Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries

by Zack Cooper

Overview

An ambitious look at how the twentieth century’s great powers devised their military strategies and what their implications mean for military competition between the United States and China
 
How will the United States and China evolve militarily in the years ahead? Many experts believe the answer to this question is largely unknowable. But Zack Cooper argues that the American and Chinese militaries are following a well-trodden path. For centuries, the world’s most powerful militaries have adhered to a remarkably consistent pattern of behavior, determined largely by their leaders’ perceptions of relative power shifts. By uncovering these trends, this book places the evolving military competition between the United States and China in historical context.
 
Drawing on a decade of research and on his experience at the White House and the Pentagon, Cooper outlines a novel explanation for how militaries change as they rise and decline. Tides of Fortune examines the paths of six great powers of the twentieth century, tracking how national leaders adjusted their defense objectives, strategies, and investments in response to perceived shifts in relative power. All these militaries followed a common pattern, and their experiences shed new light on both China’s recent military modernization and America’s potential responses.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780300268676
Publisher:	Yale University Press
Publication date:	02/25/2025
Pages:	264
Product dimensions:	6.40(w) x 9.30(h) x 1.10(d)

About the Author

Zack Cooper is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a partner with Armitage International, and a lecturer at Princeton University. He previously served on staff at the Pentagon and the White House.

Editorial Reviews

Zack Cooper’s book is a first-rate example of policy-relevant basic research. Theoretically innovative and empirically rich, it has important implications for the most pressing questions confronting today’s national security analysts and decision-makers: How can a hard-pressed America adapt its military doctrine, strategic objectives, and future investments to best counter an increasingly powerful and aggressive China?”—Aaron L. Friedberg, author of The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895–1905

“In this masterful study, Zack Cooper offers a sweeping account of the remarkably predictable ways that great powers have fashioned military strategy and capacities as they move along the grand geopolitical arc of rise and decline. Drawing on insights from the strategic behavior of leading states from across the twentieth century, the book sharply illuminates the current defense dilemmas facing the United States and China in a rapidly shifting global system.”—G. John Ikenberry, Princeton University

“This outstanding book does what has been urgently needed: providing a road map for U.S. defense policy in Asia. No one else has thought as carefully and comprehensively as Zack Cooper about America’s relationships and defense strategy in Asia, the policy tools available to us, and how to employ those tools in mutually reinforcing ways.”—Kori Schake, author of Safe Passage: The Transition from British to American Hegemony

“Gallons of ink have been spilled explaining the rise and fall of nations, but what explains the rise and fall of militaries and their distinctive defense strategies? Zack Cooper’s novel, synthetic approach examines how broad changes in the relative military balance interact with technology to prompt predictable shifts in approach. This illuminating study is essential reading for all students of defense strategy and the changing dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region.”—Eric S. Edelman, former U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy

From the Publisher