Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition

by Michael J. Mauboussin

Overview

No matter your field, industry, or specialty, as a leader you make a series of crucial decisions every single day. And the harsh truth is that the majority of decisions—no matter how good the intentions behind them—are mismanaged, resulting in a huge toll on organizations, the people they employ, and even the people they serve.

So why is it so hard to make sound decisions? In Think Twice, now in paperback, Michael Mauboussin argues that we often fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable.

In this engaging book, Mauboussin shows us how to recognize and avoid common mental missteps. These include misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages, not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision, and relying too much on experts.

Through vivid stories, the author presents memorable rules for avoiding each error and explains how to recognize when you should “think twice”—questioning your reasoning and adopting decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive. Armed with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781422155547
Publisher:	Harvard Business Review Press
Publication date:	11/06/2012
Sold by:	Barnes & Noble
Format:	eBook
Pages:	224
File size:	1 MB

About the Author

Michael J. Mauboussin is chief investment strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. He is also an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School. Learn more at www.michaelmauboussin.com.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments ix

Introduction Smart Is as Smart Does xiii

Chapter 1 The Outside View 1

Why Big Brown Was a Bad Bet

Chapter 2 Open to Options 17

How Your Telephone Number Can Influence Your Decisions

Chapter 3 The Expert Squeeze 37

Why Netflix Knows More Than Clerks Do About Your Favorite Rims

Chapter 4 Situational Awareness 55

How Accordion Music Boosts Sales of Burgundy

Chapter 5 More Is Different 73

How Bees Find the Best Hive Without a Real Estate Agent

Chapter 6 Evidence of Circumstance 85

How Outsourcing the Dreamliner Became Boeing's Nightmare

Chapter 7 Grand Ah-Whooms 101

How Ten Brits Made the Millennium Bridge Wobble

Chapter 8 Sorting Luck from Skill 119

Why Investors Excel at Buying High and Selling Low

Conclusion Time to Think Twice 137

How You Can Change Your Decision Making Immediately

Notes 745

Bibliography 163

Index 179

About the Author 191

Editorial Reviews

“… a fine pick for any business collection strong in management issues, and addresses some of the predecessors of bad mistakes.” — Bookwatch

From the Publisher