Overcomplicated: Technology at the Limits of Comprehension

by Samuel Arbesman

Overview

Why did the New York Stock Exchange suspend trading without warning on July 8, 2015? Why did certain Toyota vehicles accelerate uncontrollably against the will of their drivers? Why does the programming inside our airplanes occasionally surprise its creators? 
   After a thorough analysis by the top experts, the answers still elude us. 
   You don’t understand the software running your car or your iPhone. But here’s a secret: neither do the geniuses at Apple or the Ph.D.’s at Toyota—not perfectly, anyway. No one, not lawyers, doctors, accountants, or policy makers, fully grasps the rules governing your tax return, your retirement account, or your hospital’s medical machinery. The same technological advances that have simplified our lives have made the systems governing our lives incomprehensible, unpredictable, and overcomplicated. 
   In Overcomplicated, complexity scientist Samuel Arbesman offers a fresh, insightful field guide to living with complex technologies that defy human comprehension. As technology grows more complex, Arbesman argues, its behavior mimics the vagaries of the natural world more than it conforms to a mathematical model. If we are to survive and thrive in this new age, we must abandon our need for governing principles and rules and accept the chaos. By embracing and observing the freak accidents and flukes that disrupt our lives, we can gain valuable clues about how our algorithms really work. What’s more, we will become better thinkers, scientists, and innovators as a result. 
   Lucid and energizing, this book is a vital new analysis of the world heralded as "modern" for anyone who wants to live wisely.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780143131304
Publisher:	Penguin Publishing Group
Publication date:	06/20/2017
Edition description:	Reprint
Pages:	256
Product dimensions:	5.00(w) x 7.60(h) x 0.70(d)

About the Author

Samuel Arbesman is Scientist in Residence at Lux Capital, a science and technology venture capital firm. He is also a Senior Fellow of the Silicon Flatirons Center of Law, Technology, and Entrepreneurship at the University of Colorado and a Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation. His writing on science, mathematics, and technology has appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Wired. Arbesman's first book, The Half-life of Facts, examines how knowledge changes over time. He lives in Kansas City with his wife and children.

Table of Contents

Introduction 1

Chapter 1 Welcome to the Entanglement 9

Chapter 2 The Origins of the Kluge 31

Chapter 3 Losing the Bubble 67

Chapter 4 Our Bug-Ridden World 95

Chapter 5 The Need for Biological Thinking 111

Chapter 6 Walking Humbly with Technology 151

Afterword 177

Further Reading 183

Acknowledgments 189

Notes 193

Index 237

Editorial Reviews

Praise for Overcomplicated:

"[Arbesman] argues convincingly...He is undoubtedly right. The dream that we can fully understand our complex man-made systems is just that—a dream."
—The Wall Street Journal

"Acquiring fluency in systems-speak is fast becoming a civic duty... Arbesman’s freshly elucidated concepts are excellent field tools: they are the translucent sampling containers you take with you as you wade through the glitch-infested shallows of an algorithm."
—New Scientist

“I was shocked [by] this elegant, eye-opening book…Fascinating and full of new ideas I will use in argument from now on.” 
—Financial Times

“Overcomplicated has the scintillating, big-idea premise of an ‘it’ business book, but it's more than a Hudson News read: It presents a new way to think about the world that makes seemingly impossible problems approachable. By identifying how tangled our world has gotten, we can figure out the best ways to undo the knots.”
—Vox

"How do we navigate a digital world too complex for any individual to understand? With a sense of wonder and the spirit of a scientist, as Samuel Arbesman argues in this terrific and thoughtful book."
—CLIVE THOMPSON, author of Smarter Than You Think

"With humor, insight, and wide-ranging examples, polymath Samuel Arbesman helps us hack through the tangle of complexity that defines our world today, and shows us how to cope with it."
—STEVEN STROGATZ, professor of mathematics, Cornell University; author of The Joy of x

"Why can’t we understand technology anymore? In this consistently entertaining and insightful book, Arbesman offers a necessary guide to where we are headed and why everything seems so strange along the way."
 —TYLER COWEN, author of Average Is Over

"Complexity science has unlocked new insights in physics, seismology, biology, even finance. In Overcomplicated, Samuel Arbesman makes an original and invaluable contribution to the field by exploring human interaction with complex systems. This excellent book is necessary reading for the layman and the expert alike."
—JAMES RICKARDS, author of The Death of Money

"Read this short book to get over the idea that we can make technology simple. Arbesman will convince you we have only one choice: to indirectly manage ever increasing complexity."
—KEVIN KELLY, author of The Inevitable

"A powerful, concise argument about how to grapple with the mystery and wonder of twenty-first-century technology. It's exactly what we all need."
—CARL ZIMMER, author of Evolution

“Fascinating, alarming, insightful, full of examples and funny.”
—QI.com

From the Publisher

06/20/2016
Arbesman (The Half-Life of Facts), a self-described "complexity scientist," presents a new framework for understanding and working with complex technological systems in this thought-provoking treatise. Arbesman argues that technological systems have become so complicated that not even those who design them fully understand how they work, nor do they always know what to do when their systems fail or return unexpected, possibly catastrophic results. He illustrates this through numerous examples of flaws or breaks in increasingly sophisticated systems such as traffic control, the stock market, machine translation, and medical devices. Despite the damage caused by bugs in programs and other system defects, they are valuable in that they reveal components of the technology at work. Arbesman proposes that programmers and designers approach technological complexity with the mindset of naturalists, who study the natural world by cataloging its variety. By treating failures or glitches in the system as by-products of the evolution of complexity, he says, we can predict paths to new technology and better prepare for the unintentional consequences. Arbesman moves confidently through his layered argument in smooth, clear prose. He convincingly conveys the relevancy of the subject to all types of industries, but his book will mostly appeal to readers interested in the theoretical component of computer science. (July)

Publishers Weekly

06/15/2016
Every computer user has experienced programs that inexplicably crash or, less frequently, exhibit unexpected capabilities. Such behavior arises because the system has reached a level of complexity that is beyond even its creators' skills to disentangle. It may seem strange that human beings can produce such entities. However, Arbesman (senior adjunct fellow, Silicon Flatirons Ctr. for Law, Technology, & Entrepreneurship, Univ. of Colorado; The Half-Life of Facts) points out that this situation is not unique to computer software but can also be found in legal and tax codes and in our infrastructure. In particular, the author stresses the similarity between such systems and biological evolution, in which the process of accretion adds new functions to the original system, imperfectly, but fitting just well enough to make them work. Unlike many who fear the singularity or who are overwhelmed by technological incomprehensibility, Arbesman offers a more optimistic view. He asks readers to accept that at best we can grasp only an overview of the situation, to be content with understanding the portions that are accessible, and to rejoice in being members of a species that has the intellect to produce such marvelous creations. VERDICT This is a short, comprehensible book that should find an audience.—Harold D. Shane, Mathematics Emeritus, Baruch Coll. Lib., CUNY

Library Journal