Realistic Business Forecasting

Paperback ISBN 9781912777396


'Realistic Business Forecasting' bridges the gap between the academic methodology of forecasting and the practical application of these techniques in any business. There are plenty of books which cover topics of business strategy, such as an assessment of political and legal influences on an industry (a PEST analysis) or an analysis of the market and competitors. Similarly, people wishing to find books on the topic of forecasting will find an abundance of books which go into detail on a wide array of techniques. What Adam felt was missing was a text which blended these two issues; for example, once a firm has determined that a country's economy is likely to weaken and its currency is expected to decline, how can this information be quantified and incorporated into a practical business strategy?


In business, a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis is not an academic exercise, it is a means to build on a company's strengths, relative to its competitors. It is conducted to eliminate (or at least mitigate) relative weaknesses and assess factors in the macro-environment which the firm can use to its advantage, or against which it can build defences. The missing link is how all these factors are related to forecasting and this book provides that link.


A critical part of any project is whether it is economically viable, but too many organisations leave the forecasting element as an afterthought. Adam Simmons has combined his commercial and academic experience to overcome this problem.

He has created a practical and accessible guide for any business large or small, in any sector, to help them build their strategies, in advance, based on 'Realistic Business Forecasting'.

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Realistic Business Forecasting

Paperback ISBN 9781912777396


'Realistic Business Forecasting' bridges the gap between the academic methodology of forecasting and the practical application of these techniques in any business. There are plenty of books which cover topics of business strategy, such as an assessment of political and legal influences on an industry (a PEST analysis) or an analysis of the market and competitors. Similarly, people wishing to find books on the topic of forecasting will find an abundance of books which go into detail on a wide array of techniques. What Adam felt was missing was a text which blended these two issues; for example, once a firm has determined that a country's economy is likely to weaken and its currency is expected to decline, how can this information be quantified and incorporated into a practical business strategy?


In business, a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis is not an academic exercise, it is a means to build on a company's strengths, relative to its competitors. It is conducted to eliminate (or at least mitigate) relative weaknesses and assess factors in the macro-environment which the firm can use to its advantage, or against which it can build defences. The missing link is how all these factors are related to forecasting and this book provides that link.


A critical part of any project is whether it is economically viable, but too many organisations leave the forecasting element as an afterthought. Adam Simmons has combined his commercial and academic experience to overcome this problem.

He has created a practical and accessible guide for any business large or small, in any sector, to help them build their strategies, in advance, based on 'Realistic Business Forecasting'.

34.99 In Stock
Realistic Business Forecasting

Realistic Business Forecasting

by Adam Simmons
Realistic Business Forecasting

Realistic Business Forecasting

by Adam Simmons

eBook

$34.99 

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Overview

Paperback ISBN 9781912777396


'Realistic Business Forecasting' bridges the gap between the academic methodology of forecasting and the practical application of these techniques in any business. There are plenty of books which cover topics of business strategy, such as an assessment of political and legal influences on an industry (a PEST analysis) or an analysis of the market and competitors. Similarly, people wishing to find books on the topic of forecasting will find an abundance of books which go into detail on a wide array of techniques. What Adam felt was missing was a text which blended these two issues; for example, once a firm has determined that a country's economy is likely to weaken and its currency is expected to decline, how can this information be quantified and incorporated into a practical business strategy?


In business, a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis is not an academic exercise, it is a means to build on a company's strengths, relative to its competitors. It is conducted to eliminate (or at least mitigate) relative weaknesses and assess factors in the macro-environment which the firm can use to its advantage, or against which it can build defences. The missing link is how all these factors are related to forecasting and this book provides that link.


A critical part of any project is whether it is economically viable, but too many organisations leave the forecasting element as an afterthought. Adam Simmons has combined his commercial and academic experience to overcome this problem.

He has created a practical and accessible guide for any business large or small, in any sector, to help them build their strategies, in advance, based on 'Realistic Business Forecasting'.


Product Details

ISBN-13: 9781912777402
Publisher: Gaile Griffin Peers X3061152Z
Publication date: 08/12/2020
Sold by: Barnes & Noble
Format: eBook
Pages: 380
File size: 7 MB

About the Author

ADAM SIMMONS MBA MSc BSc has combined a global career in the transportation sector, for public and private sector clients (working on the financial and economic aspects of projects worldwide), with almost 30 years in academia. He has taught on a range of quantitative and qualitative subjects, at post-graduate level.

Table of Contents

Realistic Business Forecasting

Contents

Part 1: Introduction and Overview

Part 2: Essential Quantitative Techniques

Part 3: The Macro-environment

Part 4: Industry and Firm Specific Drivers

Part 5: Introduction to Forecasting Techniques

Part 6: Short-Term Forecasting

Part 7: Long-Term Forecasting

Part 8: After the Forecasts - What Next?

1 Introduction

2 Acme Food Stores Plc

3 Are Forecasting Errors Inevitable?

4 Channel Tunnel- Case Study

5 Sampling

6 Analysing Historical Data

7 Probability & Contingency Planning

8 Queuing & Simulation

9 Simulation: Modelling Major Incidents

10 Working with Constraints

11 Benchmarking

12 Scenarios

13 Elasticities

14 Overview of Drivers Influencing Forecasting

15 Inflation & Exchange Rates

16 Quantifiable Macroeconomic Factors

17 Less Quantifiable Macroeconomic Factors

18 Industry Drivers

19 Internal Drivers

20 Market Positioning

21 Firm Structure & Control Mechanisms

22 Simple Regression

23 Multiple Regression

24 Dummy Variables

25 Regression - Miscellaneous Topics

26 Time Series - Introduction

27 Japan Air Traffic

28 Single Exponential Smoothing

29 Triple Exponential Smoothing

30 Autoregression

31 Acme Food Stores Plc - Time Series Model Comparison

32 Long Term Forecasting

33 Long Term Forecasts CTD 'Science'

34 Long Term Forecasts CTD 'Art'

35 Financial Forecasting

36 How Did It All Work Out?

37 General Index

 

An extract from the Full Contents' list:

1 INTRODUCTION Why this book? / Why Bother with Forecasting? / Short-Term Long-term Forecasting / Focus on Food / The Missing Link / The Modelling Process / Objectives of a Model / Acceptability

2 ACME FOOD STORES PLC Introduction / The Food Store Sector in the UK / Overall Growth / Market Shares / Stores and Revenue per Outlet / Financial Performance in Detail / Employees / Additional Issues for Acme / In Store Operations - Self Scan / Online Sales / Suppliers

3 ARE FORECASTING ERRORS INEVITABLE? / Chapter Overview / Systemic Errors / Technical Errors / Robustness of Forecasts / Ranking Factors by Robustness / Labour Costs / Labour Costs per Unit Produced / Raw Materials / Sector Demand / Company Demand / Company Revenue

4 CHANNEL TUNNEL- CASE STUDY / Overview / Market Volume / Market Shares / Forecasts / General Observations / Market Size / Tunnel Market Share / Closing Remarks

5 SAMPLING / Why Sampling is Important / Mean and Standard Deviation / Normalisation / Sampling, Standard Error and T Distribution / Introducing Sampling / Sample Standard Deviation / Standard Error of the Mean (SEM) / Degrees of Freedom (DoF) / T-Distribution / Degree of confidence / Confidence Interval / German Stores / UK Stores / How Could These Results Change? / Sample Quality / Sampling: Endnotes / Annex on Standard Deviation and SEM / Introduction / The Problem / Method 1- Simulation / Method 2 - Direct Calculation / Back to the Owner's Problem



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