Reliability Engineering

by Elsayed A. Elsayed

Overview

Get a firm handle on the engineering reliability process with this insightful and complete resource

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The newly and thoroughly revised 3rd Edition of Reliability Engineering delivers a comprehensive and insightful analysis of this crucial field. Accomplished author, professor, and engineer, Elsayed. A. Elsayed includes new examples and end-of-chapter problems to illustrate concepts, new chapters on resilience and the physics of failure, revised chapters on reliability and hazard functions, and more case studies illustrating the approaches and methodologies described within.

The book combines analyses of system reliability estimation for time independent and time dependent models with the construction of the likelihood function and its use in estimating the parameters of failure time distribution. It concludes by addressing the physics of failures, mechanical reliability, and system resilience, along with an explanation of how to ensure reliability objectives by providing preventive and scheduled maintenance and warranty policies.

This new edition of Reliability Engineering covers a wide range of topics, including:

• Reliability and hazard functions, like the Weibull Model, the Exponential Model, the Gamma Model, and the Log-Logistic Model, among others
• System reliability evaluations, including parallel-series, series-parallel, and mixed parallel systems
• The concepts of time- and failure-dependent reliability within both repairable and non-repairable systems
• Parametric reliability models, including types of censoring, and the Exponential, Weibull, Lognormal, Gamma, Extreme Value, Half-Logistic, and Rayleigh Distributions

Perfect for first-year graduate students in industrial and systems engineering, Reliability Engineering, 3rd Edition also belongs on the bookshelves of practicing professionals in research laboratories and defense industries. The book offers a practical and approachable treatment of a complex area, combining the most crucial foundational knowledge with necessary and advanced topics.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781119665922
Publisher:	Wiley
Publication date:	01/07/2021
Series:	Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management
Edition description:	3rd ed.
Pages:	928
Product dimensions:	7.30(w) x 10.10(h) x 1.70(d)

About the Author

ELSAYED. A. ELSAYED, PHD is a Distinguished Professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at Rutgers University. He is Director of the NSF/Industry/University Cooperative Research Center for Quality and Reliability Engineering, Rutgers-Arizona State University. His research interests include the areas of quality and reliability engineering, production planning, and control and manufacturing processes and engineering.

Read an Excerpt

PREFACE: Reliability is one of the most important quality characteristics of components, products, and large and complex systems. The role of reliability is observed daily by all of us - when we turn the ignition key of a vehicle, attempt to place a phone call, or try to use a copier, computer, or fax machine. In all these instances, the user expects that the machine will provide the function it is designed for when the function is requested. As you probably have experienced, machines do not always function or deliver the desired quality of service when needed.

Engineers spend a significant amount of time and resources during the design and production phases of the product life cycle to ensure that the product or system will provide the desired service level. In doing so, engineers start with a conceptual design, select its components, test its functionality, and estimate its reliability. Then they usually make modifications and design changes and repeat these steps until the product (or service) satisfies its requirements.

Designing the product may require redundancy of components (or subsystems) or introduction of newly developed components or changes in the design configuration. These will have a major impact on the product reliability.

This book is an engineering reliability book. It is organized according to the sequence followed when engineers design a product or service. The book consists of three parts. Part I focuses on system reliability estimation for time-independent and time-dependent models. Chapter 1 focuses on the basic definitions of reliability, its measures, and methods for its calculation. Extensive coverage of different hazard functions is provided.Chapter 2 describes, in greater detail, methods for estimating reliabilities of a variety of engineering systems configurations starting with series systems, parallel systems, series- parallel, parallel-series, consecutive k-out-of-n:F, and complex network systems. It also addresses systems with multistate devices and concludes by estimating reliabilities of redundant systems and the optimal allocation of components in a redundant system. The next step in product design is to study the effect of time on the system reliability. Hence, Chapter 3 discusses, in detail, time- and failure-dependent reliability and the calculation of mean time to failure (MTTF) of a variety of system configurations. The chapter also introduces availability as a measure of system reliability.

Once the design is "firm," the engineer assembles the components and configures them to achieve the desired reliability objectives. This may require conducting reliability tests on components or using field data from similar components. Part II of this book, starting with Chapter 4, presents the concept of constructing the likelihood function and its use in estimating the parameters of failure-time distributions. Chapter 5 provides a comprehensive coverage of parametric and nonparametric reliability models for failure data. The extensive examples and methodologies presented in this chapter will aid the engineer in appropriately modeling the test data. Confidence intervals for the parameters of the models are also discussed. More important, the book devotes a full chapter, Chapter 6, to accelerated life testing. The main objective of this chapter is to provide varieties of statistical-based models, physics-statistics-based models, and physics-experimental-based models to relate the failure time and data at accelerated conditions to the normal operating conditions at which the product is expected to operate. The computer software Reliability Analysis Software(tm) that accompanies this book provides useful tools for reliability estimation, failure-time distributions, and a wide range of accelerated life models as described in Chapters 5 and 6.

