Ecological Risk Assessment

Ecological Risk Assessment

by Glenn W. Suter II

Hardcover(Older Edition)

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Overview

Ecological Risk Assessment by Glenn W. Suter II

The definitive reference in its field, Ecological Risk Assessment, Second Edition details the latest advances in science and practice. In the fourteen years since the publication of the best-selling first edition, ecological risk assessment (ERA) has moved from the margins into the spotlight. It is now commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds, and other environmental management issues.

Delineating the processes for performing an ERA, the book begins by defining the field, then goes on to describe its relationship to other environmental assessment practices and its organizational framework. The book also includes a chapter on ecological epidemiology, which has previously been treated as a type of ERA, but is now recognized as a distinct practice in itself. It Fiveexplores important concepts in the ERA process including probability, uncertainty, scale, mode of action and multiple causes.

Reflecting changes in the field, the book's scope has been broadened to include discussions of the application of ERA to agents other than chemical contaminants. The multitude of illustrative figures provides a flavor for the diverse practice of ERA. The author has re-organized the material, presenting a unitary process of ERA that is applicable to various problems, scales, and mandates. He keeps the emphasis squarely on providing clear, scientifically sound, and unbiased technical advice on the risks from chemicals and chemical mixtures.

Product Details

ISBN-13: 9780873718752
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Publication date: 10/23/1992
Edition description: Older Edition
Pages: 560
Product dimensions: 6.12(w) x 9.25(h) x 1.39(d)

