Tail Risk Hedging: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets
"TAIL RISKS" originate from the failure of mean reversion and the idealized bell curve of asset returns, which assumes that highly probable outcomes occur near the center of the curve and that unlikely occurrences, good and bad, happen rarely, if at all, at either "tail" of the curve. Ever since the global financial crisis, protecting investments against these severe tail events has become a priority for investors and money managers, but it issomething Vineer Bhansali and his team at PIMCO have been doing for over a decade. In one of the first comprehensive and rigorous books ever written on tail risk hedging, he lays out a systematic approach to protecting portfolios from, and potentially benefiting from, rare yet severe market outcomes.

Tail Risk Hedging is built on the author'spractical experience applying macroeconomic forecasting and quantitative modeling techniques across asset markets. Using empirical data and charts, he explains the consequences of diversification failure in tail events andhow to manage portfolios when this happens. He provides an easy-to-use, yet rigorous framework for protecting investment portfolios against tail risk and using tail hedging to play offense. Tail Risk Hedging exploreshow to:

  • Generate profits from volatility and illiquidity during tail-risk events in equity and credit markets
  • Buy attractively priced tail hedges that add value to a portfolio and quantify basis risk
  • Interpret the psychology of investors in option pricing and portfolio construction
  • Customize explicit hedges for retirement investments
  • Hedge risk factors such as duration risk and inflation risk

Managing tail risk is today's most significant development in risk management, and this thorough guide helps you access every aspect of it. With the time-tested and mathematically rigorous strategies described here, including pieces of computer code, you get access to insights to help mitigate portfolio losses in significant downturns, create explosive liquidity while unhedged participants are forced to sell, and create more aggressive yet tail-risk-focused portfolios. The book also gives you a unique, higher level view of how tail risk is related to investing in alternatives, and of derivatives such as zerocost collars and variance swaps. Volatilityand tail risks are here to stay, and so should your clients' wealth when you use Tail Risk Hedging for managing portfolios.

PRAISE FOR TAIL RISK HEDGING:

"Managing, mitigating, and even exploiting the risk of bad times are the most important concerns in investments. Bhansali puts tail risk hedging and tail risk management under a microscope—pricing, implementation, and showing how we can fine-tune our risk exposures, which are all crucial ways in how we can better weather our bad times." — ANDREW ANG, Ann F. Kaplan Professor of Business at Columbia University

"This book is critical and accessible reading for fiduciaries, financial consultants and investors interested in both theoretical foundations and practical considerations for how to frame hedging downside risk in portfolios. It is a tremendous resource for anyoneinvolved in asset allocation today." — CHRISTOPHER C. GECZY, Ph.D., Academic Director, Wharton Wealth Management Initiative and Adj. Associate Professor of Finance, The Wharton School

"Bhansali's book demonstrates how tail risk hedging can work, be concretely implemented, and lead to higher returns so that it is possible to have your cake and eat it too! A must read for the savvy investor." — DIDIER SORNETTE, Professor on the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks, ETH Zurich

1117029721
Tail Risk Hedging: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets
"TAIL RISKS" originate from the failure of mean reversion and the idealized bell curve of asset returns, which assumes that highly probable outcomes occur near the center of the curve and that unlikely occurrences, good and bad, happen rarely, if at all, at either "tail" of the curve. Ever since the global financial crisis, protecting investments against these severe tail events has become a priority for investors and money managers, but it issomething Vineer Bhansali and his team at PIMCO have been doing for over a decade. In one of the first comprehensive and rigorous books ever written on tail risk hedging, he lays out a systematic approach to protecting portfolios from, and potentially benefiting from, rare yet severe market outcomes.

