Smart, Wrong, and Lucky: The Origin Stories of Baseball's Unexpected Stars

A fascinating look at how MLB teams find diamonds in the rough

In the plainest of terms, baseball scouts are tasked with seeing the future—a distant future, at that. Baseball’s long developmental arc leaves room for plenty of twists and turns on the way to The Show. Some prospects shoot like arrows toward their projected potential, while others fizzle out or chart an unexpected course.

Joey Votto was a lightly scouted high schooler out of Ontario, Canada. Charlie Blackmon was once coveted for...