Surface: Volatility of Volatility

Surface: Volatility of Volatility

by Paul Cottrell

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Surface: Volatility of Volatility by Paul Cottrell

There is a lack of research in the area of hedging future contracts, especially in illiquid or very volatile market conditions. It is important to understand the volatility of the oil and currency markets because reduced fluctuations in these markets could lead to better hedging performance. This study compared different hedging methods by using a hedging error metric, supplementing the Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming (RHCSP) method by utilizing the London Interbank Offered Rate with the Levy process. The RHCSP hedging method was investigated to determine if improved hedging error was accomplished compared to the Black–Scholes, Leland, and Whalley and Wilmott methods when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. A modified RHCSP method was also investigated to determine if this method could significantly reduce hedging error under extreme market illiquidity conditions when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. This quantitative study used chaos theory and emergence for its theoretical foundation. An experimental research method was utilized for this study with a sample size of 506 hedging errors pertaining to historical and simulation data. The historical data were from January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2012. The modified RHCSP method was found to significantly reduce hedging error for the oil and currency market futures by the use of a 2-way ANOVA with a t test and post hoc Tukey test. This study promotes positive social change by identifying better risk controls for investment portfolios and illustrating how to benefit from high volatility in markets. Economists, professional investment managers, and independent investors could benefit from the findings of this study.

Product Details

BN ID: 2940150763388
Publisher: Paul Cottrell
Publication date: 02/25/2015
Sold by: Barnes & Noble
Format: NOOK Book
File size: 1 MB

About the Author

Paul Cottrell is a researcher in chaos theory and has interests in modeling financial markets. Some have considered him a polymath of sorts. Born in Detroit, Michigan he has extensive professional experience in automotive engineering and design. After retiring from automotive engineering he pursued interests in corporate finance involving the publication and non-profit industries. He currently is a proprietary trader specializing in currency and energy markets. Through his research and development company, Paul Cottrell has developed a trading software platform that utilizes artificial intelligence and virtual reality. He also dedicates some of his time at a large non-profit in New York City. In addition to modeling financial markets, his other research interests are in developmental economics, behavioral finance, complexity science, energy markets, and risk management. Born and raised Jewish, he is a proponent for anti-theism in the vein of Christopher Hitchens. He has earned a Ph.D. in finance from Walden University, as well as obtaining a M.B.A. and B.Sc. from Wayne State University. He Currently lives in New York, NY.
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