What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression

by Michael J. Mazarr, Arthur Chan, Alyssa Demus, Bryan Frederick, Alireza Nader

Overview

The challenge of deterring territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion of it has lagged in U.S. military and strategy circles. The authors aim to provide a fresh look, with two primary purposes: to review established concepts about deterrence, and to provide a framework for evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships. They focus on a specific type of deterrence: extended deterrence of interstate aggression.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781977400642
Publisher:	RAND Corporation
Publication date:	02/15/2019
Pages:	232
Product dimensions:	6.90(w) x 9.90(h) x 0.50(d)

Table of Contents

Preface iii

Figures vii

Tables ix

Summary xi

Acknowledgments xvii

Abbreviations xix

Chapter 1 Understanding Deterrence and Dissuasion 1

Defining Deterrence and Dissuasion 2

A Comprehensive Approach to Preventing Aggression: Strategies of Dissuasion 6

Key Distinctions 7

Intentions, Rationality, and Perception 10

The Choice to Initiate Aggression: Messy Gradual, and Emergent 13

Chapter 2 Effective Deterrence and Dissuasion: A Framework for Analysis 15

Challenges in Determining What Prevents Aggression 16

Category 1 How Intensely Motivated Is the Aggressor? 17

Category 2 Is the Defender Clear and Explicit Regarding What It Seeks to Prevent and What Actions It Will Take in Response? 22

Category 3 Does the Potential Aggressor View the Defender's Threats as Credible and Intimidating? 23

Summary and Proposed Framework for Deterrence Effectiveness 34

Chapter 3 Evaluating and Revising the Framework: Quantitative and Case Study Assessments 37

Quantitative Assessment of U.S. Extended Deterrence Cases Since 1945 37

Qualitative Assessment: In-Depth Extended Deterrence Case Studies 39

A Revised Framework of Factors Associated with Deterrence Success 53

Chapter 4 Applying the Revised Framework: Deterring Russia in the Baltic Region 55

How Motivated Is Russia? 57

How Clear and Explicit Is the U.S. Deterrent Message? 63

Is the U.S. Deterrent Message Credible and Convincing? 70

Conclusion 79

Chapter 5 Conclusions, Recommendations, and Implications for the U.S. Army 87

Recommendations 89

Implications for the U.S. Army 92

Appendixes

A Quantitative Analysis: Cases of U.S. Extended Deterrence Since 1945 93

B Qualitative Case Study Analyses: Berlin 109

C Qualitative Case Study Analyses: Deterring Saddam, 1990 131

D Qualitative Case Study Analyses: NATO's Northern Flank in the Cold War 145

E Qualitative Case Study Analyses: Russian Aggression Against Georgia 165

Bibliography 189