Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives

by Stephen Roach

Overview

The misguided forces driving conflict escalation between America and China, and the path to a new relationship

“A timely, fluid, readable assessment of a testy and rapidly changing global relationship.”—Kirkus Reviews (starred review)

A Financial Times Best Book of the Year: Economics
 
In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world’s two most powerful nations wouldn’t have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America’s alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing.

In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations’ economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation’s fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780300273991
Publisher:	Yale University Press
Publication date:	06/06/2023
Pages:	448
Sales rank:	1,047,149
Product dimensions:	6.10(w) x 9.20(h) x 1.30(d)

About the Author

Stephen Roach is senior fellow, Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and School of Management, Yale University. Prior to that he was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, and for the bulk of his career on Wall Street was Chief Economist of Morgan Stanley. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, Mr. Roach served on the research staff of the Federal Reserve Board and was also a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from New York University. Roach has written extensively for the international media and appears regularly on television around the world. He lives in New Canaan, CT..

Table of Contents

Preface as Sequel ix

Introduction: Expedience i

Part 1 On Relationships 9

1 Shared History 13

2 From Convenience to Codependency 35

3 Two Dreams 55

Part 2 America's False Narratives of China 73

4 Bilateral Bluster 77

5 Huawei as a Trojan Horse 101

6 Winning Cold Wars 123

7 From Trump to Biden-The Plot Thickens 147

Part 3 China's False Narratives of America 167

8 Censorship as Conflict 171

9 Consumerism and Animal Spirits 191

10 China with American Characteristics 213

11 A New Model of Major Country Relationships 233

Part 4 Dueling Narratives 255

12 Accidental Conflict 259

13 From Distrust to Trust 279

14 A Path to Interdependency 303

Postscript 321

Notes 323

Acknowledgments 405

Index 409

Editorial Reviews

Stephen Roach . . . believes that China and the US both should and could have a workably co-operative relationship. Instead, they have fallen victim to mutually reinforcing false narratives of the other. Roach insists that there exists a way of trust and interdependence. Conceptually, he is right. Indeed, conflict would damage everybody, possibly catastrophically. But can it still be avoided?”—Martin Wolf, Financial Times, “Best Books of 2022: Economics”

“A powerful new book.”—Gillian Tett, Financial Times

“China and America are locked in a destructive codependence. Stephen Roach is right to apply a psychological lens to the increasing friction between the two countries.”—Rana Foroohar, Financial Times

“A timely, fluid, readable assessment of a testy and rapidly changing global relationship.”—Kirkus Reviews (starred review)

“A highly anticipated book.”—Tom Keene, Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance”

“A remarkable book. Accidental Conflict offers a wealth of evidence about and a new depth of understanding of the underlying forces that drive the Chinese and United States economies.”—Robert J. Shiller, author of Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events

“If you wonder how the US-China relationship has gone from friendly to hostile in a few years, this is the book for you. It details the economic and political processes underlying this change and presents an avenue to avoid ‘Accidental Conflict.’”—Robert Engle, Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, 2003

“Accidental Conflict is a very important and timely book. Its arguments and analyses have the potential to change misperceptions by policymakers and analysts on both sides and avoid a dangerous and mutually destructive course.”—Laura D. Tyson, former chair, White House Council of Economic Advisers

“I can think of no one better qualified than Steve Roach to explain how the China-America bromance went wrong, and how it could, with good will on both sides, be put right.”—Howard Davies, author of The Chancellors: Steering the British Economy in Crisis Times

From the Publisher

★ 2022-09-08
Thorough analysis of the current uneasy relationship between the U.S. and China.

Roach, a senior fellow at Yale’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and author of the prescient book Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (2014), finds the two largest world economies in a clash of dueling and incorrect narratives each holds about the other. Not so long ago, the U.S. and China needed each other to prop up their own flagging economies—China required external demand to support its “export-led” development strategy, while Americans relied on low-cost goods from China—but in recent years, they have undergone a trade war and a tech war. Now, argues the author, they face a new cold war. Both countries constantly seek economic growth, but they both have a savings problem: The Chinese have excessively high savings and low internal consumption, while Americans have little savings and high debt. In illustrating his theme of codependency, Roach breaks down the reasons behind this disparity, fed by the different “national dreams” of the two countries and the persistent “false narratives” they entertain about each other. Harkening back to the mid-1980s, U.S. officials have, for purposes of “political expediency,” often blamed China for many economic problems in the form of intellectual theft, predatory tech practices, and cyberhacking. The author stresses that many of these issues are overblown, and he suggests three areas of focus for conflict resolution: climate change, global health, and cybersecurity. He also suggests “re-opening foreign consulates in both countries…loosening visa restrictions for students and journalists, and restarting educational exchanges like the US Fulbright Program.” Finally, Roach delivers a thoughtful framework for moving from codependency to interdependency, involving a bilateral investment treaty and the establishment of a U.S.–China Secretariat. He concludes that “there is ample opportunity to exercise good faith.”

A timely, fluid, readable assessment of a testy and rapidly changing global relationship.

Kirkus Reviews