A Risk Manifesto: Decisions in the Face of Material Events

Geopolitical realignment, climate disruption, demographic shifts, and technological transformation present risks with no historical precedent. Pension systems are breaking under the weight of aging populations. Semiconductor production concentrates in a single geopolitical flashpoint. AI is reshaping everything from energy demand to the future of work to the waging of war.

These are not future risks. They exist now. Yet our current approaches toward risk cannot see them, leaving institutio...