Read an Excerpt
Introduction
My father graduated from high school, joined the US Army, learned a trade, and saw the world. When he left the army, he was hired by AT&T®, where he worked until he retired thirty-five or so years later. While we commonly understand that career model no longer works today, what I find helpful now is how my father managed to survive the waves of disruption during what we now know as the third industrial revolution, which consisted of the wave of transformations that led to computerization, electronics, and tele-communications technology. I didn’t see it growing up, and unless you’ve given thought to it, you may not have noticed it either if you were raised between the 1960s and 1990s.
My father was a lineman, laying and repairing the copper wires that connected homes and businesses so we could talk on the phone. Back then, it was simply the phone, no need to call it a landline, and AT&T was the phone company. For much of the 1960s and 1970s, it hovered around number ten on Fortune’s list of largest American companies. There is no doubt that AT&T was a huge driver of the third industrial revolution, with its vaunted Bell Labs® driving disruptive innovations in everything from microwave communications to video calling. In that respect, it was great to be part of such a company creating the future. However, it wasn’t all rainbows and unicorns. The new technologies being developed changed the nature of the work during that time, resulting in thousands of employees losing their jobs to the tech.
It wasn’t all about technological change either. Employees lost their jobs and faced pressures for other reasons too—economic cycles, competitive pressures, and the eventual regulatory breakup of AT&T. The economy, political and social disruption, and life events continued as well. This was the time of economically “impossible” stagflation—simultaneous high unemployment and high inflation. The oil embargos. Cold War and détente. Iran hostage crisis. Savings and loan collapse. Relatives getting sick and passing away. It’s a stark reminder that while technology marches forward, creating new jobs and destroying old ones, at the same time jobs are also created and destroyed by economics, politics, and other business factors.
I remember my father bringing home a laptop. That was the 1980s, while the rest of us were getting our first taste of the Apple II® (that’s before the Macintosh®). He would work feverishly every night, even after I had gone to bed, working hard to understand what this machine could do and how it would help him keep his job and take care of his family. As copper wires were replaced with fiber optics, he’d bring home manuals and samples on which to work and practice. Repairing copper wires and glass fiber, while sounding the same, involved different skills. I remember him telling my brother and me that even when you graduate and are done with school, your education can never stop. He wasn’t someone who read Think and Grow Rich or listened to Earl Nightingale, either. This was life showing it to him. It was his devotion to his work and to his family.
These days, there is a lot of talk about artificial intelligence, robots, and other forms of automation, and how these will either bring great fortune or destroy life as we know it. Neither view has much practical value for anyone. Unless you are a head of state, such issues are largely distractions from what’s most important for you—taking care of yourself and your family. It is important to know that there is a lot more change happening than just with AI and robots. We’re in the early stages of a new industrial revolution that is likely going to be more disruptive than any of the changes we’ve seen since the first industrial revolution displaced craftspeople, artisans, and other skilled workers with machines that could be operated by unskilled workers at lower cost while offering quality products affordably to more consumers. These sweeping changes are occurring across industries as well as creating entirely new lines of business.
The boom in automation is rapidly spreading to other types of busi-nesses. As technology advances, machines are becoming attractive alternatives to employees in a broadening selection of industries to perform such tasks as tracking inventory; taking fast-food orders; conducting museum tours; growing and harvesting produce; handling logistics; and finding, retrieving, and processing store orders. Automated systems are even in the process of effectively replacing lawyers, accountants, and medical personnel. The prospect of making an initial investment in automated machines and systems that require limited operational oversight and maintenance is exciting for those running companies and businesses. Costs of using automation are small compared to the continual process of advertising, hiring, training, and managing a host of employees, who tend to create a high turnover rate.
Will new technologies create or destroy more jobs? This is the topic of discussion among political leaders, corporate heads, tech enthusiasts, and economists around the world. While it’s a good question, it is not the question that should concern you. The questions you need to answer are:
1. What will happen to my job and career as new technologies come online?
2. If I lose my job, will I be able to find another job or source of income?
It’s often said that we made it through the previous industrial revolutions better off and stronger than before, and therefore we should be better off after this industrial revolution too. The problem with this thinking is that industrial revolutions typically last decades. That can well be the entire working life of a generation or two of workers struggling to hold jobs, compete with machines, and take care of their families while waiting for the benefits of the industrial revolution to appear. The question is not “Will society be better off a hundred years from now?” but “How will you get through it tomorrow and in the years to come?”
The Great Recession may be an indication of what to expect. The key characteristic of sweeping changes with an impact on entire industries is what we need to be watching. For example, the entire financial services sector was affected. Those who lost their jobs early may have been fortunate enough to find another job in the same or a related industry. However, as job losses quickly rose, there was no place to go if you lost your job. Long-term unemployment rose to levels unseen in the post–World War II era and still remains higher almost a decade later than at the peak of most recessions before it. As the economy recovered, there was little need for companies to rehire past employees because technology evolved to the point where fewer people could do the work.
Complicating the picture is that more than ever, we live in a connected global community that enables us to both enjoy goods and services from people around the world and experience new sources of competition for our jobs and business products. To add to the dilemma, the global population continues to grow. Although the rate of population growth has been slowing recently, there are still a large number of people being added to the planet each day, which equates to more competition for existing jobs as well as more possible customers. The global population has nearly doubled since the 1970s to the present level of 7.6 billion. It is estimated that the world population will grow by 50 percent by the year 2100, reaching 11 billion people. What will 3.5 billion more people do to earn a living? Youth unemployment and underemployment are already serious problems in many parts of the world.
This book explores the issues and seeks to answer the questions that actually matter to you. I also seek to provide you with the means to successfully navigate the changes and disruptions of the fourth industrial revolution so you benefit from the technology instead of being left behind. We look to the past to understand what happened and what lessons we may learn to help us today. We move on to look at the present and what the future is likely to bring, then close with a practical guide to follow.
Alexander Graham Bell once said, “Before anything else, preparation is the key to success.” If you have wondered about or are being threatened by the expansion of automation and how it will affect both your chosen industry and personal life, then The Robot in the Next Cubicle: What You Need to Know to Adapt and Succeed in the Automation Age will answer many of your questions and help you prepare for the coming transition into a world increasingly run by machines.
