Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away

by Annie Duke

Overview

From the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets comes a toolkit for mastering the skill of quitting to achieve greater success

Business leaders, with millions of dollars down the drain, struggle to abandon a new app or product that just isn’t working. Governments, caught in a hopeless conflict, believe that the next tactic will finally be the one that wins the war. And in our own lives, we persist in relationships or careers that no longer serve us. Why? According to Annie Duke, in the face of tough decisions, we’re terrible quitters. And that is significantly holding us back.

In Quit, Duke teaches you how to get good at quitting. Drawing on stories from elite athletes like Mount Everest climbers, founders of leading companies like Stewart Butterfield, the CEO of Slack, and top entertainers like Dave Chappelle, Duke explains why quitting is integral to success, as well as strategies for determining when to hold em, and when to fold em, that will save you time, energy, and money. You’ll learn:

How the paradox of quitting influences decision making: If you quit on time, you will feel you quit early

What forces work against good quitting behavior, such as escalation commitment, desire for certainty, and status quo bias

How to think in expected value in order to make better decisions, as well as other best practices, such as increasing flexibility in goal-setting, establishing “quitting contracts,” anticipating optionality, and conducting premortems and backcasts

Whether you’re facing a make-or-break business decision or life-altering personal choice, mastering the skill of quitting will help you make the best next move.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780593422991
Publisher:	Penguin Publishing Group
Publication date:	10/04/2022
Pages:	336
Sales rank:	24,355
Product dimensions:	5.60(w) x 8.20(h) x 1.30(d)

About the Author

Annie Duke is a bestselling author, corporate speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space. As a former professional poker player, Annie won more than $4 million in tournament poker before retiring from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a professional player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. She is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education.

Table of Contents

Prologue The Gaffed Scale xv

Grit vs. Quit xviii

Wrapped in Euphemism xxi

Science Says xxiii

Section I The Case for Quitting

Chapter 1 The Opposite of a Great Virtue Is Also a Great Virtue 3

The Invisible Men at the Top of the World 6

Quitting Is a Decision-Making Tool 10

The Siren Song of Certainty 14

The Super Bowl Is a Corporate Graveyard 16

"Know When to Hold 'Em, Know When to Fold 'Em But Mostly, Fold 'Em 18

Chapter 2 Quitting On Time Usually Feels Like Quitting Too Early 23

Quit While You Still Have a Choice 29

Thinking in Expected Value 32

Quitting Decisions Are Expected-Value Decisions 35

Time Travelers from the Past 39

Flipping Coins 41

Jumping the Shark 42

The Quitting Bind 44

Chapter 3 Should I Stay, or Should I Go? 48

Paper Gains and Paper Losses 51

Quit While You're Ahead? 55

Take the Money and Run 57

How Smart Is the Smart Money? 59

Getting Feedback on the Things You Don't Do 63

Interlude I Quitting When the World is Watching 67

Section II In the Losses

Chapter 4 Escalating Commitment 73

Knee-Deep in the Big Muddy 79

Waiting until It Hurts 81

Chapter 5 Sunk Cost and the Fear of Waste 85

The Sunk Cost Effect 89

When "Public Works" Is an Oxymoron 92

Katamari 95

How Big Does the Katamari Grow? 98

Mental Accounting 100

The Hardest Cost to Bear 102

The Difference between Knowing and Doing 103

You Can't Jedi Mind Trick Being Fresh to a Decision 105

Chapter 6 Monkeys and Pedestals 108

Getting the Monkey Off Your Back 112

Kill Criteria 115

Funnel Vision 117

States and Dates 122

Better, Not Perfect 125

Interlude II Gold or Nothing 129

Section III Identity and Other Impediments

Chapter 7 You Own What You've Bought and What You've Thought: Endowment and Status Quo Bias 135

