Slowdown in the People's Republic of China: Structural Factors and Implications for Asia

Slowdown in the People's Republic of China: Structural Factors and Implications for Asia

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Overview

Slowdown in the People's Republic of China: Structural Factors and Implications for Asia by Justin Yifu Lin

The economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has surged almost 10% annually since economic reforms began in 1978, ensuring the PRC’s position as an engine of global growth. But by 2016 growth slowed to less than 7%. Is it a structural or cyclical slowdown? If structural, the implications for growth, trade, and investment in other Asian economies will be significant.

This book (i) explains the long-term slowdown in advanced Asian economies and what it means for the PRC; (ii) assesses the structural factors shaping the PRC economy and how they will influence its growth over the next decade; (iii) shows how growth, trade, investment, and employment in emerging Asian economies could be impacted; and (iv) evaluates policies that could offset some of the negative factors.

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9784899740773
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Publication date: 03/27/2018
Pages: 416
Product dimensions: 6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x (d)

About the Author

Justin Yifu Lin is a professor at Peking University.

Peter J. Morgan is senior consultant for research at the Asian Development Bank Institute.

Guanghua Wan is director of research at the Asian Development Bank Institute.

Table of Contents

Figures and Tables v

List of Contributors xii

Abbreviations xiv

Preface xv

1 Introduction Justin Yifu Lin Guanghua Wan Peter J. Morgan 1

2 Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied Especially to the People's Republic of China Robert J. Barro 11

3 Will the People's Republic of China Be Able to Avoid the Japan Syndrome? Yang Yao 30

4 The People's Republic of China's Slowdown: Lessons from Japan's Experience and the Expected Impact on Japan's Economy Kyoji Fukao Tangjun Yuan 61

5 The Republic of Korea's Economic Growth and Catch-Up: Implications for the People's Republic of China Jong-Wha Lee 96

6 On the Sustainability of the People's Republic of China's Growth Model-A Productivity Perspective Harry X.Wu 143

7 Is the People's Republic of China's Current Slowdown a Cyclical Downturn or A Long-term Trend? A Productivity-Based Analysis Chong-En Bai Qiong Zhang 181

8 Factors Affecting the Outlook for Medium- to Long-term Growth in the People's Republic of China Justin Yifu Lin Guanghua Wan Peter J. Morgan 220

9 Impact of the People's Republic of China's Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis Fan Zhai Peter Morgan 250

10 Spatial Estimation of the Nexus between the People's Republic of China's Foreign Direct Investment and ASEAN's Growth Nathapornpan Piyaareekul Uttama 281

11 Investigating How a Slowdown in the People's Republic of China Affects Its Trading Partners and How Asia Can Mitigate the Impact Willem Thorbecke 303

12 Estimating the Impact of Slower People's Republic of China Growth on the Asia and the Pacific Region: A Global Vector Autoregression Model Approach Tomoo Inoue Demet Kaya Hitoshi Ohshige 335

Index 374

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