The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: An Evolutionary Approach to Understanding Financial System Dynamics

The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH) presents a formal and systematic exposition of a new narrative about financial markets that reconciles rational investor behavior with periods of temporary financial insanity. In this narrative, intelligent but fallible investors learn from and adapt to randomly shifting environments. Financial markets may not always be efficient, but they are highly competitive, innovative, and adaptive, varying in their degree of efficiency as investor populations and...