Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections

A sweeping look at the messy and contentious past of US presidential pre-election polls and why they aren’t as reliable as we think.

Polls in U.S. presidential elections can and do get it wrong—as surprising outcomes in 2020, in 2016, in 2012, in 2004, in 2000 all remind us. Lost in a Gallup captures in lively and unprecedented fashion the stories of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in presidential elections since 1936. Polling’s checkered record in ...