Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House

Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House

by Allan J. Lichtman


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In the days after Donald Trump's unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections, Lichtman had been predicting Trump's win since September 2016. In the updated 2020 edition of this classic text, Lichtman applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

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Product Details

ISBN-13: 9781538148655
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
Publication date: 08/07/2020
Edition description: 2020
Pages: 240
Sales rank: 712,271
Product dimensions: 5.90(w) x 8.90(h) x 0.90(d)

About the Author

Allan J. Lichtman teaches history at American University in Washington, D.C. He is a regular political analyst for CNN Headline News and also provides political commentary for national networks and newspapers. He is the author of White Protestant Nation: The Rise of the American Conservative Movement. He has published more than one hundred scholarly and popular articles that have appeared in such journals and newspapers as the American Historical Review, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, New Republic, Washington Monthly, New York Times, Washington Post, Christian Science Monitor, and Los Angeles Times.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Logic of the Keys: How Presidential Elections Really Work
Chapter 2: Turning the Keys to the Presidency
Chapter 3: Civil War and Reconstruction
Chapter 4: The Gilded Age
Chapter 5: Rise and Fall of Progressivism
Chapter 6: Depression, War, and Cold War
Chapter 7: New Directions, War, and Scandal
Chapter 8: The Reagan and Beyond
Chapter 9: A False Dawn for Democrats: 1996-2004
Chapter 10: The Winds of Political Change: 2008
Chapter 11: Stability in the White House 2012
Chapter 12: The Obama Legacy Repudiated: Where the Keys Stand for 2020
Chapter 13: Lessons of the Keys: Toward a New Presidential Politics

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