The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election - Updated Edition

by John Sides, Lynn Vavreck, John Sides (Preface by), Lynn Vavreck (Preface by)

Overview

A unique "moneyball" look at the 2012 U.S. presidential contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney

"Game changer." We heard it so many times during the 2012 U.S. presidential election. But what actually made a difference in the contest—and what was just hype? In this groundbreaking book, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck tell the dramatic story of the election—with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach and drawing on extensive quantitative data, they look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that often pass for election analysis to separate what was truly important from what was irrelevant. The Gamble combines this data with the best social science research and colorful on-the-ground reporting, providing the most accurate and precise account of the election yet written—and the only book of its kind.

In a new preface, the authors reflect on the place of The Gamble in the tradition of presidential election studies, its reception to date, and possible paths for future social science research.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780691163635
Publisher:	Princeton University Press
Publication date:	09/07/2014
Edition description:	Updated edition with a New Preface by the authors
Pages:	360
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.10(h) x 0.90(d)

About the Author

John Sides is associate professor of political science at George Washington University and the coauthor of Campaigns and Elections (Norton). He cofounded and contributes to The Monkey Cage, a politics blog. Lynn Vavreck is professor of political science and communications at the University of California, Los Angeles. Her books include The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns (Princeton). She cofounded and contributes to the Model Politics blog.

Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables ix

Foreword by Charles T. Myers xiii

Acknowledgments xv

Chapter 1: Ante Up 1

Chapter 2: The Hand You're Dealt 11

Chapter 3: Random, or Romney? 32

Chapter 4: All In 64

Chapter 5: High Rollers 97

Chapter 6: The Action 141

Chapter 7: The Winning Hand 174

Chapter 8: Cashing In 226

Appendixes 243

Notes 273

Index 323

What People are Saying About This

From the Publisher

"Conventional campaign books portray a fantasy world shaped by brilliant strategists and dramatic events. Sides and Vavreck have invented a new genre—in-the-moment electoral analysis grounded in first-rate political science. Read their book to understand why Barack Obama was reelected, and get your fantasy fix from Game of Thrones."—Larry M. Bartels, author of Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Gilded Age

"In their lively and insightful account of what really happened in the 2012 presidential campaign, Sides and Vavreck replace wild conjecture about gaffes and undecided voters with hard data and broad context. If you want to understand the dynamics of presidential campaigns, turn off the cable shows and read this book."—Alan S. Gerber, Yale University

"Sides and Vavreck have invented an important new genre of campaign book, perfect for our age of accelerated media. Observers of American politics will relish The Gamble for its fresh research and authoritative analysis, even if my fellow journalists resent it for demonstrating how often we got the story wrong."—Sasha Issenberg, author of The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns

"John Sides and Lynn Vavreck have done something remarkable: They've managed to not just report on the 2012 election in real time, but research it in real time, too. They've solved the problem that bedevils those of us in journalism: How to actually know what you're talking about when you're talking about something as fluid and fast-moving as a presidential election. This book should change how we cover campaigns."—Ezra Klein, columnist, The Washington Post

"Sides and Vavreck have done more to bridge the worlds of campaign reporting and political science than any other academics working today. The Gamble, their penetrating and accessible study of the 2012 presidential election, is mandatory reading for anyone who cares about American politics."—Ryan Lizza, Washington Correspondent, The New Yorker

"The 2012 election was when 'Moneyball' defeated 'Game Change'—and Sides and Vavreck explain why political scientists and number-crunchers were able to forecast the results well in advance, while the conventional wisdom was so often wrong. The Gamble is crisply written, comprehensively researched, and carefully argued. It provides the definitive account of what really happened and what really mattered in the campaign."—Nate Silver, author of The Signal and the Noise

Editorial Reviews

Honorable Mention for the 2013 PROSE Award in Government & Politics, Association of American Publishers

From the Publisher

09/15/2013
Barack Obama won the 2012 presidential election because of a slightly improving economy, the advantage of incumbency, and a better get-out-the-vote operation. There, you've now been saved the time of reading this 350-page explanation. Sides (political science, George Washington Univ.) and Vavreck (political science & communications, Univ. of California, Los Angeles) present countless polling numbers, quantitative analysis of news media coverage, and bountiful repetition—all contributing to a dull read. The authors point out that despite the $2.3 billion spent by Mitt Romney and Obama throughout 2012, polls at the beginning of the year showed results almost identical to what actually occurred in November. So one is left thinking, why bother overanalyzing a campaign and election process that had so little impact on the result? VERDICT One might assume that such a title would be of value to ardent political junkies, but the events are so fresh in our memories that there is little unfamiliar here to those who closely followed the election. However, the work may have some value for historians a few years hence. In the introduction, the authors state that, like the election, the book was a gamble for them and the publisher. For the most part, they lost.—Robert B. Slater, Stroudsburg, PA

Library Journal