Avoiding the Fall

by Michael Pettis

Overview

The days of rapid economic growth in China are over. Mounting debt and rising internal distortions mean that rebalancing is inevitable. Beijing has no choice but to take significant steps to restructure its economy. The only question is how to proceed. Michael Pettis debunks the lingering bullish expectations for China's economic rise and details Beijing's options. The urgent task of shifting toward greater domestic consumption will come with political costs, but Beijing must increase household income and reduce its reliance on investment to avoid a fall.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780870034077
Publisher:	Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Publication date:	09/11/2014
Edition description:	New Edition
Pages:	172
Product dimensions:	5.90(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.50(d)

About the Author

Michael Pettis is a senior associate in the Carnegie Asia Program. An expert on China's economy, Pettis is a professor of finance at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets.

Table of Contents

Foreword Douglas H. Paal vii

Chapter 1 The Limits of the Chinese Growth Model 1

Chapter 2 China's Domestic Imbalances 21

Chapter 3 Is Overinvestment a Problem? 45

Chapter 4 Monetary Policy Under Financial Repression 61

Chapter 5 How Will China Rebalance? 77

Chapter 6 The Mechanics of Rebalancing 99

Chapter 7 How to Be a China Bull 119

Appendix: What Happens if China Revalues the Renminbi? 145

Index 151

About the Author 159

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 161

Editorial Reviews

"A fascinating and provocative read for anyone interested in China's economy."--J.C. de Swaan, Lecturer in Economics, Princeton University, and Principal, Cornwall Capital

"Can China make it past the middle-income trap? Having lived and taught in Beijing for more than a decade, Pettis is uniquely qualified to address this and many other key issues. Don't miss this book."--Arminio Fraga Neto, Former President, Central Bank of Brazil

"Insightful and compellingly argued, this well-timed book is a valuable key to understanding why the engine that propelled China's thirty-year ascent is now threatened with power failure."--Guy de Jonquieres, Senior Fellow, European Centre for International Political Economy"

From the Publisher