Table of Contents


Introduction to Ecological Risk Assessment     1
Defining the Field     3
Predictive vs. Retrospective Risk Assessment     4
Risks, Benefits, and Costs     5
Decisions to Be Supported     5
Prioritization of Hazards     5
Comparison of Alternative Actions     6
Permitting Releases     7
Chemicals     7
Effluents and Wastes     8
New Organisms     8
Items in International Trade     8
Limiting Loading     8
Remediation and Restoration     9
Permitting and Managing Land Uses     10
Species Management     10
Setting Damages     10
Sociopolitical Purposes of Risk Assessment     12
Cast of Characters     12
Assessors     12
Risk Managers     12
Stakeholders     13
Other Types of Assessments     15
Monitoring Status and Trends     15
Setting Standards     16
Life Cycle Assessment     16
Prohibitions     16
Technology-Based Rules     17
Best Practices, Rules, or Guidance     17
PrecautionaryPrinciple     18
Adaptive Management     19
Analogy     20
Ecosystem Management     20
Health Risk Assessment     21
Environmental Impact Assessment     21
Summary     21
Ecological Risk Assessment Frameworks     25
Basic US EPA Framework     25
Alternative Frameworks     27
WHO-Integrated Framework     28
Multiple Activities     29
Ecological Epidemiology     30
Causal Chain Framework     31
Extended Frameworks     33
Iterative Assessment     33
Screening vs. Definitive Assessments     35
Baseline vs. Alternatives Assessments     36
Iterative Assessment as Adaptive Management     36
Problem-Specific Frameworks     36
Conclusions     37
Ecological Epidemiology and Causal Analysis     39
Biological Surveys     40
Biological Assessment     42
Causal Analysis     44
Identifying Candidate Causes     47
What is a Cause?     47
Developing the List     49
Developing Maps and Conceptual Models     49
Analyzing the Evidence     50
Evidence of Co-occurrence     51
Evidence of Sufficiency     52
Evidence of Temporality     52
Evidence from Manipulation     53
Evidence of Coherence     53
Characterizing Causes     54
Elimination     54
Diagnostic Protocols and Keys     55
Koch's Postulates     55
Strength-of-Evidence Analysis     57
Iteration of Causal Analysis     67
Identifying Sources and Management Alternatives     67
Risk Assessment in Ecoepidemiology     68
Summary     68
Variability, Uncertainty, and Probability     69
Sources of Unpredictability     69
Variability     69
Uncertainty     70
Variability Uncertainty Dichotomy     70
Combined Variability and Uncertainty     71
Error     71
Ignorance and Confusion     72
Summary of Sources     72
What is Probability?     72
Types of Probability: Frequency vs. Belief     73
Frequency     73
Belief     73
Types of Probability: Categorical vs. Conditional      74
Ways to Analyze Probabilities     74
Frequentist Statistics     75
Bayesian Statistics     77
Resampling Statistics     78
Other Approaches     79
Why Use Probabilistic Analyses?     79
Desire to Ensure Safety     79
Desire to Avoid Excessive Conservatism     80
Desire to Acknowledge and Present Uncertainty     80
Need to Estimate a Probabilistic Endpoint     80
Planning Sampling and Testing     81
Comparing Hypotheses and Associated Models     81
Aiding Decision Making     82
Summary of Reasons     82
Techniques for Analysis of Variabihty and Uncertainty     82
Uncertainty Factors     82
Confidence Intervals     83
Data Distributions     84
Statistical Modeling     85
Monte Carlo Analysis and Uncertainty Propagation     86
Nested Monte Carlo Analysis     86
Sensitivity Analysis     88
Listing and Qualitative Evaluation     89
Probability in the Risk Assessment Process     89
Defining Exposure Distributions     90
Defining Effects Distributions     91
Estimating Risk Distributions     92
Parameters to Treat as Uncertain     93
Summary     94
Dimensions, Scales, and Levels of Organization     95
Levels of Organization     95
Spatial and Temporal Scales     98
Regional Scale     100
Dimensions     100
Abundance or Intensity of the Agent     100
Temporal Duration     101
Space     101
Proportion Affected     101
Severity of the Effects     102
Type of Effect     102
What to do with Multiple Dimensions?     103
Modes and Mechanisms of Action     105
Chemical Modes and Mechanisms     105
Testing for Mechanisms     109
Nonchemical Modes and Mechanisms     109
Mixed and Multiple Agents     111
Chemical Mixtures     111
Methods Based on Whole Mixtures     112
Methods Based on Tests of Components     115
Simple Similar Action and Concentration Addition     116
Independent Action and Response Addition     118
Interactive Action     121
Multiple Chemicals and Multiple Species     121
Integration of Complex Chemical Mixtures      122
Multiple and Diverse Agents     123
Categorize and Combine Agents     125
Determine Spatial and Temporal Overlap     125
Define Effects and Mode of Action     125
Screen Effects     126
Simple Additive Effects     127
Additive Exposures     127
Mechanistic Models of Combined Effects     128
