Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State?
260Pakistan: Can the United States Secure an Insecure State?
260Paperback
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Overview
The authors exposit likely developments in Pakistan's internal and external security environment over the coming decade; assess Pakistan's national will and capacity to solve its problems, especially those relating to security; describe U.S. interests in Pakistan; and suggest policies for the U.S. government to pursue in order to secure those interests.
Product Details
ISBN-13: | 9780833048073 |
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Publisher: | RAND Corporation |
Publication date: | 06/16/2010 |
Series: | Rand Corporation Monograph |
Pages: | 260 |
Product dimensions: | 6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 0.70(d) |
Table of Contents
Preface iii
Figures ix
Tables xi
Summary xiii
Acknowledgments xxiii
Abbreviations xxv
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Purpose 1
Organization 4
Research Approach 5
Chapter 2 Pakistan's Future: Is Past Prologue? 7
Failed Constitutionalism and Governance 8
Central Governance in Dispute 9
The Center's Relations with the Provinces and Other Areas 11
The Army: Guarantor of an Insecure State? 16
The Army's Preeminent Role in Decisionmaking 19
Regional Security and Risk Taking 21
Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons: Sources of Security and Insecurity 26
Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons 27
The Proliferation Challenges 28
Organization and Security of Pakistan's Nuclear Infrastructure 31
International Significance of Pakistan's Nuclear Challenges 33
Pakistan's Problematic Political Landscape 40
Principal Political Parties 42
Pakistan's Internal Security Challenges 48
Islamism, Militancy, and the State 51
The Post-9/11 Militant Landscape 53
Demographic Trends 58
Population Growth 58
Urbanization 59
The Economy 61
Economic Growth 61
Inflation and Fiscal Balance 63
Employment, Income Growth, and Poverty 64
Economic Outlook 67
Social Development 68
Education 69
Health 71
Concluding Remarks 72
Chapter 3 Pakistan's Ability to Mitigate Sources of Insecurity 75
The Constitution and Civil-Military Relations 76
Radical Reform Needed for Pakistan's Political Parties 77
Reasons for Optimism? 82
Taming the Military? 84
Countering Internal Security Threats 87
The Strategic Use of Militants 88
The Pakistan Government's Ability to Tackle the Militant Threat 94
Pakistan's Foreign Policy 108
Foreign Policy Objectives 109
Foreign Policymaking 112
Pakistan's Alliances and Regional Insecurities 115
Economic Policies 123
Macroeconomic Policies 123
Government Defense Spending and Other Military Revenues 124
Regulatory Policies and Privatization 127
Policies for Social Development 128
Population Policy 129
Health Policy 131
Education Policy 132
Conclusions 136
Chapter 4 How Effective Have U.S. Policies Toward Pakistan Been? 139
Divergent Priorities and Conflicted Aims: U.S. and Pakistani Objectives 139
U.S. Objectives 139
Pakistan's Objectives 144
The Problem of Conflicting Goals 149
Engaging Pakistan: U.S. Policy Instruments and Their Effectiveness 150
Security Assistance Programs 156
Military Reimbursement 158
Arms Sales and Military Training 162
The Security Development Plan 165
Other Assistance for Internal Security 168
Assistance That Is Unrelated to Security 170
Economic and Development Assistance 170
Non-U.S. Economic and Development Assistance to Pakistan 172
U.S. Public Diplomacy and Democracy Promotion Efforts 175
The Downsides of "Conditionality" 176
The Downsides of U.S. Support for Individual Pakistani Leaders 178
Conclusions 179
Chapter 5 U.S. Policy Options for Pakistan 181
Learn the Lessons of the Past 181
A New Strategy for Pakistan 182
Develop Alternative Supply Routes for Operations in Afghanistan 184
Work with Pakistan's Key Supporters to Develop Cooperative Policies 185
Forge a Strategic Dialogue with Pakistan 186
Rebalance U.S. Assistance to Increase Support to Pakistan's Civilian Institutions and People 187
Help Make Politics and Political Institutions More Professional 188
Foster the Rule of Law and Justice 190
Counternarcotics: Supply and Demand Approaches 191
U.S. Economic and Development Assistance to Pakistan 191
Military Assistance 193
Forge a Regional Strategy 196
Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force 197
Need for a Contingency Plan? 201
Bibliography 203