Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making

An expert explains how conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into trouble—and why experience can’t be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methods.

In making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze every option? When should we use our intuition and when should we rely on logic and statistics? Most of us would probably agree that for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelines—gather as much information as possible, compa...