An Oenophile among Economists 140

Also, If You've Known It, You Own It 143

The Endowment Effect 144

Pro Sports Teams and Their Escalating Commitment to High Draft Picks 146

The Status Quo Is Hard to Quit 150

Better the Devil You Know 153

The Price of Sticking 154

Chapter 8 The Hardest Thing to Quit Is Who You Are: Identity and Dissonance 158

The Cult of Identity 164

Cognitive Dissonance 168

The Mirror and the Window 170

Out on a Limb 173

Mistaken Identity 175

A Ray of Hope 176

Chapter 9 Find Someone Who Loves You but Doesn't Care about Hurt Feelings 180

(Over) Optimism 185

The Difference between Being Nice and Being Kind 188

Some Coaches Can Pull the Plug 190

Divide and Conquer 192

The Importance of Giving and Getting Permission 194

Interlude III The Ants go Marching … Mostly 199

Section IV Opportunity Cost

Chapter 10 Lessons from Forced Quitting 205

In the Meantime 210

What Ants Can Teach Us about Backup Plans 213

Notes from the London Underground 216

Just One Day 218

Diversifying Your Opportunities 221

The Great Resignation 224

Chapter 11 The Myopia of Goals 228

The Problem with Pass-Fail 230

Fixed Objects in a Changing World 235

Every Goal Needs At Least One Unless 237

Marking Progress along the Way 240

Goal-Induced Myopia 242

Quit Thinking about Waste 244

Acknowledgments 249

Notes 253

Bibliography 281

Index 297

Editorial Reviews

★ 08/22/2022

Duke follows up How to Decide with a fascinating look at the power of walking away from strategies and plans that aren’t working. There’s a pervasive cultural narrative that proposes a false dichotomy of “grit vs. quit,” she argues, but that oversimplified framing serves no one: “While grit can get you to stick to hard things that are worthwhile,” it can also mean staying with something when it’s time to stop. Duke breaks down why people get so hidebound, explaining how the “escalation of commitment” can lead people to double down when they’re losing. Finding the resolve to walk away from a project that overlaps with one’s identity is especially hard, she notes, as people often fear they’ll be judged “as being wrong, irrational, capricious, and prone to mistakes” if they abandon a goal or belief. She offers examples of people who were right to drop the rope when they did, including Olympic skier Lindsey Vonn, who recognized the risk continuing to compete posed to her health, and Stewart Butterfield, who walked away from developing the game Glitch to create Slack. Duke reassures readers that there’s nothing shameful about quitting: “Contrary to popular belief, winners quit a lot. That’s how they win.” This no-nonsense survey packs a punch.(Oct.)

Publishers Weekly

Praise for Quit

“This brilliant and entertaining book documents a major flaw in human actions and decisions: the bias against quitting. I learned a lot from its compelling tales of failures and sound recommendations. You will too.”
—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize winner in economics and #1 New York Times bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow

“Engrossing, important, and grounded in science, Quit is a gem that will allow you to navigate the world more effectively.”
—Katy Milkman, bestselling author of How to Change

“A game-changing book of strategy from a world-class thinker on risk and decision-making.”
—Shane Parrish, host of The Knowledge Project podcast

“Quit is the rare book that is both a page-turner and a legitimately important contribution. If you’ve never thought of quitting as a competitive advantage before, prepare to be enlightened.”
—David Epstein, bestselling author of Range

"There aren't many times you will say, "this book changed my life." This is one of them.”
—Seth Godin, bestselling author of The Practice

“Only a poker player could write this classic book on when—and more importantly how—to fold a bad hand in business, investing, relationships and life.”
—Ryan Holiday, #1 New York Times bestselling author of Stillness Is the Key

“The opposite of a great virtue is also a virtue. And Quit is the perfect dialectical complement to Grit. Weave these two virtues into your character and live a much more fulfilling life.”
—Philip Tetlock, bestselling author of Superforecasting

“Every business school has a course in starting new businesses, but few have a course in shutting them down at the right time. This book fills that gap with brilliant new insights and fantastic stories. Quit what you are doing right now and start reading this book."
—Richard Thaler, Nobel Prize winner in economics and bestselling coauthor of Nudge

"Quitting is not just an art; it's also a science – and there is no one so uniquely suited to teach us both as Annie Duke."
—Brian Christian, coauthor of Algorithms to Live By

“Not since Kenny Rogers has an expert storyteller so clearly demonstrated the importance of knowing when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em, nor presented a clearer strategy to determine when, instead of merely walking away, it’s time to run.”
—David McRaney, author of How Minds Change

“You won't want to quit reading this book, both because it is such a rewarding read and also because its lessons are so important, useful, and memorable.”
—Don A. Moore, author of Perfectly Confident

From the Publisher

2022-08-30
Why quitting is sometimes a good move.

Business consultant and former professional poker player Duke mounts a persuasive argument that quitting is a “decision skill worth developing.” Although grit and perseverance are much praised and useful in many situations, sometimes, “persistence is not always the best decision, certainly not absent context. And context changes.” The author draws on many examples of individuals at crossroads in their lives or careers, confronting the decision to continue or walk away. She faced just such a decision when she was a graduate student in cognitive psychology, aspiring to a career in research and academia. A serious health issue derailed her progress, and she lost her fellowship. Needing to support herself until she could resume her studies, she took up poker and found she loved the game. “A poker table, it turns out, is a very good place to learn about the upside of quitting,” she discovered. “Optimal quitting might be the most important skill separating great players from amateurs.” Quitting, though, can be impeded by negative assumptions: that quitting is synonymous with losing; others will view us badly; the time and effort already spent were wasted; giving up some project will mean giving up one’s identity. Duke sets out some practical guidelines for overcoming those internal forces. “When you enter into a course of action,” for example, she suggests that you “create a set of kill criteria. This is a list of signals you might see in the future that would tell you it’s time to quit.” Continuing to pursue a goal, she reminds readers, means that other opportunities—more fulfilling and perhaps more exciting—will be neglected. “You simply don’t see them because you’re not looking for them,” writes Duke. When working toward any goal, “don’t just measure whether you hit the goal, ask what you have achieved and learned along the way.”

A fresh perspective on the pursuit and meaning of success.

Kirkus Reviews