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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER• The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation’s foremost political forecaster

One of The Wall Street Journal’s Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year

“Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”—The New York Times Book Review

Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident pr...