Chancing It: The Laws of Chance and How They Can Work for You

by Robert Matthews, Larry Gonick (Foreword by)

Overview

Make your own luck by understanding probability

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781510723818
Publisher:	Skyhorse
Publication date:	09/19/2017
Sold by:	SIMON & SCHUSTER
Format:	eBook
Pages:	304
File size:	2 MB

About the Author

Robert Matthews is one of Britain's most experienced and successful science writers and broadcasters. He has won numerous awards for his writing, including the Association of British Science Writers? Feature Writer of the Year Award, and also won an Ig Nobel Prize for showing why toast tends to land butter-side down. He is currently a visiting professor at Aston University, where he specializes in probability and statistics. Matthews lives in Oxfordshire, England.
Larry Gonick is the author of The Cartoon Guide to Statistics and The Cartoon Guide to Calculus.

Table of Contents

Foreword Larry Gonick xi

Introduction 1

1 The coin-tossing prisoner of the Nazis 5

2 What the Law of Averages really means 11

3 The dark secret of the Golden Theorem 14

4 The First Law of Lawlessness 22

5 What are the chances of that? 28

6 Thinking independently is no yolk 32

7 Random lessons from the lottery 36

8 Warning: there's a lot of X about 43

9 Why the amazing so often turns ho-hum 47

10 If you don't know, go random 52

11 Doing the right thing isn't always ethical 59

12 How a lot of bull sparked a revolution 67

13 How to beat casinos at their own game 75

14 Where wise-guys go wrong 83

15 The Golden Rule of Gambling 88

16 Insure it - or chance it? 99

17 Making better bets in the Casino of Life 110

18 Tell me straight, doc - what are my chances? 118

19 This is not a drill! Repeat: this is not a drill! 127

20 The miraculous formula of Reverend Bayes 135

21 When Dr Turing met Reverend Bayes 147

22 Using Bayes to be a better judge 156

23 A scandal of significance 163

24 Dodging the Amazing Baloney Machine 173

25 Making use of what you already know 180

26 I'm sorry, professor, I just don't buy it 186

27 The Amazing Curve for Everything 192

28 The dangers of thinking everything's Normal 203

29 Ugly sisters and evil twins 212

30 Going to extremes 223

31 See a Nicolas Cage movie and die 229

32 We've got to draw the line somewhere 238

33 Playing the markets isn't rocket science 248

34 Beware geeks bearing models 255

Acknowledgements 263

Notes 264

Index 283

Interviews

Make Your Own Luck by Understanding Probability.

Editorial Reviews

Chancing It is filled with surprising insights about the nature of randomness and the randomness of nature, as well as the likelihood of human nature to be misled when it comes to the topic of uncertainty. Written for non-specialists with clarity and humor, it offers sound advice about the uses and abuses of big data and statistics. The chances are good that you will find valuable information here.”
—Arthur Benjamin, author of The Magic of Math and Secrets of Mental Math
“Robert Matthews’s engaging book shows the critical importance of understanding the basic ideas of probability and statistics for life in the modern world. He ranges over counterintuitive properties of chance, through evidence which is there if only we open our eyes to see it, to how to make—and lose—a fortune, all in a clear and accessible way.”
—David J. Hand, author of The Improbability Principle
“With a witty, welcoming spirit of Darrell Huff’s 1954 bestseller How to Lie with Statistics, Robert Matthews has written one of those rare informative statistics books for everyone. In this era’s slippery claims of facts and fallacies, Chancing It is fresh enlightenment on how to judge the random winds of possibility with well-informed skepticism of belief.”
—Joseph Mazur, author of Fluke: The Math and Myth of Coincidence
“Entertaining as well as thought-provoking, Chancing It is a practical guide to the uses and misuses of the science of probability. Alive with anecdotes and provocative in its insights, Matthews’s book will prove invaluable to both laymen and scientists, and to anyone trying to make sense of the daily news.”
—Amir Alexander, author of Infinitesimal
“To survive in the contemporary world no one—from CEOs of major corporations to ordinary citizens—can afford to remain ignorant of chance and uncertainty. Robert Matthews not only reveals the ‘laws of chance’ but cogently explains why no fashionable computer algorithm or mathematical model will ever succeed in totally banishing risk.”
—William Byers, author of The Blind Spot: Science and the Crisis of Uncertainty and How Mathematicians Think
“Robert Matthews is able to choose just the right fascinating anecdotes to illustrate how complex concepts of probability and statistics apply—or sometimes fail to apply—to everyday life. Chancing It clearly explains why we need to be very careful when evaluating probabilistic and statistical claims from journalists, doctors, scientists and salespeople. It is a pleasure to read.”
—Avner Ash, coauthor of Summing It Up: From One Plus One to Modern Number Theory
“Outstanding...an extraordinary writer.... At a time when mathematics needs charismatic ambassadors more than ever, Matthews has written a book of great significance.”
—Oliver Moody, The Times
“Beguiling ... Matthews has the knack of explaining things clearly for the non-specialist, leavening the formulae with intriguing snippets of history and biography ... his enthusiasm contributes to a lively and fascinating narrative.”
—Ian Critchley, Sunday Times
“An excellent handbook for addressing the seemingly illogical logic of chance.”
—Ian Simmons, Fortean Times
“If you’ve ever wondered what is so amazing about an ‘amazing coincidence,’ or what exactly is the First Law of Lawlessness, this is your book. Written in an engaging, informative and humorous style, you’ll learn everything you need to know about the laws of chance, the probabilities of winning the lottery, and the exaggerated—and often misleading—claims about the nature of randomness. Highly recommended!”
—Eli Maor, author of e: the Story of a Number
“Chancing It takes the reader on a delightful tour of probability, offering insights along the way on everything from casinos to insurance to the wisdom of crowds. Matthews combines wonderful anecdotes with clear analysis, giving the reader an excellent overview of what numbers can tell us—and also what they cannot.”
—Charles Wheelan, author of Naked Economics and Naked Statistics
“I’ll never bet on a sporting event, play Vegas blackjack, analyze statistics, or think about how lives turn out the same way again after reading Robert Matthews’s illuminating and important book on the laws of chance and how they work in the real world. Every chapter contains a straightforward explanation of an important concept and a lesson on how to apply it to your life. I learned something new on nearly every fact-filled page. A delightful read.”
—Michael Shermer, columnist for Scientific American and author of Why People Believe Weird Things

