Table of Contents
Preface xiii
Author biography xiv
Part I Introduction
1 Pop quiz: a battery of decision-making questions for self-assessment and reflection 1-1
1.1 Exam conditions 1-2
1.2 Quiz 1-3
2 Anchors aweigh: an introduction to the book, decision making and decision biases 2-1
2.1 A brief history of decision making 2-1
2.1.1 Game on 2-1
2.1.2 Let us play a game 2-3
2.1.3 Homo economicus 2-4
2.2 Bounded rationality 2-5
2.2.1 Heuristics and biases 2-6
2.2.2 Two systems of thinking-an aside 2-6
2.3 Conclusion 2-7
References 2-8
3 On message: reasons for and types of communication 3-1
3.1 Scientific communication 3-1
3.2 Personal communication 3-2
3.3 Policy communication 3-4
3.4 Group communications and decisions 3-5
3.5 Elicitation of uncertainty 3-6
3.5.1 Individuals in crowds 3-6
3.5.2 Crowds in individuals? 3-7
3.6 Conclusion 3-7
References 3-8
Part II Biases in judgement and decision makin
4 Improbable interpretations: misunderstanding statistics and probability 4-1
4.1 Risk, variability and uncertainty 4-1
4.1.1 Risk 4-1
4.1.2 Variability 4-2
4.1.3 Uncertainty 4-2
4.2 Subjective probability 4-3
4.2.1 Monty Hall 4-3
4.2.2 Roll of the die 4-4
4.3 Bias in intuitive probability theory 4-5
4.3.1 Sample size invariance 4-5
4.3.2 Base rate neglect 4-6
4.4 Conclusions 4-8
References 4-9
5 Truth seeking? Biases in search strategies 5-1
5.1 Bounded rationality in search 5-1
5.1.1 Selecting a secretary 5-2
5.1.2 Naturally naturalistic 5-5
5.2 Recognising recognition 5-6
5.2.1 German geography test 5-7
5.2.2 Recognition and other selection heuristics 5-7
5.3 Search strategies 5-10
5.3.1 Confirmation bias 5-11
5.4 Conclusions 5-12
References 5-12
6 Same but different: unexpected effects of format changes 6-1
6.1 Percentages and frequencies 6-1
6.1.1 Base rate neglect again 6-2
6.1.2 Disastrous decisions 6-2
6.1.3 Absolutely twice as bad 6-3
6.2 Nudges, defaults and frames 6-4
6.2.1 Default decisions 6-4
6.2.2 Framing decisions 6-5
6.3 Decisions under framing 6-6
6.3.1 Grant application 6-6
6.3.2 Prospect theory 6-7
6.4 First, last and best 6-9
6.4.1 Who to choose? 6-9
6.4.2 Order effects 6-10
6.4.3 Comparisons and preferences 6-11
6.5 Conclusions 6-13
References 6-14
7 I'm confident, you're biased: accuracy and calibration of predictions 7-1
7.1 Confidence; good or bad? 7-1
7.2 Under and over 7-2
7.2.1 Ignorance is bliss 7-2
7.2.2 The hard-easy effect 7-3
7.2.3 How good a decision maker are you? 7-3
7.2.4 Forms of overconfidence 7-4
7.3 Implications of overconfidence 7-5
7.3.1 Underestimating uncertainty 7-6
7.3.2 Plans and planning 7-7
7.4 Reducing overconfidence 7-8
7.4.1 Format changes 7-8
7.4.2 Inside outside 7-9
7.4.3 Elicitation tools and processes 7-10
Conclusions 7-11
References 7-11
8 Sub-total recall: nature of memory processes, their limitations and resultant biases 8-1
8.1 Remember this 8-1
8.1.1 Forget about it! 8-2
8.2 Available memories 8-3
8.2.1 Shark versus car 8-3
8.2.2 How many and how often? 8-3
8.2.3 Availability bias in science 8-5
8.2.4 Planning fallacy (again) 8-6
8.3 More or less? 8-8
8.3.1 Anchoring searches 8-9
8.3.2 Robust and resistant 8-10
8.3.3 Up anchor 8-11
8.4 Heard it all before? 8-12
8.4.1 Mental break 8-12
8.4.2 Hindsight bias 8-13
8.5 Conclusions 8-14
References 8-15
9 Angels and demons: biases from categorisation and fluency 9-1
9.1 Heights of success 9-1
9.1.1 The halo effect 9-2
9.1.2 Pretty/good 9-2
9.1.3 Him that hath 9-4
9.2 In and out 9-4
9.2.1 Leading lights 9-5
9.2.2 The stereotypical scientist 9-5
9.2.3 Implicit bias 9-7
9.2.4 You remind me of me 9-8
9.3 Easy to believe 9-9
9.3.1 Caveats and clauses 9-10
9.4 Conclusions 9-11
References 9-11
10 Us and them: scientists versus lay-people and individual differences in decision bias 10-1
10.1 Experts and novices 10-1
10.1.1 Trust me, I am an expert 10-3
10.2 Individual differences 10-3
10.2.1 Memory 10-4
10.2.2 Smart decisions 10-4
10.2.3 Decisions with personality 10-7
10.2.4 Stylish decisions 10-8
10.3 Implications for scientists 10-10
10.4 Conclusions 10-11
References 10-11
Part III Implications and solutions
11 Warp and weft: publication bias example to weave it all together 11-1
11.1 Biased science 11-1
11.1.1 Publication bias 11-2
11.2 Judging peer judgement 11-6
11.2.1 The beautiful bottleneck 11-7
11.2.2 Who you know 11-8
11.2.3 Him, her and them 11-9
11.2.4 In agreement 11-9
11.3 Debiasing science 11-10
11.3.1 Revising reviews 11-10
11.3.2 Rewarding replicators 11-10
11.4 Conclusions 11-11
References 11-12
12 Felicitous elicitatlon: reducing biases through better elicitation processes 12-1
12.1 My biases 12-1
12.1.1 The wise fool 12-2
12.1.2 Practice makes perfect? 12-3
12.1.3 A snowflake's chance 12-4
12.1.4 Calculate 12-5
12.2 Your biases 12-7
12.2.1 Expert elicitors 12-7
12.2.2 Elicitation tools 12-9
12.3 Conclusions 12-11
References 12-12
13 A river in Egypt: denial, scepticism and debunking false beliefs 13-1
13.1 Facts, factoids and fictions 13-1
13.1.1 If it does no harm? 13-2
13.1.2 Gullibility is good 13-3
13.2 Boosting behevability 13-3
13.2.1 That makes sense 13-4
13.2.2 Echo… 13-5
13.2.3 …and Narcissus 13-6
13.3 Fool me once, fool me forever? 13-7
13.4 Debunking 13-9
13.4.1 Continued influence 13-9
13.4.2 Familiarity backfire 13-9
13-4.3 Overkill backfire 13-10
13.4.4 Worldview backfire 13-10
13.4.5 Choice architecture 13-10
13.5 Conclusions 13-11
References 13-11
Part IV Conclusions
14 The field guide: general conclusion and spotters guide to biases 14-1
14.1 Spotter's guide to bias 14-2
14.2 Epilogue 14-4
