Predictable Winners: A Handbook for Developing, Forecasting, and Launching New Products and Services

by Stuart E. Jackson, Ilya Trakhtenberg

Overview

A USA Today Bestseller

A leading global consulting firm on how to achieve new product launch success rates far above industry averages.

New product launches are risky. But disciplined innovation practices lead to success rates well above industry benchmarks. Predictable Winners is a comprehensive handbook of best practices for improving the odds of success at every step of the innovation journey—from concept development through commercial launch and beyond. Product leaders, innovation teams, and senior executives will find practical insights to reduce product risk and improve R&D effectiveness and ROI, while delighting customers with a pipeline of compelling new products and services.

The authors' systematic approach is covered step-by-step in twenty-five chapters on topics like assembling the right team, identifying innovation opportunities, conducting a disciplined, data-driven assessment of a new product's revenue potential, making wise investment decisions, and more. Predictable Winners also details how to use quantitative tools to disaggregate and reduce the distinct risks around competing product concepts, customer segments, channels, pricing, and launch planning. Finally, because not all breakthrough innovation comes from internal teams, the authors also explain advanced strategies for improving the odds of success: balancing organic innovation with external acquisitions or licensing.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781503638853
Publisher:	Stanford University Press
Publication date:	03/18/2025
Pages:	318
Product dimensions:	6.20(w) x 9.10(h) x 1.00(d)