Finally, once a product is produced and sold, the manufacturer must ensure its reliability objectives by providing preventive and scheduled maintenance and warranty policies. Part III of the book focuses on these topics. Beginning with Chapter 7, different methods (exact and approximate) for estimating the expected number of system failures during a specified time interval are presented. These estimates are used in Chapter 8 to determine different warranty policies for the product, including the length of warranty and its reserve fund. Finally, Chapter 9 discusses optimal preventive maintenance schedules, optimum inspection policies, and methods for estimating the inventory levels of spares that are required to ensure predetermined reliability values.

Chapter 10 concludes the book. Its case studies use the approaches and methodologies discussed throughout the book to demonstrate how to solve real-life cases. The role of reliability during the design phase of a product or a system is particularly emphasized.

Two features contribute to the usefulness of this book: every theoretical development discussed in this book is followed by an engineering example that illustrates its application, and several problems are included at the end of each chapter. These features increase the usefulness of the book as both a comprehensive reference for practitioners and professionals in the quality and reliability engineering area and also as a text for a one- or two-semester course on reliability engineering for senior undergraduates or graduate students in industrial and systems, mechanical, and electrical engineering programs. In addition, it can be adapted for use in a life data analysis course offered in many graduate programs in statistics.

The book presumes a background in statistics and probability theory and differential calculus.

0201634813P04062001

Table of Contents

Preface xi

Prelude xv

Chapter 1 Reliability and Hazard Functions 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Reliability Definition and Estimation 5

