Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics

Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics

by Francis Fukuyama

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Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780815729891
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Publication date: 01/27/2008
Sold by: Barnes & Noble
Format: NOOK Book
Pages: 198
Sales rank: 605,943
File size: 360 KB

About the Author

Francis Fukuyama is the Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy at the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies. Among his many successful books are America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy (Yale, 2007), and The End of History and the Last Man (Free Press, 2nd paperback ed., 2006). He is a member of the executive committee and editorial board chairman of The American Interest.

Table of Contents

1. The Challenges of Uncertainty: An Introduction
2. Thinking about Catastrophe
Part I. Cases: Looking Back
3. Slow Surprise: The Dynamics of Technology Synergy
4. U.S. Intelligence Estimates of Soviet Collapse: Reality andPerception
5. Econoshocks: The East Asian Crisis Case
Part II. Cases: Looking Ahead
6. The Once and Future DARPA
7. Fueled Again? In Search of Energy Security
8. Emerging Infectious Diseases: Are We Prepared?
Part III. Forecasting
9. Ahead of the Curve: Anticipating Strategic Surprise
10. Can Scenarios Help Policymakers Be Both Bold and Careful?
11. Innovation and Adaptation: IT Examples
Part IV. What Could Be
12. Cassandra versus Pollyanna: A Debate between James Kurth and GreggEasterbrook
13. Global Discontinuities: A Discussion with Owen Harries, ItamarRabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett
14. American Scenarios: A Discussion with Walter Russell Mead, EliotCohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Levy, Josef Joffe,Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama
15. Afterword

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