We all make decisions all the time. It's so natural that we hardly stop to think about it. Yet even the smartest and most experienced among us make frequent and predictable errors. So, what makes a good decision? Should we trust our intuitions, and if so, when? How can we avoid being tripped up by cognitive biases when we are not even aware of them?
In You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake!, strategy professor and management consultant Olivier Sibony draws on dozens of fascinating and engaging case studies to show how cognitive biases routinely lead all of us -- including even the most renowned business titans -- into nine common decision-making traps. But instead of rehashing the same old "debiasing" techniques that fail managers time and again, Sibony explains that the best way to avoid the pitfalls of cognitive bias is to craft an effective decision-making architecture in your organization -- a system of techniques and processes that leverage collective intelligence to help leaders make the best decisions possible -- and provides 40 concrete methods for doing so.
Distinctive in the clarity and practicality of its message, You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake! distills the latest developments in behavioral economics and cognitive psychology into actionable tools for making smart, effective decisions in business and beyond.
"Succinct, accurate, and even-handed. I loved it!" (Angela Duckworth, bestselling author of Grit)
"The best, funniest, most useful guide to cognitive bias in business. If you make decisions, you need to read this book." (Safi Bahcall, bestselling author of Loonshots)
|Publisher:||Little, Brown and Company|
|Sold by:||Hachette Digital, Inc.|
|File size:||2 MB|
About the Author
Table of Contents
Introduction: You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake (Unless You Read On) 3
Part 1 The Nine Traps
1 "Too Good Not to Be True" 18
The Storytelling Trap
2 "Steve Jobs Was Such a Genius" 36
The Imitation Trap
3 "I've Seen This Before" 48
The Intuition Trap
4 "Just Do It" 61
The Overconfidence Trap
5 "Why Rock the Boat?" 76
The Inertia Trap
6 "I Want You to Take Risks" 93
The Risk Perception Trap
7 "The Long Term Is a Long Way Off" 108
The Time Horizon Trap
8 "Everyone's Doing It" 120
The Groupthink Trap
9 "I'm Not Thinking of Myself, of Course" 136
The Conflict of Interest Trap
Part 2 Deciding How to Decide
10 Human, All Too Human 150
Are Cognitive Biases the Root of All Evil?
11 Lose a Battle, Win the War 161
Can We Overcome Our Own Biases?
12 When Failure Is Not an Option 174
Collaboration Plus Process
13 A Good Decision Is a Decision Made the Right Way 187
Is Paul the Psychic Octopus a Good Decision Maker?
Part 3 The Decision Architect
14 Dialogue 208
15 Divergence 232
Seeing Things from a Different Angle
16 Dynamics 259
Changing Your Decision-Making Processes and Culture
You're About to Make Excellent Decisions