The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck

by David Spiegelhalter Narrated by David Spiegelhalter

Overview

How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as "highly likely"-how likely is that, really? Whether we're trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential-yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. In The Art of Uncertainty, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables.



In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future.



Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know.

Editorial Reviews

From the Publisher

"[The Art of Uncertainty] tackles the hazy science of ambiguity and our flailing efforts to come to terms with it. … Perhaps the most important takeaway … is that even in a world of uncertainty, it’s essential for us to retain our sense of personal agency and not surrender to nihilism."— David A. Shaywitz, Wall Street Journal

"Valuable and rare … [The Art of Uncertainty] will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathematicians, for its topic is universal: how to analyse chance, ignorance and risk. … A welcome corrective for those who think of maths as a black-and-white subject."— Economist

"This is, without doubt, the most beautifully crafted book of its kind . . . rich with stories from fifty years of hard-earned wisdom, each packed with insight and bursting with wit and warmth. . . . This is a book that challenges our assumptions and offers new perspectives on how to embrace [uncertainty]."— Hannah Fry, author of Hello World

"David Spiegelhalter is a national treasure, and this might be his wisest, most humane, and most personal book. I urge you to read it."— Tim Harford, Financial Times columnist and author of The Data Detective

"A stimulating survey of the myriad ways humans have attempted to quantify the unknown. … This is a sure bet."— Publishers Weekly

"A satisfying look at the nature of uncertainty."— Kirkus Reviews

"The Art of Uncertainty contains a lifetime of wisdom from a true master . . . all wrapped in a light and human touch, with one-line insights to die for. I wish it had existed forty years ago; I suspect it’ll still be keenly read in forty years’ time."— Michael Blastland, co-author of The Numbers Game

"Brilliant. . . . A must-read for anyone who aspires to think intelligently about the world we live in."— Sir Adrian Smith, president of the Royal Society

"Part philosophy, part mathematics, part history, [The Art of Uncertainty] is a thoughtful and engaging—without being patronising—introduction to the mathematics of the unknown."— Tom Whipple, Times (UK)

"Timely … David Spiegelhalter is one of the [UK's] most distinguished statisticians, but he’s also one of academia’s best communicators … [The Art of Uncertainty] impose(s) some intellectual order on a subject area that is rife with incomprehension, imprecision, contradiction, and creative obfuscation."— John Naughton Observer

"A superbly entertaining overview of uncertainty in all its manifestations."— David J. Hand, author of The Improbability Principle

Kirkus Reviews

2025-01-07
Probability with a twist.

Spiegelhalter, professor of statistics at Cambridge University and bestselling author ofThe Art of Statistics, emphasizes that he will deliver facts about uncertainty, avoiding matters of debate such as the best Beatle song, what to wear this evening, or the existence of God. Statistics, rules, and even equations come thick and fast, but few readers will miss his warning: Never trust words to express uncertainty. Many times this century, governments have raised the terrorism threat level, warning that an attack is “likely.” The number of attacks that followed—zero. Few agree on the meaning of “unlikely,possible,likely,probable,rare, and so on,” but a number is straightforward. Having set the scene and perhaps delivered more information than readers want to know, Spiegelhalter provides his expert opinion on simple subjects that turn out to be not so simple. Coincidences turn out to be common. Another long chapter discusses luck, which one expert called “the operation of chance, taken personally.” Still another points out that most people who die in car accidents are wearing seat belts, yet belts remain lifesaving. This is proved by Bayes’ theorem, which demonstrates how additional facts can make sense of nonsense. Random numbers are essential in many fields outside of statistics, but they’re extremely difficult to achieve; most readers can’t produce them. He concludes with a long discussion of making decisions and managing risks—perhaps his most practical chapters. Readers should not expect strategy for winning at Las Vegas or the office election pool. Spiegelhalter admits frankly that many concepts are tough going, and readers whose mathematics classes include a taste of statistics will have an easier time.

A satisfying look at the nature of uncertainty.

Product Details

BN ID:	2940194419029
Publisher:	Ascent Audio
Publication date:	03/18/2025
Edition description:	Unabridged

Videos