Predictable Surprises: The Disasters you Should Have Seen Coming, and How to Prevent Them

by Max H. Bazerman, Michael Watkins

Overview

Most events that catch us by surprise are both predictable and preventable, but we consistently miss the warning signs. This book shows why such predictable surprises place us all at risk and shows how we can understand, anticipate, and prevent them before disaster strikes.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781422122877
Publisher:	Harvard Business Review Press
Publication date:	03/25/2008
Series:	Leadership for the Common Good
Pages:	336
Product dimensions:	5.50(w) x 8.30(h) x (d)

Table of Contents

Preface     vii
Acknowledgments     xv
What is a Predictable Surprise?: A Preview     1
Prototypes of Predictable Surprises     13
September 11: The Costs of Ignoring a Predictable Surprise     15
The Collapse of Enron and the Failure of Auditor Independence     43
Why Don't We Act on What We Know?     69
Cognitive Roots: The Role of Human Biases     71
Organizational Roots: The Role of Institutional Failures     95
Political Roots: The Role of Special-Interest Groups     121
Preventing Predictable Surprises     153
Recognition: Identifying Emerging Threats Earlier     157
Prioritization: Focusing on the Right Problems     179
Mobilization: Building Support for Preventative Action     203
Future Predictable Surprises     225
General Accounting Office Reports Warning of Aviation Security Weaknesses, 1994-2001     259
Ten Elements of an Effective Crisis-Response Plan     263
Notes     267
Further Reading     301
Index     303
About the Authors     319

Editorial Reviews

"[S]ubstantial...leaving the reader no excuse not to deal with all those foreseeable, predictable, avoidable surprises."
—1 December, 2004

Financial Times

According to Harvard Business Professor Max H. Bazerman and strategy consultant Michael D. Watkins, "predictable surprises" are events that catch leaders off guard even though they had all the information necessary to anticipate them, and write that they represent a pervasive failure of leadership that holds grave consequences. In Predictable Surprises, the authors identify six danger signals and describe a prescriptive framework that aims to help leaders respond quickly and effectively to prevent disasters. Copyright © 2005 Soundview Executive Book Summaries

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