1.3 Hazard Functions 16

1.4 Multivariate Hazard Rate 57

1.5 Competing Risk Model and Mixture of Failure Rates 60

1.6 Discrete Probability Distributions 68

1.7 Mean Time to Failure 71

1.8 Mean Residual Life 74

1.9 Time of First Failure 76

Problems 79

References 91

Chapter 2 System Reliability Evaluation 95

2.1 Introduction 95

2.2 Reliability Block Diagrams 96

2.3 Series Systems 99

2.4 Parallel Systems 101

2.5 Parallel–Series, Series–Parallel, and Mixed-Parallel Systems 103

2.6 Consecutive-k-out-of-n:F System 113

2.7 Reliability of k-out-of-n Systems 121

2.8 Reliability of k-out-of-n Balanced Systems 123

2.9 Complex Reliability Systems 125

2.10 Special Networks 143

2.11 Multistate Models 144

2.12 Redundancy 150

2.13 Importance Measures of Components 154

2.14 Weighted Importance Measures of Components 165

Problems 167

References 182

Chapter 3 Time- and Failure-Dependent Reliability 185

3.1 Introduction 185

3.2 Nonrepairable Systems 185

3.3 Mean Time to Failure 194

3.4 Repairable Systems 204

3.5 Availability 215

3.6 Dependent Failures 223

3.7 Redundancy and Standby 228

Problems 238

References 247

Chapter 4 Estimation Methods of the Parameters 251

4.1 Introduction 251

4.2 Method of Moments 252

4.3 The Likelihood Function 260

4.4 Method of Least Squares 278

4.5 Bayesian Approach 284

4.6 Bootstrap Method 288

4.7 Generation of Failure Time Data 290

Problems 292

References 298

Chapter 5 Parametric Reliability Models 301

5.1 Introduction 301

5.2 Approach 1: Historical Data 302

5.3 Approach 2: Operational Life Testing 303

5.4 Approach 3: Burn-in Testing 303

5.5 Approach 4: Accelerated Life Testing 304

5.6 Types of Censoring 305

5.7 The Exponential Distribution 308

5.8 The Rayleigh Distribution 322

5.9 The Weibull Distribution 331

5.10 The Lognormal Distribution 343

5.11 The Gamma Distribution 350

5.12 The Extreme Value Distribution 357

5.13 The Half-Logistic Distribution 360

5.14 The Frechet Distribution 367

5.15 The Birnbaum–Saunders Distribution 369

5.16 Linear Models 372

5.17 Multicensored Data 374

Problems 378

References 389

Chapter 6 Accelerated Life Testing 393

6.1 Introduction 393

6.2 Types of Reliability Testing 394

6.3 Accelerated Life Testing 403

6.4 ALT Models 406

6.5 Statistics-Based Models: Nonparametric 420

6.6 Physics-Statistics-Based Models 437

6.7 Physics-Experimental-Based Models 446

6.8 Degradation Models 449

6.9 Statistical Degradation Models 453

6.10 Accelerated Life Testing Plans 459

Problems 463

References 476

Chapter 7 Physics of Failures 481

7.1 Introduction 481

7.2 Fault Tree Analysis 481

7.3 Failure Modes and Effects Analysis 488

7.4 Stress–Strength Relationship 490

7.5 PoF: Failure Time Models 492

7.6 PoF: Degradation Models 512

Problems 519

References 524

Chapter 8 System Resilience 527

8.1 Introduction 527

8.2 Resilience Overview 528

8.3 Multi-Hazard 528

8.4 Resilience Modeling 532

8.5 Resilience Definitions and Attributes 535

8.6 Resilience Quantification 536

8.7 Importance Measures 542

8.8 Cascading Failures 544

8.9 Cyber Networks 546

Problems 557

References 559

Chapter 9 Renewal Processes and Expected Number of Failures 563

9.1 Introduction 563

9.2 Parametric Renewal Function Estimation 564

9.3 Nonparametric Renewal Function Estimation 578

9.4 Alternating Renewal Process 588

9.5 Approximations of M(t) 591

9.6 Other Types of Renewal Processes 594

9.7 The Variance of the Number of Renewals 595

9.8 Confidence Intervals for the Renewal Function 601

9.9 Remaining Life at Time t 604

9.10 Poisson Processes 606

9.11 Laplace Transform and Random Variables 609

Problems 611

References 619

Chapter 10 Maintenance and Inspection 621

10.1 Introduction 621

10.2 Preventive Maintenance and Replacement Models: Cost Minimization 622

10.3 Preventive Maintenance and Replacement Models: Downtime Minimization 631

10.4 Minimal Repair Models 634

10.5 Optimum Replacement Intervals for Systems Subject to Shocks 639

10.6 Preventive Maintenance and Number of Spares 642

10.7 Group Maintenance 649

10.8 Periodic Inspection 653

10.9 Condition-Based Maintenance 663

10.10 On-Line Surveillance and Monitoring 665

Problems 669

References 676

Chapter 11 Warranty Models 679

11.1 Introduction 679

11.2 Warranty Models for Nonrepairable Products 681

11.3 Warranty Models for Repairable Products 701

11.4 Two-Dimensional Warranty 716

11.5 Warranty Claims 718

Problems 725

References 731

Chapter 12 Case Studies 733

12.1 Case 1: A Crane Spreader Subsystem 733

12.2 Case 2: Design of a Production Line 739

12.3 Case 3: An Explosive Detection System 746

12.4 Case 4: Reliability of Furnace Tubes 752

12.5 Case 5: Reliability of Smart Cards 757

12.6 Case 6: Life Distribution of Survivors of Qualification and Certification 760

12.7 Case 7: Reliability Modeling of Telecommunication Networks for the Air Traffic Control System 767

12.8 Case 8: System Design Using Reliability Objectives 776

12.9 Case 9: Reliability Modeling of Hydraulic Fracture Pumps 786

12.10 Case 10: Availability of Medical Information Technology System 791

12.11 Case 11: Producer and Consumer Risk in System of Systems 797

References 804

Appendices

Appendix A Gamma Table 805

Appendix B Computer Program To Calculate the Reliability of a Consecutive-k-Out-of-n:F System 811

Appendix C Optimum Arrangement of Components In Consecutive-2-Out-of-N:F Systems 813

Appendix D Computer Program For Solving the Time-Dependent Equations 821

Appendix E The Newton–Raphson Method 823

Appendix F Coefficients of b_i’s For i = 1, …, n 829

Appendix G Variance of θ^∗₂’s In Terms of θ²₂/n and K₃/K^∗₂ 843

Appendix H Computer Listing of the Newton–Raphson Method 849

Appendix I Coefficients (a_i and b_i) of the Best Estimates of the Mean (μ) and Standard Deviation (σ) In Censored Samples Up To n = 20 From a Normal Population 851

Appendix J Baker’s Algorithm 865

Appendix K Standard Normal Distribution 869

Appendix L Critical Values of χ² 875

Appendix M Solutions of Selected Problems 879

Author Index 887

Subject Index 895

Preface

PREFACE: Reliability is one of the most important quality characteristics of components, products, and large and complex systems. The role of reliability is observed daily by all of us - when we turn the ignition key of a vehicle, attempt to place a phone call, or try to use a copier, computer, or fax machine. In all these instances, the user expects that the machine will provide the function it is designed for when the function is requested. As you probably have experienced, machines do not always function or deliver the desired quality of service when needed.

