Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making

by Glenn Koller

Overview

Risk or uncertainty assessments are used as aids to decision making in nearly every aspect of business, education, and government. As a follow-up to the author's bestselling Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry: A Practical Guide, Risk Modeling for Determining Value and Decision Making presents comprehensive examples of risk

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781040189030
Publisher:	CRC Press
Publication date:	05/17/2000
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	336
File size:	9 MB

About the Author

Koller, Glenn

Table of Contents

Introduction. Two Approaches to Solving Decision Trees-a Class-Action Suit Example. Terrorism Risk Models-Relative and Absolute Risk. Gathering Information Consistently in an Inconsistent World. New Manufacturing Facility- Business-Justification Model. Oil-Field-Development Investment-Opportunity Risk Model. Using Chance of Failure and Risk-Weighted values to Reflect the Effect of "Soft" Issues on the Value of an Opportunity. Production-Sharing Agreement Risk Model. Scheduling and Optimization Risk Model. Decision/Option-Selection Risk Model. Risk Process to Identify Business Drivers, Maximize Value, and Determine the Value of Potential Expenditures. Summary. Building a Consensus Model. Building a Contributing-Factor Diagram. Monte Carlo Analysis. Decisions and Distributions. Chance of Failure. Time Series Analysis and Dependence. Risk-Weighted Values and Sensitivity Analysis