The End of Epidemics: The Looming Threat to Humanity and How to Stop It

by Jonathan D. Quick, Bronwyn Fryer

Overview

“Jonathan Quick offers a compelling and intensely readable plan to prevent worldwide infectious outbreaks. The End of Epidemics is essential reading for those who might be affected by a future pandemic—that is, just about everyone.”—Sandeep Jauhar, bestselling author of Heart: A History

The 2020 outbreak of coronavirus has terrified the world—and revealed how unprepared we are for the next outbreak of an infectious disease. Somewhere in nature, a killer virus is boiling up in the bloodstream of a bird, bat, monkey, or pig, preparing to jump to a human being. This not-yet-detected germ has the potential to wipe out millions of lives over a matter of weeks or months. That risk makes the threat posed by ISIS, a ground war, a massive climate event, or even the dropping of a nuclear bomb on a major city pale in comparison.

In The End of Epidemics, Duke Global Health Institute faculty member and past Chair of the Global Health Council Dr. Jonathan D. Quick examines the eradication of smallpox and devastating effects of influenza, AIDS, SARS, Ebola, and other viral diseases . Analyzing local and global efforts to contain these diseases and citing firsthand accounts of failure and success, Dr. Quick proposes a new set of actions which he has coined "The Power of Seven," to end epidemics before they can begin. These actions include:

- Spending prudently to prevent disease before an epidemic strikes, rather than spending too little, too late
- Ensuring prompt, open, and accurate communication between nations and aid agencies, instead of secrecy and territorial disputes
- Fighting disease and preventing panic with innovation and good science

Practical and urgent, The End of Epidemics is crucial reading for citizens, health professionals, and policy makers alike.

“Dr. Quick’s urgent message makes one hope that this book will reach a huge audience and that its exhortations will be acted on everywhere.”—The Wall Street Journal

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9781250117779
Publisher:	St. Martin's Publishing Group
Publication date:	01/30/2018
Pages:	304
Product dimensions:	6.20(w) x 9.30(h) x 1.10(d)

About the Author

DR. JONATHAN D. QUICK is Senior Fellow and former president and CEO at Management Sciences for Health in Boston. He is an instructor of medicine at the Department of Global Health and Social Medicine at Harvard Medical School and Chair of the Global Health Council. He has worked in more than seventy countries. He lives in Massachusetts.

BRONWYN FRYER is a collaborative writer and a former senior editor for the Harvard Business Review. She lives in Montpelier, Vermont.

Table of Contents

Acronyms xi

Prologue: A Fear I'd Never Felt Before 1

What can be done to stop the next killer virus from destroying millions of lives?

Part I The Pandemic Threat

1 Stop Epidemics with The Power of Seven 9

We can end epidemics with seven sets of concrete actions proven over a century of epidemic response.

2 The Bush-Lessons from Ebola, AIDS, and Zika 25

How deforestation, climate change, and population movement are turning wildlife into pandemic incubators.

3 The Barn 42

Our global animal food industry and the renegade influenza viruses it spawns could one day annihilate the people it feeds.

4 The Triple Threat: Bioterror, Bio-Error, and Dr. Frankenstein 57

The threat of an epidemic unleashed by terrorists, lab errors, or irresponsible scientists has never been greater.

5 The Costs of Complacency 78

In addition to millions of deaths worldwide, we could face global recession and massive social upheaval.

Part II Stopping Pandemics Before they Start

6 Lead Like the House Is on Fire 95

When leaders work with urgency, decisiveness, and courage, they can defeat the deadliest viral enemies.

7 Resilient Systems, Global Security 111

Strong national public-health systems and robust international agencies can ensure health security for all.

8 Active Prevention, Constant Readiness 129

Vaccines, mosquito control, and other preventive measures will stop killer diseases before they spread. Constant readiness to respond will save lives.

9 Fatal Fictions, Timely Truths 149

Trustworthy communications, close listening, and local engagement are the best weapons for fighting disease and quelling rumors, blame, distrust, and panic.

