The #1 English-language bestseller in Chinathe book that is shaping China's planning and policy for the future.
A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, high impact yet all-too-often neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union...all were evident well in advance.
Why do leaders and decision makers keep failing to address obvious dangers before they spiral out of control? Drawing on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, as well as in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world, Michele Wucker shows in The Gray Rhino how to recognize and strategically counter looming high-impact threats. Filled with persuasive stories, real-world examples, and practical advice, The Gray Rhino is essential reading for managers, investors, planners, policy makers, and anyone who wants to understand how to profit by avoiding getting trampled.
Michele Wucker is the author of Lockout: Why America Keeps Getting Immigration Wrong When Our Prosperity Depends on Getting It Right and Why the Cocks Fight: Dominicans, Haitians, and the Struggle for Hispaniola. Wucker has been recognized as a 2009 Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum and a 2007 Guggenheim Fellow. She has held positions including president of the New York City-based World Policy Institute; vice president of studies at The Chicago Council on Global Affairs; and Latin America bureau chief at International Financing Review. She has written for The New York Times, CNN, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, and World Policy Journal, among others. She lives in Chicago
Table of Contents
Preface 1. Meet the Gray Rhino 2. The Problem with Predictions: Unleashing Denial 3. Denial: Why We Miss Seeing Rhinos and Don't Get Out of Their Way 4. Muddling: Why We Don't Act Even When We See the Rhino 5. Diagnosing: Right and Wrong Solutions 6. Panic: Decision-Making Facing a Charging Rhino 7. Action: The "Aha" Moment 8. After the Trampling: A Crisis Is a Terrible Thing to Waste 9. Rhinos on the Horizon: Thinking Long-Term 10. Conclusion: How to Keep from Getting Run Over by a Rhino Acknowledgments End Notes Bibliography Index