Tail Risk Hedging is built on the author'spractical experience applying macroeconomic forecasting and quantitative modeling techniques across asset markets. Using empirical data and charts, he explains the consequences of diversification failure in tail events andhow to manage portfolios when this happens. He provides an easy-to-use, yet rigorous framework for protecting investment portfolios against tail risk and using tail hedging to play offense. Tail Risk Hedging exploreshow to:

  • Generate profits from volatility and illiquidity during tail-risk events in equity and credit markets
  • Buy attractively priced tail hedges that add value to a portfolio and quantify basis risk
  • Interpret the psychology of investors in option pricing and portfolio construction
  • Customize explicit hedges for retirement investments
  • Hedge risk factors such as duration risk and inflation risk

Managing tail risk is today's most significant development in risk management, and this thorough guide helps you access every aspect of it. With the time-tested and mathematically rigorous strategies described here, including pieces of computer code, you get access to insights to help mitigate portfolio losses in significant downturns, create explosive liquidity while unhedged participants are forced to sell, and create more aggressive yet tail-risk-focused portfolios. The book also gives you a unique, higher level view of how tail risk is related to investing in alternatives, and of derivatives such as zerocost collars and variance swaps. Volatilityand tail risks are here to stay, and so should your clients' wealth when you use Tail Risk Hedging for managing portfolios.

PRAISE FOR TAIL RISK HEDGING:

"Managing, mitigating, and even exploiting the risk of bad times are the most important concerns in investments. Bhansali puts tail risk hedging and tail risk management under a microscope—pricing, implementation, and showing how we can fine-tune our risk exposures, which are all crucial ways in how we can better weather our bad times." — ANDREW ANG, Ann F. Kaplan Professor of Business at Columbia University

"This book is critical and accessible reading for fiduciaries, financial consultants and investors interested in both theoretical foundations and practical considerations for how to frame hedging downside risk in portfolios. It is a tremendous resource for anyoneinvolved in asset allocation today." — CHRISTOPHER C. GECZY, Ph.D., Academic Director, Wharton Wealth Management Initiative and Adj. Associate Professor of Finance, The Wharton School

"Bhansali's book demonstrates how tail risk hedging can work, be concretely implemented, and lead to higher returns so that it is possible to have your cake and eat it too! A must read for the savvy investor." — DIDIER SORNETTE, Professor on the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks, ETH Zurich

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Tail Risk Hedging: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets

Tail Risk Hedging: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets

by Vineer Bhansali
Tail Risk Hedging: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets

Tail Risk Hedging: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets

by Vineer Bhansali

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Overview

"TAIL RISKS" originate from the failure of mean reversion and the idealized bell curve of asset returns, which assumes that highly probable outcomes occur near the center of the curve and that unlikely occurrences, good and bad, happen rarely, if at all, at either "tail" of the curve. Ever since the global financial crisis, protecting investments against these severe tail events has become a priority for investors and money managers, but it issomething Vineer Bhansali and his team at PIMCO have been doing for over a decade. In one of the first comprehensive and rigorous books ever written on tail risk hedging, he lays out a systematic approach to protecting portfolios from, and potentially benefiting from, rare yet severe market outcomes.

Tail Risk Hedging is built on the author'spractical experience applying macroeconomic forecasting and quantitative modeling techniques across asset markets. Using empirical data and charts, he explains the consequences of diversification failure in tail events andhow to manage portfolios when this happens. He provides an easy-to-use, yet rigorous framework for protecting investment portfolios against tail risk and using tail hedging to play offense. Tail Risk Hedging exploreshow to:

  • Generate profits from volatility and illiquidity during tail-risk events in equity and credit markets
  • Buy attractively priced tail hedges that add value to a portfolio and quantify basis risk
  • Interpret the psychology of investors in option pricing and portfolio construction
  • Customize explicit hedges for retirement investments
  • Hedge risk factors such as duration risk and inflation risk

Managing tail risk is today's most significant development in risk management, and this thorough guide helps you access every aspect of it. With the time-tested and mathematically rigorous strategies described here, including pieces of computer code, you get access to insights to help mitigate portfolio losses in significant downturns, create explosive liquidity while unhedged participants are forced to sell, and create more aggressive yet tail-risk-focused portfolios. The book also gives you a unique, higher level view of how tail risk is related to investing in alternatives, and of derivatives such as zerocost collars and variance swaps. Volatilityand tail risks are here to stay, and so should your clients' wealth when you use Tail Risk Hedging for managing portfolios.

