Table of Contents
Preface v
1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways 1
The Probabilist 1
The Probabilist's Toys and Language 4
The Probabilist's Rule Book 9
Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 14
Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 20
Liar, Liar 24
Total Probability, Used Cars, and Tennis Matches 28
Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 33
The von Trapps and the Binomial Distribution 37
Final Word 43
2 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles 45
Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 45
Goats and Gloats 50
Happy Birthday 52
Typical Atypicalities 57
Strategies, Shopping, and Spaghetti Westerns 61
The British Snob and I 65
Final Word 70
3 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 71
Probable Improbabilities 71
Saddam and I 75
Taking Tiny Risks 80
A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 82
Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 84
Clumps in Space 89
Final Word 91
4 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue 93
Driving Miss Daisy 93
Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 96
Bayes and My Green Card 98
Objection Your Honor 103
Final Word 112
5 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 115
Great Expectations 115
Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 123
Expect the Unexpected 129
Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 132
Deviant Behavior 138
Final Word 143
6 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results 145
Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 145
Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 149
Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 155
Let's Get Serious 162
Bells and Bread 166
How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 171
Final Word 173
7 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You 175
French Letters 175
Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 179
Craps: Not so Dicey After All 184
Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 187
Math for Losers 193
Win Money and Lose Friends 200
Final Word 210
8 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 211
Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 211
4 out of 10 Like the President 19 Times out of 20 215
Polls Gone Wild 220
The Lawsuit and the Lurker 225
Football Players and Geyser Eruptions 230
Snooping in the Abbot's Garden 237
Final Word 242
9 Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation 245
Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic 245
Random and Not-So-Random Digits 252
Number One Is Number One 253
Is Random Really Random? 256
Final Word 261
Index 263