Integration of Complex Sets of Agents and Activities     128
Quality Assurance     129
Data Quality     130
Primary Data     130
Secondary Data     132
Defaults and Assumptions     134
Representing Data Quality     135
Data Management     135
Model Quality     136
Quality of Probabilistic Analyses     139
Assessment Quality     142
Process Quality     142
Peer Review of the Assessment     143
Replication of Assessments     143
Summary     144
Planning and Problem Formulation     145
Impetus and Mandate     147
Goals and Objectives     149
Management Options     151
Agents and Sources     153
Emissions      153
Activities and Programs     154
Sources of Causes     154
Properties of the Agent     154
Sources of Indirect Exposure and Effects     154
Screening Sources and Agents     155
Environmental Description     157
Exposure Scenarios     161
Assessment Endpoints     163
Assessment Endpoints and Levels of Organization     166
Generic Assessment Endpoints     167
Generic Endpoints Based on Policy Judgments     167
Functionally Defined Generic Endpoints     168
Applying Generic Endpoints     170
Making Generic Assessment Endpoints Specific     171
Endpoints Based on Objectives Hierarchies     174
Conceptual Models     177
Uses of Conceptual Models     177
Forms of Conceptual Models     180
Creating Conceptual Models     181
Linkage to Other Conceptual Models     187
Analysis Plans     189
Choosing Measures of Exposure, Effects, and Environmental Conditions     189
Reference Sites and Reference Information     191
Information Concerning the Precontamination or Predisturbance State     191
Model-Derived Information      192
Information Concerning Other Sites     192
Information Concerning a Regional Reference     194
Gradients as Reference     194
Positive Reference Information     195
Goals as an Alternative to Reference     195
Analysis of Exposure     197
Source Identification and Characterization     199
Sources and the Environment     199
Unknown Sources     200
Summary     201
Sampling, Analysis, and Assays     203
Sampling and Chemical Analysis of Media     203
Sampling and Sample Preparation     204
Encountered Data     205
Screening Analyses     205
Analysis of Cofactors     205
Water     208
Sediment     208
Soil     209
Biota and Biomarkers     209
Bioassays     212
Biosurveys     213
Sampling, Analysis, and Probabilities     214
Conclusions     215
Mathematical Models of Chemical Transport and Fate     217
Objectives     217
Basic Modeling Concepts     217
Emissions or Loadings     218
Point and Nonpoint Sources     219
Steady-State and Non-Steady-State Sources     219
Importance of Scale     219
Formulating Mass Balance Models     220
Defining Compartments     220
Reaction Rates     220
Transport Rates     222
Emissions     224
Solutions to the Mass Balance Equation     224
Complexity, Validity, and Confidence Limits     225
Illustration of a Simple Mass Balance Model     226
The System Being Modeled     226
Concentration Calculation     227
Chemical Input Rate     227
Partifioning between Water, Particles, and Fish     227
Outflow in Water     228
Outflow in Particles     228
Reaction     228
Deposition to Sediment     228
Evaporation     228
Combined Loss Processes     228
Fugacity Calculation     229
Discussion     231
Chemicals of Concern and Models Simulating their Behavior     232
General Multimedia Models     232
Level I     233
Level II     233
Level III     233
Level IV     233
Fugacity Models     234
CalTOX Model     234
Simplebox Model     234
Regional, Continental, and Global-Scale Models     234
Models Specific to Environmental Media     234
Plume Models in General     235
Atmospheric Models     235
Aquatic Models     235
Soil Models     236
Fish Uptake and Food Chain Models     236
Miscellaneous Models     237
Models Specific to Chemical Classes     237
Agricultural Pesticides     237
Veterinary Medicines     239
Biocides     240
Metals     240
Concluding Thoughts on Selecting and Applying Models     241
Exposure to Chemicals and Other Agents     243
Exposure Models     245
Exposure to Chemicals in Surface Water     245
Exposure to Chemicals in Sediment     247
Exposure to Contaminants in Soil     250
Chemical Analyses to Estimate Exposure     250
Partial Chemical Extraction and Normalization     251
Input Form of the Chemical     252
Chemical Interactions     253
Nonaqueous Phase Liquids     253
Soil Depth Profile      253
Exposure of Terrestrial Plants     254
Rooting Depth     254
Rhizosphere     254
Wetland Plant Exposures     255
Soil Properties and Exposure of Plants     255
Plant Interspecies Differences     255
Plant Exposure in Air     255
Exposure of Soil Invertebrates     256
Depth of Exposure and Ingested Material     256
Soil Properties and Chemical Interactions     257
Exposure of Soil Microbial Communities     257
Exposure of Wildlife     257
Exposure Models Based on External Measures     258
Dermal Exposure     258
Inhalation Exposure     259
Oral Exposure     259
Spatial Issues in Wildlife Exposure     261
