Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners

by William L. Ascher

Overview

Energy needs . . . oil supplies . . . inflation rates . . . the demand for new homes . . . in concerns like these, forecasting plays a crucial role. Forecasts not only determine how billions of dollars will be spent but also commit national policies far into the future; yet, no one really knows how to judge the reliability of forecasts. In this innovative study, William Ascher examines the records of expert forecasting of national trends in population, economics, energy, transportation, and technology over a fifty-year period. The results help to identify both the accuracies and hidden biases of forecasting techniques, information that should be of vital interest to all policy-makers and planners.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780801822735
Publisher:	Johns Hopkins University Press
Publication date:	02/17/1978
Pages:	256
Product dimensions:	6.00(w) x 9.00(h) x 0.58(d)
Age Range:	18 Years

About the Author

William Ascher is a professor and director of the Center for International Development Research at the Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy at Duke University. He is the author of Natural Resource Policymaking in Developing Countries and Communities and Sustainable Forestry in Developing Countries.