The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future

by Laurence C. Smith

Overview

“A compelling portrait of the future and vividly relates the big challenges facing the world now.”—Jared Diamond, New York Times bestselling author of Collapse and Guns, Germs, and Steel

The world's population is exploding, wild species are vanishing, and our environment is degrading. What kind of world are we leaving for our children and grandchildren? Just who will flourish—and who will fail—in our evolving world?

Combining the lessons of geography and history with state-of-the-art model projections and analytical data, Guggenheim fellow Laurence C. Smith predicts how the eight nations of the Arctic Rim (including the United States) will become increasingly powerful while the nations around the equator struggle for survival. Like Bjorn Lomborg's The Skeptical Environmentalist, The World in 2050 is as credible as it is controversial, projecting the looming benefits as well as the problems of climate change.

Product Details

ISBN-13:	9780452297470
Publisher:	Penguin Publishing Group
Publication date:	10/25/2011
Pages:	352
Sales rank:	978,054
Product dimensions:	5.32(w) x 7.94(h) x 0.80(d)
Age Range:	18 Years

About the Author

Laurence C. Smith earned his PhD at Cornell University, and is now professor and vice-chairman of geography and earth space sciences at the University of California in Los Angeles where he also lives.

What People are Saying About This

From the Publisher

"[The World in 2050] is a lively and impressive book, among the first in what promises to be an important publishing category, the explication of how the human landscape will be altered by artificially triggered climate change."
-Wall Street Journal

"Smith's planetary palm-reading would be impressive enough, but he also managed to pull it off with literary gusto. He combines a wide-angle-lens analysis reminiscent of Jared Diamond with a knack for narrative, including tales of numerous visits to the Arctic."
-New Scientist

"Cleverly executed."
-Mother Jones

"One of the most head-turning books I've ever come across recently."
-Thomas PM Barnett, World Politics Review

"A charismatic rising star vividly relates the big challenges facing the world."
-Jared Diamond, author of the Pulitzer Prize winner Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse

"This is a blockbuster of clear argument, sophisticated use of multiple empirical sources, and cogent writing that makes a convincing case for the emergence of the deep Global North as the main beneficiary of emerging climatic and economic trends. Intelligently discussing the future requires exactly the balance of discerning empirical analysis and wise interpretive judgment to be found here."
-John Agnew, Professor of Geography UC, Los Angeles

Editorial Reviews

"[The World in 2050] is a lively and impressive book, among the first in what promises to be an important publishing category, the explication of how the human landscape will be altered by artificially triggered climate change."
-Wall Street Journal

"Smith's planetary palm-reading would be impressive enough, but he also managed to pull it off with literary gusto. He combines a wide-angle-lens analysis reminiscent of Jared Diamond with a knack for narrative, including tales of numerous visits to the Arctic."
-New Scientist

"Cleverly executed."
-Mother Jones

"One of the most head-turning books I've ever come across recently."
-Thomas PM Barnett, World Politics Review

"A charismatic rising star vividly relates the big challenges facing the world."
-Jared Diamond, author of the Pulitzer Prize winner Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse

"This is a blockbuster of clear argument, sophisticated use of multiple empirical sources, and cogent writing that makes a convincing case for the emergence of the deep Global North as the main beneficiary of emerging climatic and economic trends. Intelligently discussing the future requires exactly the balance of discerning empirical analysis and wise interpretive judgment to be found here."
-John Agnew, Professor of Geography UC, Los Angeles

From the Publisher

Smith, a UCLA geography professor, explores megatrends through computer model projections to describe "with reasonable scientific credibility, what our world might look like in forty years' time, should things continue as they are now." Laying out "ground rules" for himself--including an assumption of incremental advances rather than big technology breakthroughs and no accounting for "hidden genies" such as a decades-long depression or meteorite impact--he identifies four global forces likely to determine our future: human population growth and migration; growing demand for control over such natural resource "services" as photosynthesis and bee pollination; globalization; and climate change. He sees the "New North" as "something like America in 1803, just after the Louisiana Purchase... harsh, dangerous, and ecologically fragile." Aside from his observations of "a profound return of autonomy and dignity to many aboriginal people" through increasing political power and integration into the global economy, Smith's predictions, limited by his conservative rules, are far from earthshaking, and suspending his rules for a chapter, he admits that "the physics of sliding glaciers and ice sheet collapses" as well as melting permafrost methane release are beyond current models, and that even globalization could reverse, with "political genies even harder to anticipate than permafrost ones." (Oct.)

Publishers Weekly

Smith (geography, Univ. of California-Los Angeles) presents a world shaped by demography, resource demand, globalization, and climate change in which people, agriculture, and political power move northward. Northern Rim countries will flourish as equatorial countries struggle. Water scarcity, heat waves, energy needs, and urban growth figure prominently in Smith's discussions, which, at their core, address the complex relationships among people, the natural world, the built environment, and technology. He effectively uses personal experiences, maps, photos, and analogies to make science accessible and interesting to the nonscientist. Although Smith offers reasons to feel upbeat about a world undergoing forceful changes, he also presents a future full of challenges and solutions that may create difficulties of their own. The notes are a useful addition for readers interested in Smith's research. VERDICT Smith demonstrates the breadth of geography and emerges as a champion of the discipline. His engaging style and understandable prose will appeal to a wide range of readers interested in social and environmental sciences. Recommended for both public and academic libraries.—Robin K. Dillow, Oakton Community Coll., Des Plaines, IL

Library Journal