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This is a general introduction to the mathematical techniques needed to understand epidemiology. It begins with an historical outline of some disease statistics, before describing simple mathematical models for epidemics. A range of methods for constructing and analysing models is provided. Questions of fitting data to models, and their use in understanding methods for controlling the spread of infection are discussed. Exercises and complementary results at the end of each chapter extend the scope of the text.
Table of ContentsPreface; 1. Some history; 2. Deterministic models; 3. Stochastic models in continuous time; 4. Stochastic models in discrete time; 5. Rumours: modelling spread and its cessation; 6. Fitting epidemic data; 7. The control of epidemics; References and author index; Subject index.