Adjusting Tactics without Changing Strategy
117
Khatami: Out of the Loop or Part of the Deception Project?

132
Slow-Playing the West While Developing the Nuclear Project 139

CHAPTER 5 AHMADINEJAD’S PRINCIPALIST DOCTRINE: SOVEREIGN RIGHTS TO A NUCLEAR ARSENAL
156
The Nuclear Project in Ahmadinejad’s World View: Nuclear Equality for All
168
The NPT Dilemma in Tehran: To Stay or Exit? 172
Security Council Resolutions: Raising the Cost of the Nuclear Project
186
CHAPTER 6 INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS: THE HIGH COST OF PROLIFERATION IN A NEOPATRIMONIAL REGIME
209
Sanctions and More Sanctions: Splitting the Iranian Elites
209
The 2009 Election As A Referendum On Sanctions: Why Did The Supreme Leader Side With Ahmadinejad? 216
Cutting to the Bone: The Smart Sanctions in Action 222
The Weapons Program during Ahmadinejad’s Tenure: Measuring Achievements behind the Rhetoric

230

CHAPTER 7 THE ROUHANI PRESIDENCY: THE ROAD TO ROLLBACK
259
From Smart Sanctions to Super Smart Sanctions: Putting the Squeeze on the Iranian Economy
260
Sanctions and Anomie: A Threshold Condition for Delegitimization?

274

The Election of Hassan Rouhani: A Victory for the Rollback Lobby

278

The Nuclear Program Assessed: The View of the International Atomic Energy Agency

283

Rouhani’s Gamble: Banking on a Rollback and Normalization

287
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: The Parameters of the Rollback 295
The JCPOA’s Prospects in Tehran: Renegotiating the Negotiated Political Order?
299
CONCLUSION 321
APPENDICES 325