Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction / Edition 1

by Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Alexandre A. Soloviev

Overview

The vulnerability of our civilization to earthquakes is rapidly growing, rais­ ing earthquakes to the ranks of major threats faced by humankind. Earth­ quake prediction is necessary to reduce that threat by undertaking disaster­ preparedness measures. This is one of the critically urgent problems whose solution requires fundamental research. At the same time, prediction is a major tool of basic science, a source of heuristic constraints and the final test of theories. This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction. Its following aspects are considered: - Existing prediction algorithms and the quality of predictions they provide. - Application of such predictions for damage reduction, given their current accuracy, so far limited. - Fundamental understanding of the lithosphere gained in earthquake prediction research. - Emerging possibilities for major improvements of earthquake prediction methods. - Potential implications for predicting other disasters, besides earthquakes. Methodologies. At the heart of the research described here is the inte­ gration of three methodologies: phenomenological analysis of observations; "universal" models of complex systems such as those considered in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics; and Earth-specific models of tectonic fault networks. In addition, the theory of optimal control is used to link earthquake prediction with earthquake preparedness.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9783540435280
Publisher:	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publication date:	01/31/2003
Series:	Springer Series in Synergetics
Edition description:	2003
Pages:	337
Product dimensions:	5.80(w) x 9.20(h) x 0.70(d)

Table of Contents

1 Fundamentals of Earthquake Prediction: Four Paradigms.- 2 Hierarchical Models of Seismicity.- 3 Models of Dynamics of Block-and-Fault Systems.- 4 Earthquake Prediction.- 5 Earthquake Prediction Strategies: A Theoretical Analysis.- 6 Recognition of Earthquake-Prone Areas.- References.

Editorial Reviews

"This is an excellent book, [...] the first (to my knowledge) to deal with the Dynamics of the Lithosphere from the point of view of Dynamical Systems. [...] The book is well written and clearly organized. Every chapter is self-contained and addressed to graduate students and researchers in general." (Antoni M. Correig Blanchar, Newsletter of the European Geophysical Society, Oct. 15. 2003)

From the Publisher