Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America

This book describes how Cold War researchers used expert opinions to construct foreknowledge of geopolitical relevance. Focusing on the RAND Corporation, an American think tank with close relations to the armed forces, Dayé analyses the development of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming.

Based on archival research and interviews, the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how contemporary social scientists conceived of on...