Political Manipulation and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Terrorism, Influence and Persuasion

by Ben Cole

Overview

Concerns about CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radioactive, Nuclear) weapons have featured prominently in both political debates and media reporting about the ongoing threat from al Qaeda since 9/11. This book provides a chronological account of al Qaeda's efforts to acquire a CBRN weapon capability, and the evolution of the al Qaeda leadership's approach to actually using CBRN weapons, set against the context of the politicisation of the threat of CBRN terrorism in US security debates. Ben Cole explores how the inherently political nature of terrorist CBRN threats has helped to shape al Qaeda's approach to CBRN weapons, and shows how the heightened political sensitivities surrounding the threat have enabled some governments to manipulate it in order to generate domestic and international support for controversial policies, particularly the 2003 invasion of Iraq. He assesses the relative success of the al Qaeda leadership's political approach to CBRN weapons, together with the relative success of efforts by the US, UK and Russian governments to exploit the al Qaeda CBRN threat for their wider political purposes.
Shedding new light on al Qaeda's tactics and strategy, this book will be essential reading for scholars of terrorism and extremism studies.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781784538859
Publisher:	Bloomsbury Academic
Publication date:	12/30/2017
Series:	Library of Modern Middle East Studies
Pages:	416
Product dimensions:	5.40(w) x 8.60(h) x 1.40(d)

About the Author

Ben Cole is Honorary Research Fellow in the Department of Psychological Sciences, University of Liverpool. He specialises in the process by which individuals become radicalised into violent extremism; terrorist decision making with regard to CBRN terrorism; and real-time monitoring and analysis of conflicts and terrorist movements using online media. He worked on the development of the PVE tool and guidance, and lectures regularly on CBRN terrorism. He is the author of The Changing Face of Terrorism (I.B.Tauris), co-author of Martyrdom: Radicalisation and Terrorist Violence Among British Muslims and editor of Conflict, Terrorism and the Media in Asia.

Table of Contents

Abbreviations ix

Introduction 1

1 Opportunism, 1994-6 5

Opportunities to Acquire CBRN Weapons 7

Al Qaeda and Sudan's Chemical Weapon Programme 13

Al Qaeda Attempts to Connect with Iran and Iraq 14

Al Qaeda Leaves Sudan 18

2 The US and the Politics of CBRN Terrorism, 1996-8 19

CBRN Terrorism in Security Debates 20

The Politicisation of the Threat 25

Intelligence Assessments of the Threat 31

3 Antecedents: Afghanistan, 1996-8 34

The Development of Al Qaeda's Strategy and Tactics 37

The Attacks on the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania 38

The Decision to Start a CBRN Programme 43

4 Project Al Zabadi and the Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons 47

Chemical Weapons 47

Biological Weapons 52

Nuclear and Radiological Weapons 55

Al Qaeda Implements CBRN Training 59

Breakthrough? - Al Wafa and Ummah Tameer-e-Nau 60

5 Al Qaeda's Strategy Begins to Emerge, 1988-2001 65

The Returnees from Albania 69

US and UK Intelligence Assessments of Al Qaeda's CBRN Capabilities 70

Bin Laden Begins to Articulate a Strategy of Deterrence 75

Exploiting the Politics of CBRN Terrorism 78

6 Opting for Deterrence, 1999-2001 82

Chechnya and the Politics of CBRN Terrorism 86

Stepping Up Attacks on the US 95

7 The End of Project Al Zabadi 99

The War on Terror 101

Investigating Project Al Zabadi 103

Re-Assessing the Threat 107

Renewed Politicisation of the Threat from CBRN Weapons 110

8 Re-Establishing a CBRN Weapon Capability, 2002-3 115

Re-Establishing the CBRN Weapon-Development Programme 117

The Publication of Online Training Materials 119

The Al Qaeda Leadership Refuses to Approve Further CBRN Attacks 121

Warning Signs of Al Qaeda Losing Control of the Threat 125

9 Al Qaeda Announces its Strategy, 2002-3 127

The Theological Legitimacy of Using CBRN Weapons 132

A CBRN Fatwa 135

Confusing the Message 137

Evidence of Developing CBRN Plots in Europe 139

10 Constraining the Threat, 2002-3 143

AQSA Attempts to Buy Nuclear Weapons 146

Europe and the 'Chechen Network' 148

The Capture of Khaled Sheikh Mohammed 155

Intelligence Assessments of the Threat 157

11 The Politics of CBRN Terrorism and the Invasion of Iraq 161

The Iraq Link Confirmed? 163

The Build-Up to the Invasion of Iraq 167

The Debate in the UK 171

The Invasion of Iraq and its Aftermath 175

12 Western Uncertainty About the Threat, 2004-7 178

False Alarms 180

The Threat Moves to Europe 182

Publicising the Threat and the Debate on Enhanced Interrogation 188

13 Losing Control of the Threat, 2004-8 195

The War in Iraq 198

Online Training Materials 206

Sporadic Global Incidents 208

14 Breakdown in Control, 2007-9 211

The War in Afghanistan, 2004-6 219

The Theological Challenge to Al Qaeda Strategic Thought, 2007-8 221

15 Influencing the New President, 2008-10 227

Increasing Jihadi Online Chatter on Nuclear Weapons 230

Emerging Opportunities in Pakistan 234

Assessing the Risks and Increasing Political Concerns 238

President Obama's National Security Strategy and the Drone Programme 240

16 A New Threat Emerges, 2010-15 242

Decentralised Incidents 243

Al Qaeda Attempts to Impose Control over CBRN Plots 245

New Opportunities - the Arab Spring 250

The Emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant 253

Conclusion 259

Al Qaeda's Intentions Regarding the Use of CBRN Weapons 260

The Political Value of CBRN Weapon Threats to Nation States 264

Al Qaeda's Legacy with Respect to CBRN Weapons 265

Notes 267

Bibliography 345

Index 389