Engineers spend a significant amount of time and resources during the design and production phases of the product life cycle to ensure that the product or system will provide the desired service level. In doing so, engineers start with a conceptual design, select its components, test its functionality, and estimate its reliability. Then they usually make modifications and design changes and repeat these steps until the product (or service) satisfies its requirements.

Designing the product may require redundancy of components (or subsystems) or introduction of newly developed components or changes in the design configuration. These will have a major impact on the product reliability.

This book is an engineering reliability book. It is organized according to the sequence followed when engineers design a product or service. The book consists of three parts. Part I focuses on system reliability estimation for time-independent and time-dependent models. Chapter 1 focuses on the basic definitions of reliability, its measures, and methods for its calculation. Extensive coverage of different hazard functions isprovided.Chapter 2 describes, in greater detail, methods for estimating reliabilities of a variety of engineering systems configurations starting with series systems, parallel systems, series- parallel, parallel-series, consecutive k-out-of-n:F, and complex network systems. It also addresses systems with multistate devices and concludes by estimating reliabilities of redundant systems and the optimal allocation of components in a redundant system. The next step in product design is to study the effect of time on the system reliability. Hence, Chapter 3 discusses, in detail, time- and failure-dependent reliability and the calculation of mean time to failure (MTTF) of a variety of system configurations. The chapter also introduces availability as a measure of system reliability.

Once the design is "firm," the engineer assembles the components and configures them to achieve the desired reliability objectives. This may require conducting reliability tests on components or using field data from similar components. Part II of this book, starting with Chapter 4, presents the concept of constructing the likelihood function and its use in estimating the parameters of failure-time distributions. Chapter 5 provides a comprehensive coverage of parametric and nonparametric reliability models for failure data. The extensive examples and methodologies presented in this chapter will aid the engineer in appropriately modeling the test data. Confidence intervals for the parameters of the models are also discussed. More important, the book devotes a full chapter, Chapter 6, to accelerated life testing. The main objective of this chapter is to provide varieties of statistical-based models, physics-statistics-based models, and physics-experimental-based models to relate the failure time and data at accelerated conditions to the normal operating conditions at which the product is expected to operate. The computer software Reliability Analysis Software(tm) that accompanies this book provides useful tools for reliability estimation, failure-time distributions, and a wide range of accelerated life models as described in Chapters 5 and 6.

Finally, once a product is produced and sold, the manufacturer must ensure its reliability objectives by providing preventive and scheduled maintenance and warranty policies. Part III of the book focuses on these topics. Beginning with Chapter 7, different methods (exact and approximate) for estimating the expected number of system failures during a specified time interval are presented. These estimates are used in Chapter 8 to determine different warranty policies for the product, including the length of warranty and its reserve fund. Finally, Chapter 9 discusses optimal preventive maintenance schedules, optimum inspection policies, and methods for estimating the inventory levels of spares that are required to ensure predetermined reliability values.

Chapter 10 concludes the book. Its case studies use the approaches and methodologies discussed throughout the book to demonstrate how to solve real-life cases. The role of reliability during the design phase of a product or a system is particularly emphasized.

Two features contribute to the usefulness of this book: every theoretical development discussed in this book is followed by an engineering example that illustrates its application, and several problems are included at the end of each chapter. These features increase the usefulness of the book as both a comprehensive reference for practitioners and professionals in the quality and reliability engineering area and also as a text for a one- or two-semester course on reliability engineering for senior undergraduates or graduate students in industrial and systems, mechanical, and electrical engineering programs. In addition, it can be adapted for use in a life data analysis course offered in many graduate programs in statistics.

The book presumes a background in statistics and probability theory and differential calculus.

0201634813P04062001

Editorial Reviews

A comprehensive, current reference on building high levels of reliability into components and products. The coverage ranges from the basic calculations for reliability estimation, to constructing and using the likelihood function in estimating the parameters of a failure time distribution, to ensuring reliability objectives through preventive maintenance. The volume emphasizes the role of reliability in the design phase of production, and covers parametric and nonparametric reliability models as well as accelerated life testing. The included software enables engineers to apply these models. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

Booknews

The well written book may be used as a reference work for practitioners and as a textbook for courses in reliability engineering, where knowledge in probability calculus and statistics is presumed.”  (Zentralblatt MATH, 1 December 2012) 

“I recommend this book for graduate courses, as it is clear and complete, and treats a vital 21st century problem.”  (Computing Reviews, 29 November 2012)

 

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