Temporal Issues in Wildlife Exposure     262
Exposure Modifying Factors     263
Parameters for Estimation of Exposure     263
Body Weight     263
Food and Water Consumption Rates     263
Inhalation Rates     265
Soil and Sediment Consumption     266
Home Range and Territory Size     266
Uptake Models     268
Aquatic Organism Uptake      271
Neutral Organics     273
Ionizing Organic Chemicals     275
Inorganic and Organometaiic Chemicals     275
Aquatic Plants     276
Aquatic Toxicokinetics     276
Benthic Invertebrate Uptake     277
Terrestrial Plant Uptake     278
Soil Uptake     278
Empirical Models of Inorganic Chemicals     278
Empirical Models for Organic Chemicals     281
Surface Contamination     281
Plant Tissue Type     283
Mechanistic Models     283
Earthworm Uptake     284
Terrestrial Arthropod Uptake     286
Terrestrial Vertebrate Uptake     287
Exposure to Petroleum and other Chemical Mixtures     287
Exposure to Natural Extreme Events     291
Exposure to Organisms     291
Probability and Exposure Models     291
Presenting the Exposure Characterization     294
Analysis of Effects     295
Exposure-Response Relationships     297
Approaches to Exposure-Response     301
Mechanistic Models     301
Regression Models     301
Statistical Significance     302
Interpolation      303
Effect Level and Confidence     303
Issues in Exposure-Response     303
Thresholds and Benchmarks     303
Time as Exposure and Response     305
Combined Concentration and Duration     306
Nonmonotonic Relationships     307
Categorical Variables     308
Exposure-Response from Field Data     309
Residue-Response Relationships     313
Toxicodynamics-Mechanistic Internal Exposure-Response     317
Toxicodynamics of Metals on Gills     318
Indirect Effects     319
Testing     321
Testing Issues     321
Chemical or Material Tests     323
Aquatic Tests     324
Sediment Tests     325
Soil Tests     326
Oral and Other Wildlife Exposures     327
Microcosms and Mesocosms     328
Effluent Tests     332
Media Tests     333
Contaminated Water Tests     337
Contaminated Sediment Tests     338
Contaminated Soil Tests     339
Ambient Media Tests with Wildlife     340
Field Tests     341
Aquatic Field Tests      341
Field Tests of Plants and Soil Organisms     343
Wildlife Field Tests     343
Testing Organisms     344
Testing Other Nonchemical Agents     345
Summary of Testing     345
Biological Surveys     347
Aquatic Biological Surveys     348
Periphyton     349
Plankton     350
Fish     350
Benthic Invertebrates     351
Terrestrial Biological Surveys     353
Soil Biological Surveys     353
Wildlife Surveys     354
Terrestrial Plant Surveys     354
Physiological, Histological, and Morphological Effects     355
Uncertainties in Biological Surveys     356
Summary     356
Organism-Level Extrapolation Models     357
Structure-Activity Relationships     357
Chemical Domains for SARs     358
Approaches for SARs     358
State of SARs     359
Effects Extrapolation Approaches     359
Classification and Selection     360
Factors     360
Species Sensitivity Distributions     361
Regression Models     366
Temporal Extrapolation of Exposure-Response Models     367
Factoids Derived from Statistical Models     368
Allometric Scaling     371
Toxicokinetic Modeling for Extrapolation     372
Multiple and Combined Approaches     373
Extrapolations for Particular Biotas     373
Aquatic Biota     373
Benthic Invertebrates     374
Wildlife     375
Soil Invertebrates and Plants     376
Soil Processes     378
Water Chemistry     378
Soil Properties     379
Laboratory to Field     379
Summary     381
Population Modeling     383
Basic Concepts and Definitions     385
Population-Level Assessment Endpoints     385
Implications of Life History for Population-Level Ecological Risk Assessment     385
Representation and Propagation of Uncertainty     386
Density Dependence     386
Approaches to Population Analysis     387
Potential Population Growth Rate     387
Projection Matrices     389
Aggregated Models     393
Metapopulation Models     394
Individual-Based Models     395
Applications to Toxic Chemicals     397
Quantifying Uncertainties in Individual-to-Population Extrapolations     398
Life History-Based Ecological Risk Assessment     401
Quantifying Impacts of Chemical Exposures on Risk of Extinction     403
Quantifying Impacts of Chemicals on Metapopulations     406
Individual-Based Models     408
Future of Population Modeling in Ecological Risk Assessment     410
Ecosystem Effects Modeling     413
An Ecosystem Paradigm     413
Ecosystem Risk Assessment     414
Ecosystem Assessment Endpoints     415
Ecosystem Simulation Modeling     415
Physical Ecosystem Models     416
Ecosystem Network Analysis     417
Compartment Models     420
Existing Ecosystem Risk Models     421
AQUATOX     421
CASM     421
IFEM     422
Model Selection, Adaptation, and Development     422
Model Selection     422
Model Adaptation and Development     423
Model Structure     424
Governing Equations     424
Scaling     424
