Getting Monetary Policy Back on Track

In May 2023, the world's top economic policymakers and academics convened at the Hoover Institution for the annual Monetary Policy Conference. They met at a tumultuous time: the previous year, inflation had surged, and some believed the Federal Reserve was slow to react. What was behind this surge, and why did the Fed fail to forecast inflation, or perceive it when it happened? Participants considered whether the sluggish response made the situation worse, and how to get inflation back under control.

This volume presents the full proceedings from this conference—the presentations, responses, and discussions. In it, participants debate the meaning of getting monetary policy "back on track," the significance of recent bank failures, and how to improve forecasting and oversight. A persistent underlying question is whether the Fed should follow a rule-like monetary policy, which maintains predictability in response to fluctuating inflation, GDP, and employment rates. Presenters discuss this issue as they recognize the thirtieth anniversary of the Taylor rule, an important guide to practical monetary policy.

Other topics include a five-century history of central bank balance sheets, inflation targeting in Japan, and lessons from Latin America. Together, these proceedings illustrate and dissect the interaction of financial regulation and monetary policy.

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Getting Monetary Policy Back on Track

In May 2023, the world's top economic policymakers and academics convened at the Hoover Institution for the annual Monetary Policy Conference. They met at a tumultuous time: the previous year, inflation had surged, and some believed the Federal Reserve was slow to react. What was behind this surge, and why did the Fed fail to forecast inflation, or perceive it when it happened? Participants considered whether the sluggish response made the situation worse, and how to get inflation back under control.

This volume presents the full proceedings from this conference—the presentations, responses, and discussions. In it, participants debate the meaning of getting monetary policy "back on track," the significance of recent bank failures, and how to improve forecasting and oversight. A persistent underlying question is whether the Fed should follow a rule-like monetary policy, which maintains predictability in response to fluctuating inflation, GDP, and employment rates. Presenters discuss this issue as they recognize the thirtieth anniversary of the Taylor rule, an important guide to practical monetary policy.

Other topics include a five-century history of central bank balance sheets, inflation targeting in Japan, and lessons from Latin America. Together, these proceedings illustrate and dissect the interaction of financial regulation and monetary policy.

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Getting Monetary Policy Back on Track

Getting Monetary Policy Back on Track

Getting Monetary Policy Back on Track

Getting Monetary Policy Back on Track

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Overview

In May 2023, the world's top economic policymakers and academics convened at the Hoover Institution for the annual Monetary Policy Conference. They met at a tumultuous time: the previous year, inflation had surged, and some believed the Federal Reserve was slow to react. What was behind this surge, and why did the Fed fail to forecast inflation, or perceive it when it happened? Participants considered whether the sluggish response made the situation worse, and how to get inflation back under control.

This volume presents the full proceedings from this conference—the presentations, responses, and discussions. In it, participants debate the meaning of getting monetary policy "back on track," the significance of recent bank failures, and how to improve forecasting and oversight. A persistent underlying question is whether the Fed should follow a rule-like monetary policy, which maintains predictability in response to fluctuating inflation, GDP, and employment rates. Presenters discuss this issue as they recognize the thirtieth anniversary of the Taylor rule, an important guide to practical monetary policy.

Other topics include a five-century history of central bank balance sheets, inflation targeting in Japan, and lessons from Latin America. Together, these proceedings illustrate and dissect the interaction of financial regulation and monetary policy.


Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780817926267
Publisher: Hoover Institution Press
Publication date: 03/01/2024
Sold by: Barnes & Noble
Format: eBook
Pages: 480
File size: 23 MB
Note: This product may take a few minutes to download.

About the Author

Michael D. Bordo is the Ilene and Morton Harris Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Board of Governors Professor of Economics and director of the Center for Monetary and Financial History at Rutgers University.
John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and an adjunct scholar of the Cato Institute.
John B. Taylor is the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution and the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics and director of the Introductory Economics Center at Stanford University.

Table of Contents

Preface
Michael D. Bordo, John H. Cochrane, and John B. Taylor

Welcoming Remarks
Condoleezza Rice

1. Introduction: Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track
John B. Taylor

Europe

Introductory Remarks: Michael D. Bordo

2. After Four Crises, the Euro Needs Clearer Boundaries between Fiscal and Monetary Policy
John H. Cochrane and Luis Garicano

3. The Digital Euro
Markus K. Brunnermeier

4. Monetary Policy in Europe: Out of the Woods?
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

5. Monetary Policy in a Sustainable Union
Luigi Bocola

General Discussion

Global and Emerging Markets

Introductory Remarks: Peter Blair Henry

6. Dollarization as an Effective Commitment Device with Time-Inconsistency Disease and Institutional Anomie: The Case of Argentina
Emilio Ocampo

7. Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track: The Case of Latin America
Tobías Martínez Gonzáles and Juan Pablo Nicolini

8. China’s Monetary Policy: Where Are We Now?
Zhiguo He and Wei Wei

9. Central Bank Independence in Emerging Economies: Recent Successes and Future Challenges
Ross Levine

General Discussion

Financial Regulation and Monetary Policy

Introductory Remarks: Stephen Haber

10. Too Many Rules and Too Much Discretion? Simplifying Financial Regulation
Amit Seru

11. Liquidity Rules Have Increased the Minimum Size of the Fed’s Balance Sheet
Darrell Duffie

12. Can Fed Supervision Be “Independent” under US Law?
Christina Parajon Skinner

13. Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: Lessons from the UK’s LDI Crisis
Carolyn A. Wilkins

General Discussion

Lane Drifting

Introductory Remarks: John B. Taylor

14. Lane Drifting: Remarks at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference
Hester M. Peirce

Employment Dynamics, Labor Markets, the Phillips Curve, and Inflation

Introductory Remarks: Valerie Ramey

15. Extraordinary Labor Market Developments and the 2022-23 Disinflation
Steven J. Davis

16. Employment and Inflation Dynamics in the Monetary Policy Armamentarium
Marianna Kudlyak

General Discussion

The Next Strategy Reviews

Introductory Remarks: John H. Cochrane

 

17. Enhancing Resilience with Monetary Policy Rules
Athanasios Orphanides

18. The Fed’s Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot
Mickey D. Levy and Charles I. Plosser

19. Thoughts on the Federal Reserve’s Policy and Framework
Jón Steinsson

20. Reflections on Central Bank Communication
Christopher Ong, Andrew Sacher, and Lawrence H. Summers

General Discussion

Policy Panel

Introductory Remarks: John B. Taylor

21. Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies
Amir Yaron

22. Central Bank Communications Beyond “How Many?”
Austan D. Goolsbee

23. Connecting Theory and Practice
John C. Williams

General Discussion

Milton Friedman and the Second Wave of the Great Inflation

Introductory Remarks: John B. Taylor

24. Milton Friedman and the Second Wave of the Great Inflation, 1976–1980
Edward Nelson

General Discussion

About the Contributors

About the Hoover Institution’s Economic Policy Working Group

Index

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