10 Disruptive Innovation, Collaborative Transformation 174

Breakthrough innovations bring new tools for preventing, controlling, and eliminating infectious-disease threats.

11 Invest Wisely, Save Lives 194

The equivalent of just $1 per year for every person on the planet ($7.5 billion annually) will save lives and pay for itself in lower emergency costs and reduced economic disruption.

12 Ring the Alarm, Rouse the Leaders 212

Citizen activists and social movements must mobilize the public and hold leaders' feet to the fire.

Epilogue: Headlines from the Future 229

The threat is imminent The pathway is known. The time for action is now.

Acknowledgments 237

Notes 241

Index 275

Editorial Reviews

11/13/2017
Quick, a senior fellow at Management Sciences for Health, and Fryer, a former senior editor for the Harvard Business Review, lay out a seven-step action plan for stopping epidemics in this informative, if stiff, treatise. The plan is based on their analysis of global response to five epidemics (smallpox, influenza, AIDS, SARS, and Ebola), which have killed more than 500 million people over the last century. The authors urge nations to learn from past mistakes in dealing with killer diseases and to make pandemic prevention a global priority. They argue that this can be accomplished by developing a worldwide early warning system and a network of response teams. Presenting the cost of epidemics both in terms of lives and dollars, Quick and Fryer estimate that countries can expect to spend a trillion dollars over the next decade and that the next worldwide pandemic could cost the global economy up to $2.5 trillion. However, by adopting “the right preventive and response measures at the right times,” that loss will be substantially reduced. Without excess alarmism, Quick and Fryer show that such factors as climate change, terrorism, and the global food system put the next pandemic just around the corner. Agent: Todd Shuster, Aevitas. (Jan.)

Publishers Weekly

Once in a while, we get a state-of-the-art synthesis of the complex problem of epidemics. Once in a very great while, such a summary is informed by deep experience battling them and by both passion and pragmatism. Only rarely—and this is the case in Quick’s The End of Epidemics—is such an informed synthesis as readable as it is informed and as humane as it is pragmatic. The result is inspiring.” —Paul Farmer, MD, Harvard Medical School, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Partners In Health

“Dr. Quick makes a compelling case for the public and private sector to elevate their work on preparation, response, and rehabilitation around epidemics. The End of Epidemics makes the case from a social and an economic perspective that we have a collective responsibility to take action now.”—Paul Polman, Chief Executive Officer, Unilever

“A down-to-earth account of what we know about epidemics, packaged wisely in seven basic recommendations for action. The End of Epidemics proposes a new marriage of stakeholders: patients, communities, industry, doctors, political leaders, NGOs, and philanthropies. Must-read!”—Dr. Joanne Liu, International President, MSF (Doctors Without Borders)

“Rich in stories, The End of Epidemics is a powerful wake-up call to get serious about epidemic threats. Quick offers down-to-earth solutions to prevent small and mega pandemics a hundred years after the catastrophic 1918 Spanish flu.”—Professor Peter Piot, Director, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

“The End of Epidemics presents the challenge represented by global epidemiological risks and offers a convincing set of prescriptions to address them. It is a captivating book that combines the best public health evidence with compelling real-life stories.”—Dr. Julio Frenk, President, University of Miami; former Minister of Health, Mexico; and former Dean, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

“The End of Epidemics presents actions, insights, and a compelling tale of how individuals—whether citizens or leaders—can stand together with science and innovation to slow or stop the ever-present risk of disease outbreaks and epidemics. His message: the Power of Seven, the power of one, the power of many.”—Dr. Heidi Larsen, Director, Vaccine Confidence Project

“Jonathan Quick offers a compelling and intensely readable plan to prevent worldwide infectious outbreaks. The End of Epidemics is essential reading for those who might be affected by a future pandemic—that is, just about everyone.”—Sandeep Jauhar, bestselling author of Intern: A Doctor’s Initiation and Doctored: The Disillusionment of an American Physician