Exposure-Response Functions     425
Data      426
Innovations in Ecosystem Modeling     426
Structurally Dynamic Models     427
Interactive Modeling Platforms     427
Network-Enabled Ecosystem Models     427
Ecosystem Animation     427
Ecosystem Models, Risk Assessment, and Decision making     428
Model Results and NOECs     428
Atrazine Levels of Concern     429
Models or Modelers     431
Risk Characterization     433
Criteria and Benchmarks     435
Criteria     435
Screening Benchmarks     437
Criteria as Screening Benchmarks     437
Tier II Values     437
Benchmarks Based on Exposure-Response Models     438
Thresholds for Statistical Significance     438
Test Endpoints with Safety Factors     438
Distributions of Effects Levels     438
Equilibrium Partitioning Benchmarks     439
Averaged Values as Benchmarks     439
Ecoepidemiological Benchmarks     439
Summary of Screening Benchmarks     440
Integrating Exposure and Exposure-Response     441
Quotient Methods     441
Exposure is Distributed and Response is Fixed      442
Both Exposure and Response are Distributed     443
Integrated Simulation Models     445
Integration of Sense and Nonsense     446
Integration in Space     448
Examples     450
Shrews on a Mercury-Contaminated Site     450
Egrets and Eagles in South Florida     450
Egrets and Herons in Hong Kong     450
Bioaccumulative Contaminants in a Stream     451
Secondary Poisoning in Hawaii     451
Atrazine     452
Warming Subalpine Forests     452
Summary     453
Screening Characterization     455
Screening Chemicals and Other Agents     455
Quotients     456
Scoring Systems     457
Screening for Properties     457
Logical Criteria     457
Screening Sites     457
Screening Chemicals at Sites     458
Screening Against Background     459
Screening Against Detection Limits     461
Screening Against Waste Constituents     462
Screening Against Physical-Chemical Properties     462
Screening Against Ecotoxicological Benchmarks     462
Screening Species Against Area      464
Exposure Concentrations for Sites     464
Screening Media     465
Screening Receptors     465
Screening Sites     465
Data Adequacy and Uncertainties     465
Presentation of a Site Screening Assessment     466
Examples     467
Definitive Risk Characterization by Weighing the Evidence     469
Weighing Evidence     469
Sediment Quality Triad: A Simple and Clear Inference Method     471
Inference to the Best Conclusion at Contaminated Sites     473
Single-Chemical Toxicity     473
Aquatic Organisms     475
Benthic Invertebrates     476
Soil Exposure of Plants, Invertebrates, and Microbial Communities     477
Multimedia Exposure of Wildlife     478
Body Burdens of Endpoint Organisms     481
Ambient Media Toxicity Tests     482
Biological Surveys     487
Biomarkers and Pathologies     490
Weight of Evidence     492
Weighting Considerations     494
Risk Estimation     498
Future Risks     499
Examples     500
Characterizing Contaminated Site Risks     500
Characterizing Contaminated Sediment Risks     502
Characterizing Wildlife Risks     503
Characterizing Pesticide Risks     504
Characterizing Effluent Risks     505
Interpretation     506
Comparative Risk Characterization     509
Methods of Comparative Risk Characterization     510
Risk Ranking     510
Risk Classification     511
Relative Risk Scaling     511
Relative Risk Estimation     511
Net Environmental Benefits Analysis     511
Economic Units     513
Reporting Comparative Risk     513
Comparison and Uncertainty     513
Summary     513
Characterizing Variability, Uncertainty, and Incomplete Knowledge     515
Characterizing Variability     515
Characterizing Uncertainty     516
Uncertainty and Weight of Evidence     517
Biases     518
Limitations     518
Conclusions     519
Risk Management     521
Reporting and Communicating Ecological Risks     523
Reporting Ecological Risks     533
Communicating Ecological Risks     525
Decision Making and Ecological Risks      529
Preventing Exceedence of Standards     529
Preventing Adverse Effects     529
Minimizing Risks     530
Assuring Environmental Benefits     530
Maximizing Cost-Effectiveness     530
Balancing Costs and Benefits     530
Decision Analysis     531
Miscellaneous and Ad Hoc Considerations     531
Integration of Human Health Risk Assessment     533
Wildlife as Sentinels     533
Integrated Analysis of Human and Ecological Risks     534
Coherent Expression of Assessment Results     534
Interdependence     535
Quality     535
Efficiency     535
Environmental Condition and Human Welfare     536
Summary     536
Integration of Risk, Law, Ethics, Economics, and Preferences     537
Ecological Risk and Law     537
Ecological Risk and Economics     538
Ecological Risk and Ethics     541
Ecological Risk, Stakeholder Preferences, and Public Opinion     542
Conclusions     542
Monitoring the Results of Risk Management     543
The Future of Ecological Risk Assessment     547
Glossary      549
References     561
Index     625

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