About the Author

Stuart Jackson led L.E.K. Consulting as Global Managing Partner and now serves as Vice Chair. He has worked with hundreds of clients who have enjoyed higher growth, increased their profit margins in existing businesses, added scores of new services and products, and completed more than 100 merger and acquisition transactions. He is a past recipient of Consulting Magazine's Top 25 Consultants award. He is the author of the highly acclaimed book Where Value Hides: A New Way to Uncover Profitable Growth for Your Business (Wiley, 2006) and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The Journal of Business Strategy and Harvard Business Review. Ilya Trakhtenberg is a Managing Director with L.E.K. Consulting and a leading partner in its healthcare practice. In his 15 years with L.E.K., he has led hundreds of engagements with a wide range of corporate and private equity clients to develop and launch innovative new products, accelerate business growth, and deliver superior investment returns. He has published more than a dozen journal articles, serves as a regular speaker at industry conferences, and founded L.E.K.'s MedTech Launch Center of Excellence. Ilya is also a past recipient of M&A Advisor's Emerging Leaders Award and a board member of L.E.K.'s global Sustainability Centre of Excellence.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments
Part I: Configuring for Success
1. Use a Systematic Approach to Beat the Odds Why Investing in New Products Is so Difficult and so Important
How Risk and Uncertainty Can Be Systematically Managed
The Benefits of a Systematic Approach
Who This Book Is For and What You'll Find Inside
How Did We Come to Be Leading This Tour?
2. Manage Risks by Evaluating Multiple Indicators of Success Benefits and Challenges of Fast Fail Innovation
Barriers to Change for Established Companies
Lack of Resources for Entrepreneurs and Emerging Businesses
The Catch-22 of New Product Investing
3. Avoid the Seven Behaviors that Reduce the Odds for Many Innovators Overrelying on Intuition, Rather Than Objective Evidence
Rushing into New Areas Where You Have No Right to Win
Fearing Failure If Products Are Not "Absolutely Perfect"
Prioritizing Product Features over Customer Needs and Solutions
Focusing Only on the Short Term or the Long Term
Trying to Own It All
Failing to Flex
Part II: Developing Product and Service Concepts
4. Look for What's Broken, Who's Not Being Served, and How to Leverage Your Strengths What's Broken?
Who's Not Being Served?
How Is Your Company Special?
The "Edge Strategy": Leveraging Unique Capabilities
5. Take Advantage of Direct Market Feedback and Rapid Prototypes The Value of Early Market Feedback
Benefit from Lean Development and Low-Cost Prototyping
Leverage a Variety of Early Signals to Assess Potential
6. Embrace Continuous Upgrades and Lean Development for Digital-Led Businesses Design Sprint for New Concept Development
Trialing the User Experience
Proof of Concept for AI Products
Use Platform Customers for B2B Solutions
Manage Risks for B2B Customers
Network Benefits for Digital Businesses
A Special Context for Innovation: Leaner, Faster, and Networked
7. Move Up the Detect-Analyze-Act Pyramid to Enrich Products Using Digital Applying the Framework: Collins Aerospace
Detect, Analyze, and Act
Create Effective Digital Customer Connections
8. Use a Start-Up Mindset for Breakthrough Innovation in Large Companies Build a Dedicated Team
Balance Risks and Rewards for Team Members
Allow Accelerated Decision-Making with Guardrails
Define Clear Milestones and Tie Budgets to Achieving Them
Example of Breakthrough Innovation Challenges at a Large Corporation
Be Aware of the Challenges of Corporate Venture Capital
Alignment and Investment
Part III: Forecasting Revenue
9. Build a Business Case to Avoid the Product Graveyard The Five Elements of a Robust Business Case
Avoid the Product Graveyard
10. Size the Prize and Identify the Customers You Will Win Define a "Big Enough" Market Opportunity
Identify Growth Tailwinds
Segment the Universe of Potential Customers
Build a Customer Runway
11. Gather Customer Insights, Not "Voice of Customer" Know Your Tools for Market Insights
Get Full Value from Market Interviews
Know How and When to Use Surveys
Derive Insights, Not Data
12. Never Take Market Research at Face Value Getting Adoption Estimates Right
Pressure Test with Analogs and Triangulations
13. Assume Your Competitors Are at Least as Smart as You Are Define Your Current and Future Competitive Set
Understand Your Competitors and Their Advantages and Disadvantages
Use Wargaming to Predict and Prepare for Competitive Responses
14. Price to Unlock the Full Value of Your Innovation Price to Win the War, Not the Battle
Always Start with Value
Select the Right Pricing Model
Determine Your Pricing Strategy
15. Build a High-Confidence Revenue Forecast The Fundamentals of Building Revenue Forecasts
Develop Your Model Methodology
Defining Adoption Curves
Adjusting for Competitive Impacts
Assessing Risk with the 3S's: Sensitivities, Scenarios, and Simulation
The "What You Have to Believe" Sense Check
16. Create a Bulletproof Business Case Put the Case Together with a Strong Narrative
Define Your Ask
Framing Your Ask for Your Audience
Part IV: Ensuring Commercial Success
17. Identify and Lower the Biggest Barriers to Adoption Understand How Customers Buy and Which Stakeholders Will Matter
Proactively Overcome Expected Adoption Barriers
Learning from Uber
18. Plan Enough but Not Too Much The Importance of a Goldilocks Launch Plan
Creating a "Living" Launch Plan
19. Take the Shortest Path to Value, Not to Market "Go Big or Go Home" Launches
Limited Launches and the Art of the Lean Launch
Tradeoffs of Direct vs. Distributor Channels
Manage Channels, Don't Let Them Manage You
20. Prime the Organization for a Successful Launch Organizational Priorities for Start-Ups
Organizational Priorities for Established Companies
Importance of Building Internal Alliances
Organizational Best Practices for Launch
Part V: Creating Long-Term Value
21. Turn a Single Success into an Enduring Franchise Five Areas Where Many Companies Fall Short
The Challenge of Going Beyond the First Product
The Value of a Multi-Platform Product Plan
22. Make Use of Acquisitions and Partnerships to Accelerate Innovation Value The Five-Point Framework
The Power of Partnerships
Breaking New Ground: A Nonprofit Enterprise Bets on a New Subsidiary
23. Embrace Proven Pathways for Long Lead-Time Innovation Managing Your Business as a Series of Inflection Points
A Different Pathway: Aviation
Balancing High-Risk, Long-Term Innovation with Near-Term Wins
24. Use Incremental Developments to Complement Breakthrough Innovation Incremental Innovation: What's Required?
Incremental and Breakthrough: Conflicting Imperatives?
The Role of Execution in Determining Whether a Product Becomes a Breakthrough
Incentives in Large Organizations
Innovation Challenges for Large Organizations
25. Turn Gaps into Strengths for Start-Ups and Entrepreneurs How Entrepreneurs Can Turn Weaknesses into Strengths
Configure to Maximize Advantages
Knowing When to Exit or Find a Partner
Appendix 1: Tools for Market Research
Appendix 2: Real-World Data Resources to Complement Market Research
Appendix 3: Estimating Purchase Intent
Appendix 4: Revenue Modeling Best Practices
Notes
Index

Editorial Reviews

"Success today is often about which teams can change and innovate the fastest. This book will help organizations get new products right the first time. It should be a cornerstone of management development programs." —Paul Walsh, Chairman McLaren Group

"...a menu of options to optimize your chances of winning with new innovations. The framework in this book will help you move faster, be smarter in defining the market and the potential upside, and execute with confidence to increase your chances of success." —Ania Smith, CEO, TaskRabbit

"This is how investors want their CEOs to think. When does a team seek input into product/market fit? Not just at the outset, but every day along the way. When does a team stop pressure-testing the product concept against the market need? Never. When does a product owner stop listening? Never. The lessons provided by the authors are practical, applicable, and invaluable." —Paul LaViolette, Managing Partner, SV Health Investors, former COO Boston Scientific

"One thing I really like about this book is its strategic approach to both internal product development and acquisition of innovative new platforms. Few organizations combine both effectively." —Kevin Mayer, CEO Candle Media, Former CEO TikTok

"Provides a great framework for those of us involved in early-stage product platform development as we make the tough calls on where to place our investment bets." —Paul K. Wooton, Adjunct Professor, Rice Bioengineering & Exec Director Rice Biotech Launch Pad

From the Publisher