The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President

by Kyle Kondik

Overview

Every four years, Ohio finds itself in the thick of the presidential race. What about the Buckeye State makes it so special?

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780821422076
Publisher:	Ohio University Press
Publication date:	06/15/2016
Pages:	192
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 0.90(d)

About the Author

Kyle Kondik is one of the nation's top analysts of US House elections. He is the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecasting newsletter published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. He is the author of The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President, also from Ohio University Press, and has edited and contributed to several recent books on US elections. As a frequently cited expert on American politics, Kondik has appeared on CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, PBS NewsHour, and Comedy Central's The Daily Show, and his writing has appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Politico Magazine, and other publications.

Table of Contents

List of Illustrations ix

Acknowledgments xi

Introduction xiii

1 Swing States, Bellwethers, and the Nation's Shrinking Political Middle 1

2 Ohio at the Head of the Flock 18

3 Typical in All Things 35

4 The Civil War at the Ballot Box, 1896-1932 56

5 Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and Nixon-but Not Taft, 1936-1972 73

6 Obama Rewrites the Carter-Clinton Playbook, 1976-2012 93

7 Searching for the Bellwether's Bellwether 115

Conclusion: Will Ohio Remain a Bellwether (and Will It Lose Anything If It Doesn't)? 131

Notes 141

A Note on Sources 157

Bibliography 161

Index 165

Editorial Reviews

Do you care who is elected president? If so, you’d better read this book, because Ohio may well hand the keys to the White House to a lucky candidate this November, just as it has done many times. Kyle Kondik, a brilliant young analyst and rising star in the study of US politics, has made your task easy. This book is well written, richly illustrated, and bursting with gems about the Buckeye State—the center of our universe every four years.”—Larry J. Sabato, director, University of Virginia Center for Politics


“[Kondik] crunches election numbers into entertaining narrative about the state’s defining role in presidential elections since 1896, the latest chapter now unfolding, Donald Trump in the part of wild card.”—Akron Beacon Journal


“Kyle Kondik’s superb research marshals presidential election results, Ohio demographics and the state’s political history to explain why the Buckeye State is America’s presidential bellwether. This book is a must-have for understanding Ohio’s record of backing White House winners every four years—and what that might mean in 2016.”—Thomas Suddes, political columnist, Northeast Ohio Media Group/Cleveland Plain Dealer

From the Publisher