“Dr. Jonathan Quick has written an insightful, accessible, and personal history of modern epidemics, including such killers as smallpox and Ebola, and their dramatic impact on our lives and world. More importantly, Dr. Quick is not merely wringing his hands about the infectious catastrophes that are surely facing us, he focuses on the important actions needed to prevent social, economic, and health consequences of inattention. Governments, international institutions, the private sector, and civil society had better take heed: prepare and plan now—or pay the price, in dollars and lives, tomorrow.”
—Rear Admiral Kenneth Bernard, former senior official for Biodefense and Health Security under presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton

“Infectious disease outbreaks rival natural disasters and wars in their capacity to endanger human health, cripple economies, and disrupt societies. The End of Epidemics shows us that by learning from the past we can build a world more resilient to infectious disease. But we must act quickly.”
—Dr. Jeremy Farrar, Director, Wellcome Trust

“Quick is an internationally recognized leader in global heath—his focus on innovation and new technologies is vital to pandemic threat prevention and preparedness to save lives around the globe.”
—Dr. Rajiv Shah, President, Rockefeller Foundation

“Dr. Quick has written a fascinating book. Following decades of working in some of the world’s most epidemic-prone countries, he argues for scientific and public health developments that can save humanity from deadly microorganisms.”
—Dr. David Heymann, Professor, Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

“A well-documented and gripping account of the peril posed by pandemics. Dr. Quick, a global health leader from the front lines of the AIDS and Ebola [epidemics], weaves rich historical facts and decades of personal experience to ring the alarm over the pandemic threat.”
—Dr. Ariel Pablos Mendez, former head of Global Health, U.S. Agency for International Development

"Sobering reading for public health officials and infectious disease students and perhaps inspiration for would-be activists to get busy. For general readers: get your flu shot." - Kirkus Reviews

"[I]nformative...Without excess alarmism, Quick and Fryer show that such factors as climate change, terrorism, and the global food system put the next pandemic just around the corner." - Publishers Weekly

"For readers interested in their own well-being and public health as well as ways to advocate for issues of great concern and urgency." - Library Journal

"Pragmatic, insightful and research-rich, this is a key volume for the policymaker’s shelf." - Nature Magazine

"What makes the book a good, highly readable primer are its convincing examples and vivid human stories" - The Economist

From the Publisher

2017-10-30
A veteran global health professional explores the methods for preventing pandemics, an ever present threat to humankind.Quick, an instructor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and chair of the Global Health Council, begins by assessing the many threats: overpopulation and expanded mobility thanks to travel or as a result of war; economic failings; weather disasters that lead to migrant movements and often end with malnourished masses in unsanitary camps; bioterrorism (it is remarkably easy to make ricin or spread anthrax); global warming, which is creating new environs for mosquitoes and other disease bearers; and factory farming, which is already leading to massive destructions of flocks to control bird flu. As a solution, the author offers his "Power of Seven" precepts: strong national leadership; resilient health care systems; research to promote active prevention and constant readiness; trustworthy communications; scientific innovation; resources and investment; strong networks of citizen activists (see what ACT UP volunteers were able to accomplish in the fight against AIDS). These are all fine approaches, and Quick's chapters elaborating past failures when one or more of these guidelines was lacking are exemplary, as are his success stories. But are they viable in today's world? For these approaches to work, there would need to be significant political will, doubtful given the trends toward authoritarian and xenophobic regimes. Perhaps the greater hurdle is the polarization of society and a growing lack of trust. The anti-vaccination believers and the West African communities who killed the medical workers who came to tell them not to touch their Ebola-dead relatives are painful examples of fear and distrust that no amount of reason will reverse. What can work is better communication at a local level, from peers. Another positive Quick points to is the success achieved through broad public-private collaborations, which have increased worldwide vaccination rates and expanded access to AIDS drugs in Africa.Sobering reading for public health officials and infectious disease students and perhaps inspiration for would-be activists to get busy. For general readers: get your flu shot.

Kirkus Reviews