PRAISE FOR TAIL RISK HEDGING:

"Managing, mitigating, and even exploiting the risk of bad times are the most important concerns in investments. Bhansali puts tail risk hedging and tail risk management under a microscope—pricing, implementation, and showing how we can fine-tune our risk exposures, which are all crucial ways in how we can better weather our bad times." — ANDREW ANG, Ann F. Kaplan Professor of Business at Columbia University

"This book is critical and accessible reading for fiduciaries, financial consultants and investors interested in both theoretical foundations and practical considerations for how to frame hedging downside risk in portfolios. It is a tremendous resource for anyoneinvolved in asset allocation today." — CHRISTOPHER C. GECZY, Ph.D., Academic Director, Wharton Wealth Management Initiative and Adj. Associate Professor of Finance, The Wharton School

"Bhansali's book demonstrates how tail risk hedging can work, be concretely implemented, and lead to higher returns so that it is possible to have your cake and eat it too! A must read for the savvy investor." — DIDIER SORNETTE, Professor on the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks, ETH Zurich


Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780071791755
Publisher: McGraw Hill LLC
Publication date: 01/17/2014
Edition description: New Edition
Pages: 272
Product dimensions: 11.20(w) x 7.60(h) x 1.30(d)

About the Author

VINEER BHANSALI, PH.D., is a managing director and portfolio manager in the Newport Beach office of PIMCO, where he oversees the company's quantitativeinvestment portfolios.

Table of Contents

Foreword Mohamed El-Erian xi

Introduction xv

Acknowledgments xix

Chapter 1 Introduction to Tail Risk and Tail Risk Management 1

Lessons Learned 1

Distressed Liquidation and Failure of Diversification 18

Chapter 2 Basics: Tail Risk Hedging for Defense 25

Formal Derivation of Portfolio Hedges Using Factor Hedges 30

Rolling Tail Hedges 32

Benchmarking Tail Risk Management 37

Cash Versus Explicit Tail Hedging 43

Chapter 3 Offensive Tail Risk Hedging 51

A Model to Compute the Value of Tail Hedging 56

Model Calibration 57

Chapter 4 Active Tail Risk Management 71

Creating a Long History 78

Active Monetization Rules 84

Chapter 5 Indirect Hedging and Basis Risk 93

Quantifying Basis Risk 95

Hedge Matching at the Attachment Point 98

"Soft" Indirects: Comparing Puts versus Put Spreads 104

Basis Risk from Correlated Asset Classes 107

Chapter 6 Other Tail Risk Management Strategies 129

Tail Risk Hedging versus Asset Allocation in a Multimodal World 129

The Hedging Value in Trends and Momentum 134

A Look at the Risks and Rewards of Costless Collars 138

Variance Swaps and Direct Volatility-Based Hedging 141

Dynamic Hedging 146

Chapter 7 A Behavioral Perspective on Tail Risk Hedging 153

Narrow Framing and Tail Risk Hedging 154

Pricing of Put Options on a Standalone Basis 161

Multiple Equilibria and Expected Returns on Tail Hedges 165

Precommitment and Procyclicality 169

Chapter 8 Tail Risk Hedging for Retirement Investments 179

Chapter 9 Inflation and Duration Tail Risk Hedging 193

Hedging at the Money Inflation versus Inflation Tails 195

Tail Hedging Realized Inflation versus Inflation Expectations 198

Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Spikes 202

Framework for Inflation Tail Hedging 210

Benchmarking Inflation Tail Hedges 211

Pricing of Inflation Options 212

Options on CPI 212

Options on the Breakeven Inflation Rate 215

Indirect Inflation Tail Risk Hedging and Basis Risk 217

Pricing of Tail Interest-Rate Swaptions 219

Indirect Hedges 221

Example of Gold Options as Proxy Tail Hedge 222

Notes 225

Bibliography 231

Index 235

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