“Chancing It is filled with surprising insights about the nature of randomness and the randomness of nature, as well as the likelihood of human nature to be misled when it comes to the topic of uncertainty. Written for non-specialists with clarity and humor, it offers sound advice about the uses and abuses of big data and statistics. The chances are good that you will find valuable information here.”
—Arthur Benjamin, author of The Magic of Math and Secrets of Mental Math
“Robert Matthews’s engaging book shows the critical importance of understanding the basic ideas of probability and statistics for life in the modern world. He ranges over counterintuitive properties of chance, through evidence which is there if only we open our eyes to see it, to how to make—and lose—a fortune, all in a clear and accessible way.”
—David J. Hand, author of The Improbability Principle
“With a witty, welcoming spirit of Darrell Huff’s 1954 bestseller How to Lie with Statistics, Robert Matthews has written one of those rare informative statistics books for everyone. In this era’s slippery claims of facts and fallacies, Chancing It is fresh enlightenment on how to judge the random winds of possibility with well-informed skepticism of belief.”
—Joseph Mazur, author of Fluke: The Math and Myth of Coincidence
“Entertaining as well as thought-provoking, Chancing It is a practical guide to the uses and misuses of the science of probability. Alive with anecdotes and provocative in its insights, Matthews’s book will prove invaluable to both laymen and scientists, and to anyone trying to make sense of the daily news.”
—Amir Alexander, author of Infinitesimal
“To survive in the contemporary world no one—from CEOs of major corporations to ordinary citizens—can afford to remain ignorant of chance and uncertainty. Robert Matthews not only reveals the ‘laws of chance’ but cogently explains why no fashionable computer algorithm or mathematical model will ever succeed in totally banishing risk.”
—William Byers, author of The Blind Spot: Science and the Crisis of Uncertainty and How Mathematicians Think
“Robert Matthews is able to choose just the right fascinating anecdotes to illustrate how complex concepts of probability and statistics apply—or sometimes fail to apply—to everyday life. Chancing It clearly explains why we need to be very careful when evaluating probabilistic and statistical claims from journalists, doctors, scientists and salespeople. It is a pleasure to read.”
—Avner Ash, coauthor of Summing It Up: From One Plus One to Modern Number Theory
“Outstanding...an extraordinary writer.... At a time when mathematics needs charismatic ambassadors more than ever, Matthews has written a book of great significance.”
—Oliver Moody, The Times
“Beguiling ... Matthews has the knack of explaining things clearly for the non-specialist, leavening the formulae with intriguing snippets of history and biography ... his enthusiasm contributes to a lively and fascinating narrative.”
—Ian Critchley, Sunday Times
“An excellent handbook for addressing the seemingly illogical logic of chance.”
—Ian Simmons, Fortean Times
“If you’ve ever wondered what is so amazing about an ‘amazing coincidence,’ or what exactly is the First Law of Lawlessness, this is your book. Written in an engaging, informative and humorous style, you’ll learn everything you need to know about the laws of chance, the probabilities of winning the lottery, and the exaggerated—and often misleading—claims about the nature of randomness. Highly recommended!”
—Eli Maor, author of e: the Story of a Number
“Chancing It takes the reader on a delightful tour of probability, offering insights along the way on everything from casinos to insurance to the wisdom of crowds. Matthews combines wonderful anecdotes with clear analysis, giving the reader an excellent overview of what numbers can tell us—and also what they cannot.”
—Charles Wheelan, author of Naked Economics and Naked Statistics
“I’ll never bet on a sporting event, play Vegas blackjack, analyze statistics, or think about how lives turn out the same way again after reading Robert Matthews’s illuminating and important book on the laws of chance and how they work in the real world. Every chapter contains a straightforward explanation of an important concept and a lesson on how to apply it to your life. I learned something new on nearly every fact-filled page. A delightful read.”
—Michael Shermer, columnist for Scientific American and author of Why People Believe Weird Things

From the Publisher